Wednesday, January 2nd 2013, 2:37 PM EST
[Image/Graph -
SpaceWeather.com]
The above graph from SpaceWeather.com is clear that the NOAA-led Solar Cycle Prediction Panel (red line) had absurdly overestimated solar activity in the current cycle 24. I would say:
1. Looking at those NOAA predictions they were obviously daft with abrupt changes in smoothed slope and curvature which makes one wonder what procedures they used to make these estimates.
2. Low solar cycles generally are longer than strong ones so even though some are saying the peak of 24 may have now passed it is reasonable to expect another (low) peak in this cycle - maybe around turn of 2013-14.
NOTE in an even cycle the activity - temp correlation is much weaker than in an odd cycle. So even if sunspot numbers go up by some amount there can still be plenty of solar-lunar driven extra cold.
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Back in May 2008 The Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel decided that the maximum sunspot number would be 90 with the peak occurring in May 2013. I can't see that they've absurdly overestimated?