Wednesday, January 30th 2013, 12:19 PM EST
The SECOND Major Polar Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) predicted EFFECT*** in January (Jan/Feb) 2013 is now rapidly taking shape on WeatherAction cue to the day. Stratospheric temps (at 70mb pressure level 90N to 65N) have been and are now (around 29Jan) still just above record levels for this date. Standard weather models now look like WeatherAction long range forecasts for the very cold Northerly blasts, consequent on the SSW developments, in Europe (inc Brit+Ire) and USA - in the parts predicted by WeatherAction
StratoTemp (70mb) graph http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/70mb9065.gif
USA V cold blast http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/second-arctic-outbreak-on-the/5053763
UK MetO http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColor&fcTime=1359763200
Eu GFS (Wow!) http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=90&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=
Stratosphere Temp data sets http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/
Piers says "This spells pretty well simultaneos blizzards both sides of the Atlantic where and when we said to within a day from 30days (USA) and 45days (Br+Ire) ahead. It is a ground-breaking result. Doubtless various organisations will say they saw it coming when in reality they don't know which year these MAJOR SSW EFFECTS will happen let alone which day."
***Note on definitions. There are many data sets of stratosphere temperatures at different pressure levels and latitude ranges and they do NOT all move together, and eg peak at different times. At WeatherAction we have developed parameters to predict periods of when there will be circulation EFFECTS of associated preceding warming develpments in the stratosphere. What we do is not the same as predicting officially defined standard SSWs and our terminology used before did not make that clear - so we apologise for any puzzlements which may have arisen and have ammended the above report to clarify the situation.
We have a Polar SSW Effect (PSSWE) predictor and approximate timings of associated preceding warmings at some levels. The work is ongoing. For further discussion see Feedback Comments at my site using this link
See below latest forecast from the Met Office
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Link for Above Met Office 2-5 day forecast using images for UK - not a lot to worry about for Saturday and Sunday
Latest written forecast from the Met Office for same period
Headline:
Windy overnight with a band of heavy rain moving east.
This Evening and Tonight:
Most places becoming dry this evening with winds easing for a time, before a narrow band of heavy, squally rain quickly spreads east to all parts during the second half of the night, with snow across the Scottish mountains.
Thursday:
Overnight rain quickly clearing the south but persisting across Scotland with further hill snow. Otherwise very windy with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers, some of which heavy.
Updated: 1404 on Wed 30 Jan 2013
Outlook for Friday to Sunday:
Friday, wet and very windy in the south and wintry showers in the north. Saturday, cold and bright with wintry showers, mainly in the east. Further rain spreading southeast Sunday.
Updated: 1404 on Wed 30 Jan 2013
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