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Astrophysics v Meteorology: Countdown to the "Coldest Thaw"!
Friday, January 25th 2013, 11:19 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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After reading John O'Sullavans Blundering British Met Office Now forecast Nations "Coldest Thaw" I thought I would try and keep track of this forecast, best of luck Piers.

Above latest Met Office forecast for widespread snow cover in the UK for Today and Tomorrow (Saturday 26th January) indicates....according to the Met office.....a thaw will take place very soon as there is a very warm weather system coming to the UK and starting from Sunday there will some heavy rain and warmer temperatures?

Piers is not so sure they have this correct as there is not much mobility going on, and the Atlantic front due to hit the UK does not look as if will pass through from West to the East of the UK in the way the Met Office have forecast......more to follow.

See below latest forecast for Sunday 27th January

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Image AttachmentMild and wet weather to bring thaw - Met Office

24 January 2013 - Parts of Britain will see further heavy snowfall on Friday before milder, wet and windy conditions bring a thaw, Met Office forecasters are predicting.

On Friday a band of rain will move across the UK from the west. This will turn to snow over much of Scotland during the morning and parts of northern, central and eastern England during the afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, western parts of the UK will see rain.

Over the weekend all parts will see a change to milder and unsettled conditions.

The change to milder weather will result in a combination of a thaw of lying snow and periods of rain which inevitably increases the risk of flooding in some areas. The Met Office and Environment Agency are monitoring the situation very closely and advise everyone to stay up to date with the latest weather forecasts, severe weather warnings, and flood warnings.

Met Office Severe Weather Warnings have been issued for both rain and snow over the coming days. Amber warnings for snow are in place across northern, central and eastern parts of the UK on Friday, where 4 to 8 cm of fresh snow is likely quite widely, with a risk of more than 10 cm in places.

Yellow warnings are in force for rain across some western areas on Friday and many parts on Sunday. Met Office weather warnings help you plan, prepare and protect yourself and others from the impacts of severe weather.

Anthony Astbury, Met Office Deputy Chief Forecaster, said: "Many northern, central and eastern parts of the UK look set to see the final fall of snow for this cold spell. Then we will see a change to milder and more unsettled conditions, as Atlantic weather systems bring spells of wind and rain, but also some drier brighter conditions at times.

"Everyone is advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings and plan ahead if they are travelling during this change from icy to mild conditions."



Phil Rothwell, Environment Agency Flood Risk Manager, said: "A combination of rain and snowmelt over the weekend will increase the risk of flooding especially in South West England, Wales, the west Midlands and northern England. We are closely monitoring the situation and have teams ready to respond to any potential flooding.

"People should check out if they are in a flood risk area, and sign up to free flood warnings on the Environment Agency website."

By thinking ahead we can all be better prepared for severe weather. Throughout the winter, the Met Office works with agencies across the UK to help keep the country safe, well and on the move.


Below 30 day Met Office forecast:




Headline:

Heavy snowfall to come later today, but eventually turning milder.

Today:

Rain, already into Northern Ireland and the far west of Scotland, will continue to move east, readily turning to snow across much of Scotland, northern and eastern England. Some heavy rain for southwest England and Wales. Dry in the southeast.

Tonight:

Rain and snow will continue to march eastwards and should clear southeast England by dawn. Becoming very windy across Northern Ireland and southern Scotland, with some rain returning here.

Saturday:

Early rain will gradually clear northern areas, although further rain will return to Northern Ireland later. Much of England and Wales should see a dry and bright day. Generally windy.

Updated: 0322 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Milder, but very unsettled throughout, with spells of heavy rain and strong winds affecting all areas. An increasing risk of seeing some flooding, as heavy rain combines with snowmelt.

Updated: 0322 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2013 to Friday 8 Feb 2013:

Unsettled weather throughout much of this period, with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer, showery interludes, for many areas and occasional hill snow in the north. The heaviest, and most prolonged spells of rain will tend to be in the west or southwest, with the best of any drier, brighter weather towards the east. It will also be windy at times, with a risk of gales, especially in the north and west, perhaps even severe gales in the far west and northwest. Generally mild at first, then temperatures falling close to the seasonal average in many parts, with overnight frosts in clearer, quieter spells and it will feel cold in the strong winds and rain.

Updated: 1130 on Fri 25 Jan 2013

UK Outlook for Saturday 9 Feb 2013 to Saturday 23 Feb 2013:

There are large uncertainties at this forecast range, however indications are that colder than average conditions will become more likely across all parts of the UK. Northwestern parts of the UK may well see drier than average conditions on the whole. Southern and eastern parts of the UK could see average or even greater than average amounts of precipitation.

Updated: 1157 on Fri 25 Jan 2013
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