Forecast
Global average temperature is expected to remain between 0.28 °C and 0.59 °C (90% confidence range) above the long-term (1971-2000) average during the period 2013-2017, with values most likely to be about 0.43 °C higher than average (see blue curves in the Figure 1 below).
The warmest year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record in 1998, with a temperature of 0.40°C above long-term average. The forecast of continued global warming is largely driven by increasing levels of greenhouse gases.
Verification
Retrospective forecasts have been made from numerous dates in the past. Some of these are shown in the top global annual temperature forecast figure (white curves and red uncertainty regions from 1960, 1965, ..., 2005). Generally, the forecasts predict rises in temperatures similar to those observed (black curve). Many facets of the variability, such as the record warming caused by the large 1997-1998 El Niño and the cooling caused by the 2008 La Niña, are largely within the range of the predictions (red shading).
The following maps (Figure 3) compare observed (A) and forecast (B) surface temperatures (°C) for November 2006 to October 2011 relative to the 1971-2000 long-term average. Forecasts were made starting from November 2006. Stippling shows regions where the observed temperatures do not lie within the predicted range (5-95%) of the forecast.
Look at the foot of the above image "Last Updated 24th December", no doubt someone thought it was a good day to bury bad news!!!
H/T tallbloke.wordpress.com
Update:
Met Office forecast prior to adjustment
Click the following link to see BOTH forecasts as an overlay
http://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-0e9S3JvjWrg/UOmGJq06wYI/AAAAAAAABDY/3UHjSSHTfKo/s670/metOffice20112012DecadalForecast.gif
1%
13%
86%
Tweet Article
Post to Facebook
Print Article