For the past few days we have reported that Cyclone "Even" has powered up and we stated this was regarded as a sign of some powerful solar activity taking place. Today there was a report of a CME, and although not reported as being significant and again noted as not facing Earth, we have a M6.3 Earthquake, this time located around California.
We have seen this pattern of events before and no doubt see it again in the future. Note the Proton Flux chart above indicating the timing of the CME falling inside the Piers Corbyn R4 period published at this site on the 10th December, for those wanting to split hairs on the exact timing of events, it is the "build up" of the CME rather then the actual eruption that is the key to this, and also the coronal hole facing Earth not the location of the CME....more to follow
A strong earthquake struck off the southwestern coast of California early Friday morning, according to the United States Geological Survey.
It was a 6.3-magnitude earthquake that rattled at 2:36 a.m. PST Friday. The epicenter was 163 miles south-southwest of Avalon, Calif. The quake occurred at a depth of 7.0 miles...click accuweather.com link for more
See YouTube from Stereo via SolarHam.net below
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A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is visible in the latest STEREO Ahead imagery this morning and was the result of a prominence eruption near the western limb. The plasma cloud looks to be headed mostly towards the west.
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 14th 2012, 10:04 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"This time I hope you agree.."
To do good science you have to try to disprove your hypothesis. In this case, the Earth facing coronal hole correlation with quakes was originally my correlation, and I have already disproved it.
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 15th 2012, 12:36 AM EST
OK, it seems that was duff information on the CME on the 10th Dec on your M7.1 article. The main part of the CME was from 16:12UTC, 41 minutes before the M7.1 quake, and the duration of the CME was >6hrs
http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/CME0017/CME.html
Please be my guest and keep track of how many times this "coincidence" is taking place.
The "science" behind this or these events has been worked on over the past 30 years by Piers, its not as if my part on this site showing the development of Tropical Storms associating them to solar activity and then showing a result that ties in a CME with an Earthquke is a "one off".
I will continue to show these "coincidences" and try and answer your and other peoples criticism as best as I can. Sometimes the answers to a problem can stare you in the face and although I am not a astrophysicist, I do have "Bookmakers Intuition" and the odds are very much in favour of what is currently described by you and others as a just a "coincidence" as being related, a relationship that is highly significant!
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 15th 2012, 8:32 AM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"..and the odds are very much in favour of what is currently described by you and others as a just a "coincidence" as being related, a relationship that is highly significant!
"
Well it is not highly significant for Earth facing coronal holes and EQ's, I have already looked at the numbers. If you think the correlation of CME's with larger EQ's is any better, have a look at a few years worth of past data, then we can decide much sooner.
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Dec 15th 2012, 5:13 PM EST
M6.0 PNG 19:30:03.0 UTC
ECUADOR - A sudden strong ash explosion occurred at Tungurahua volcano in Ecuador today at 14:35 local time (-5/6 GMT). According to local reports, the eruption produced an ash plume rising to 6 km altitude
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 15th 2012, 7:27 PM EST
Ulric
Thanks for the recent emails etc. Until I can see the work sheet you have made I can't make any comment on your findings.
All I can stress is that what I put up on this site in regard to CME and Earthquakes (M6.5+) that happen during R4+ or R5+ is that there IS a high correlation.
It could be your using another way of extracting the data, even if I look back acouple of months it comes out very high.
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 15th 2012, 10:49 PM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"All I can stress is that what I put up on this site in regard to CME and Earthquakes (M6.5+) that happen during R4+ or R5+ is that there IS a high correlation."
Gabe, I gave you the stats for the whole of this year to date, and there IS NO good correlation between Mag6.5+ EQ's and R5 periods, it comes out at close to chance.
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 16th 2012, 2:58 AM EST
Ulric
You have not done anything other then state your case, I could phone up William Hill and tell them I picked all yesterdays winners on the same way, so unless you can back up what you have said it's just talk
Show me your results for the last two months in this comment section and let me see how you have broken your analysis down
Posted by Ulric Lyons (forum) on Dec 16th 2012, 8:31 AM EST
Co2sceptic said:
"You have not done anything other then state your case, I could phone up William Hill and tell them I picked all yesterdays winners on the same way, so unless you can back up what you have said it's just talk"
I gave you the real statistics for 2012, of Mag6.5+ EQ's within Piers' R5 periods.
Maybe you should get more sleep and think you replies through before posting, you are making a fool of yourself.
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Dec 16th 2012, 8:55 AM EST
CO2 I think all parameters should be recorded/noted as this is an infant science and in 10-20 yrs well look on all of us 'twats' ;-) I think there is alot going on but the difficulty is that many of the elements we are looking at are proxies. One thing I would say about planetary alignment - is this a chicken/egg scenario in the interplay with the sun? I think sw plays a key part but I feel something is missing. I may have said this before but I think there are different levels to this - big quakes and swarms. This year you have collected some good obs and I have been tracking the quakes since June 11. Be interesting to combine data and see what comes up...or
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Dec 16th 2012, 9:43 AM EST
Ulric
You have become a straw man, you cant back up what you have said with any real data, I cant take your word for what you have said in the same way William Hill would take my word about picking all the winners.
Lets all see what happens in the next few days for the new R5 period
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This time I hope you agree....the events are not over a few days they take place within a FEW HOURS!!!
It's all down to magnetism i.e magnetic connections between the Sun and Earth