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EARTHQUAKES (>=7) 2012 SOLAR CLIMATE CHANGE
Solar Climate Change: Did Far Side CME Trigger M7.1 Earthquake Today?
Monday, December 10th 2012, 5:08 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentI was trying to find the source of the strong Indonesian M7.1 Earthquake today and true to form for this type of event I managed to find a CME. This time however rather then having a Solar Flare on the Earth facing side it would seem to be a CME on the far side, confirming what Piers has said all along, it's NOT the area of the Sun that has the CME it's the hole that is facing Earth, as a guess it's the Unstable Filament of Magnetism in area AR 1621 to AR 1623

This report from SolarHam.net, and again they make the same mistake as Spaceweather.com about the CME not facing us.

Farside CME / Solar Update by Kevin VE3EN...SolarHam.net

A new active region currently transiting the farside of the Sun erupted this afternoon. A bright Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is currently visible in the latest STEREO Ahead COR2 images. Because this is a farsided event, there will be no impact on Earth.
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Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 5:49 PM EST
"I was trying to find the source of the strong Indonesian M7.1 Earthquake today and true to form for this type of event I managed to find a CME."

CME time: 20:09 UTC
Mag 7.1 time: 16:53 UTC

Brilliant work Gabe, your backside CME defeats the laws of time !!
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 6:02 PM EST
You may, whatever it is you may do.

I try and find a cause for an event and not the other way around.

It's the way I work, if there is a Typhoon that goes from Cat 1 to Cat 4 I look for a reason.

In this respect I came across a M7.1 and it happened at the same time as a CME.

The fact is you can't have a Typoon going from Ca1 to Cat 4 or an Earthquake that is over M6.5 without an external influence.

Once you decide to put together a theory you stick with it, and if it does not work you leave it.

I have stuck with this as I dont find it difficult to trace the source to the Sun.

You seem to think you can use part of an idea and then add other stuff to make your theory work.

I dont do that, and neither does Piers

If you find that being far removed from your idea so be it.

The end of the Solar event was the Eruption, your assuming the "end" is always the one and only situation going on.

There are other things happening in the "build up" to the Solar Eruption, it's not that difficult to assume that is it!
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 6:09 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:

"In this respect I came across a M7.1 and it happened at the same time as a CME."

READ MY LAST COMMENT, THE CME WAS 3 HOURS+ AFTER THE EQ !!!!!

Co2sceptic said:

"You seem to think you can use part of an idea and then add other stuff to make your theory work."

Is purely a projection of what you are doing with Piers' work. My work is solely my own and without influence or inspiration from anyone else thanks.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 6:22 PM EST
Ulric

You missed my point......

I said.......The end of the Solar event was the Eruption, your assuming the "end" is always the one and only situation going on.

There are other things happening in the "build up" to the Solar Eruption, it's not that difficult to assume that is it!

I cant put forward M6.5 Earthquakes or other events such as Cat 4 Typhoons some of the time, I have to put them forward ALL of the time with the same result/conclusions.

Today was a very good example of a CME being on the far side of the Sun and yet there was an effect felt on the Earth.

If I had not reported the M7.1 and also not mentioned there was a CME I would have not been honest in what I have done or Piers had done for the past few years.

The "build up" to a CME is very much part of the event, sure the end result is the solar flare but there are ather things going on and not just the eruption
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 6:55 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"The "build up" to a CME is very much part of the event, sure the end result is the solar flare but there are ather things going on and not just the eruption"


So how about changing the name of this article to:

"Did Other Things Going On A few Hours Before Far Side CME Trigger M7.1 Earthquake Today?"

Well to be honest, I don't think the correlation between CME's and EQ's is any good in the first place (and yes, I have the time to look at stacks of data to see if there is any meaningful relationship over time). And I think you owe us an explanation of what these other things going on before the CME are exactly, and why that should trigger the EQ before the CME.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 7:07 PM EST
In a word:

Magnetism

Thats whats going on, its invisible, it has no light, no sound, no smell, you cant see it, but it's there, this is what is comming out of those coronal holes, the wiz bang of the eruption is just a red herring. Sure if there is a eruption that is Earth facing then there is a bigger effect, but its the Magnetism not the eruption, if im talking *censored* let me know:)

You should know this stuff.

The 22 year Hale cycle is down to the result of a magnetic effect on the Earth, thats why the 11 year cycle has no real temperature record
REPORT
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Dec 10th 2012, 7:29 PM EST
Some observations I have. Large CH earth facing.

C5 0558 UT Dec10 the biggest flare since 7th (C3) that was the date of M7.3 i n Japan. Long duration flare that day followed within an hour and was bookened by the NZ quake towards the end. Kp for that day was 0. KP today was about 0 aroung the time of quake.

Back to today flux in theta+bz noted just before 1600utc. Notable amplitude change before settling down in recent hours.

Low solar wind past few days and I observed earlier today a lull in M5 quakes. I often observe this prior to the big ones. Very much as Ulrich wrt build up of tension on an earlier thread.

Always worth looking at lower mag as they do show the'shift' in tension around the bigger quakes. Like taking a deep breath, holding then releasing.

Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) for poor wording on Monday December 10, 2012 at 7:43 PM EST

Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) for more poor wording on Monday December 10, 2012 at 7:49 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 7:36 PM EST
@Co2sceptic

I did notice some while back that EQ's were often occurring when there were Earth facing coronal holes, and thought that possibly the open field lines from them may causing a direct linkage with Earth. I'm not so sure the forces are great enough though, and after checking the numbers, it was happening barely 50% of the time. Since then I have found a far more consistent and meaningful correlation, and I now understand the Earth facing CH's to be just a proxy for this.
As regards the relevance of the Hale cycle, I have never agreed with Piers over this, and I regard amounts of activity not magnetic phase to be the decisive factor. It is not the magnetic phase that tends to make even numbered cycles produce less warming, it is the planetary configuration that produces an even numbered cycle that fails to raise solar activity as much, and this lower level of activity leads to less warming.
It is possible to show where even numbered cycles will be strong, and where odd numbered cycles were weak, as the LIA, giving strength to the suggestion that amounts are more important than phase.

Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Monday December 10, 2012 at 7:36 PM EST

Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Monday December 10, 2012 at 7:38 PM EST

Comment edited by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Monday December 10, 2012 at 7:39 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Dec 10th 2012, 7:39 PM EST
Michele Casati September 24, 2012:

December9-10 Input New Moon and lunar perigee of 13 and 12 respectively

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/03/20/michele-casati-acapulco-earthquake-successfully-predicted/#comment-37520

also

The solar wind is the main parameter to evaluate the global seismic risk.Raffaele Bendandi say :“…Alignments outer planets – planets inside the solar system very dangerous……”….when sw <400/350 km / s.

http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2012/10/28/giant-earthquake-causes-rise-in-world-seismic-action/
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 10th 2012, 8:06 PM EST
Craig M quoted:
"The solar wind is the main parameter to evaluate the global seismic risk"

Exactly.
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 11th 2012, 10:29 AM EST
Co2sceptic said:

"..it's NOT the area of the Sun that has the CME it's the hole that is facing Earth.."

There has been no Earth facing holes since the 7th.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 11th 2012, 11:56 AM EST
Ulric

What your saying is that the CME and the M7.1 Earthquake were a coincidence and other episodes similar to the events on or before the 10th December and in fact similar events in the future will also be a coincidence as your understanding of this situation does not incorpotate CME events without known Coronal Holes.

OK, this event and others are just coincidental and only your understanding may apply to events in the future. So be it until it happens again then

The understanding that Piers has about CORONAL HOLES BEING AVAILABLE at that time, allows for the event on the 10th December and also events in the past and again in the future, so he would argue with you that there WAS A CORONAL HOLE, and what followed was NOT A COINCIDENCE

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Tuesday December 11, 2012 at 12:09 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Dec 11th 2012, 12:50 PM EST
A sliver of a CH can be seen entering centre disc

10th
http://www.sepc.ac.cn/uploads/share3/SDO_AIA_IMG/2012/12/20121210.121918.png

11th
http://www.sepc.ac.cn/uploads/share3/SDO_AIA_IMG/2012/12/20121211.122006.png

Nothing like on the 7th but if the CH is a proxy we would expect variance. The Sendai quake had monster CH not that I am saying this was cause (i.e. solar wind etc)

http://spaceweather.com/images2011/11mar11/coronalhole_sdo_blank.jpg?PHPSESSID=9rpf1274iomqj4eni3r1ov85i5

This was preceded by an x1.5 flare on 9th.

When my pc is repaired I will go back upon this year and see what if anything pops out - I hope to do a vid too. Certainly when I followed the various parameters put forward here, by Piers and on TBs site I am drawn to all the ideas having merit. No single area stands out but rather a combination of factors the effects of which are dependent upon phasing.

To put it another way it's like saying northern blocking causes deep n european cold which it can but it is just one ingredient of many.

Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) to add Kobe info on Tuesday December 11, 2012 at 12:56 PM EST

Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) to fix link on Tuesday December 11, 2012 at 1:00 PM EST

Comment edited by Craig M (Twitter) as Kobe was 1995 not 2011 doh! on Tuesday December 11, 2012 at 1:02 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 11th 2012, 3:13 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"..your understanding of this situation does not incorpotate CME events without known Coronal Holes."

I mainly look at lots of past data and see what the significance is.
It can save a lot of barking up the wrong tree.

Co2sceptic said:
"The understanding that Piers has about CORONAL HOLES BEING AVAILABLE at that time, allows for the event on the 10th December and also events in the past and again in the future, so he would argue with you that there WAS A CORONAL HOLE, and what followed was NOT A COINCIDENCE"

Really the forecast specification is for Earth facing coronal holes +/- a day, not 3 days later when the (very weak) coronal hole stream reached Earth:
http://www.solen.info/solar/coronal_holes.html
By the 10th you're into the next QV period of the 10/11th.

This is though rather messy stuff, half the time you'll see bigger EQ's go off when the solar wind has slowed for a few days, and half the time the bigger EQ's will happen in the first day or two of a faster solar wind following a slow period. The common denominator is the period of declining and low solar wind speed, particularly when it gets below 300km/s.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 11th 2012, 5:35 PM EST
Ah, I see where you going on this, no the events seem to be sooner then a few days, in fact I would say a matter of hours.

I have never got my head around this either, but the solar wind may well be to do with temperature changes rather the climatic ones.

Yes I agree after a couple of days there seems to be a change of temps, but the change I locate is a more tangible one, and that I'm sure is from magnetic connections, whatever and however it happens its very fast.

What you may well have convinced yourself about is that temperature changes are the cause of other changes and I can see how you arrived at this conclusion. But that does not explain how Tropical storms power up in the short space of time that they do.
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