Sunday, January 27th 2013, 8:54 AM EST
Before I go through the above Piers Corbyn "Red Warning" period for the end of January/Start of February it's worth looking at what the Met office has had to say for the same period. As you will see I have collected the past THREE days worth of forecasts just to show you how dificult it is for them to remain with a clear understanding as to what the weather will be at the end of next week.
Poor old Piers does not have this luxury, he nails his forecast to the mast and keeps it there unless the Sun does something unexpected, as it has done during so the past few days!
The latest Met Office forecast is at the top.... it looks to me they have read the WeatherAction.com forecast (but I could be wrong:)
This is the link for the Met Office 30 day forecast: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_alltext.html it updates twice a day, the following text will change
This is the Met Office UK Outlook for Friday 1 Feb 2013 to Sunday 10 Feb 2013: posted at 1123 on Sun 27 Jan 2013
Conditions are expected to remain unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by colder, clearer, showery conditions. Some heavy rain at times, with western parts perhaps seeing the heaviest and most persistent rain. Meanwhile, showers may be heavy at times and are also likely to be wintry, particularly over higher ground in the north, and increasingly so later in the period. Often on the windy side, risk occasional gales in the exposed north and west. Daytime temperatures often near normal but milder during the cloudier, rainy spells whilst during clearer, showery spells temperatures perhaps below average at times. Risk of frost by night during the clearer interludes, continuing ice risk where rain or showers persist overnight.
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This is the Met Office UK Outlook posted a day earlier for Thursday 31 Jan 2013 to Saturday 9 Feb 2013 posted 1207 on Sat 26 Jan 2013
Conditions late next week and onwards through the following week are expected to remain unsettled with spells of cloudy but milder weather with outbreaks of rain interspersed by clearer, showery interludes. Some heavy rain at times, with western parts perhaps seeing the heaviest and most persistent rain. Meanwhile, showers are also likely to be wintry over higher ground, especially later when showers may also turn wintry at times to some lower levels too. Often on the windy side, risk occasional gales in the exposed north and west. Daytime temperatures often near normal but milder during the cloudier, rainy spells whilst during clearer, showery spells temperatures perhaps below average at times later. Risk of frost by night during the clearer interludes.
And this is what they had to say TWO days ago:
UK Outlook for Wednesday 30 Jan 2013 to Friday 8 Feb 2013: Posted 1130 on Fri 25 Jan 2013
Unsettled weather throughout much of this period, with spells of rain, interspersed with clearer, showery interludes, for many areas and occasional hill snow in the north. The heaviest, and most prolonged spells of rain will tend to be in the west or southwest, with the best of any drier, brighter weather towards the east. It will also be windy at times, with a risk of gales, especially in the north and west, perhaps even severe gales in the far west and northwest. Generally mild at first, then temperatures falling close to the seasonal average in many parts, with overnight frosts in clearer, quieter spells and it will feel cold in the strong winds and rain.
So, you can see from the above how easy it is to make a week longrange forecast and change it each day.
Now the Piers Corbyn forecast for the End of January/Start Febuary
This is another top level event, an R5+ it is ROUND 2 for the R5+ we have seen already, this is the link for ROUND 1 Astrophysics v Meteorology (Piers Corbyn v Met Office) - Round 1 posted at CR 14th January
The following is posted on his website WeatherAction.com:
Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction said "Although the weather period 26-28 Jan has turned less-cold/ milder than our forecast we expect (75% confidence) a reversion to our forecast first issued 5 weeks ago in the next weather period which was Jan29 to Feb3 and which will be postponed a day or so. Standard Met Maps will become modified by effects of a renewed Sudden polar Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which upsets circulation and will give more N'ly blasts into Britain/Ireland & Europe. These developments are not obvious yet but it is noteworthy that the polar stratosphere temperarure is still well above normal* after our confirmed sudden very rapid warming around 17/18th Jan: * http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif
and solar wind is now fast: http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?month=01&day=26&year=2013&view=view
....more to follow soon
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