Thursday, January 31st 2013, 7:43 AM EST
There will be three cold waves arriving on Italy in the first half of February: Maps evening with the latest updates from all major computing centers worldwide confirm first the first, this weekend, with temperatures plummeting and severe weather especially in the center / north between Saturday 2 and Sunday 3, in the first days of the new month, when the snow may fall from abundant at low altitude and perhaps even in the plains to the north. But it is still early for details, but rather the trend in the medium and long term sees the confirmation of a second wave of cold next week, between Wednesday 6 and Friday, February 8, and then a third longer and more intense since Tuesday 12 onwards .
Of course everything about this third wave and the evolution from 9 to 10 February onwards, to date, is only "fantasy forecast" a very risky principle that needs to be confirmed in the coming days, but it also the risk of being denied. Instead, the first two are absolutely confirmed as baric system and weather trends, will be better defined only the details and namely:
#positioning the minimum of low pressure and its evolution
#amount of cold coming
#provide estimates of temperature and precipitation on the ground, with the forecast detail on the most affected areas and the snow level
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It 's still early to assess the merits of these details, but in the meantime we can say that in both cases on Italy will not come the big freeze, the bitter cold that comes directly from the pole or from the Russian steppes, because it will be maritime polar air coming from the North Atlantic and therefore will be less cold to the lower layers, with values on the ground more or less similar to those we have had in the last two waves of cold in January. At the same time, however, we can say that we have as strong storms with heavy rainfall throughout the country, and then snows on the mountains, even at low altitude, the air will be very cold at high altitude, and then pour quickly at low layers during precipitation. In principle, we consider a fairly apt anticipated trend and see for both raids, a snow level between the plain and 200 meters to the north, between 300 and 600 meters above sea level in the center, and between 600 and 800 meters to the south, with abundant snow accumulation of Alps and Apennines as happened in January, so that today the snow on the mountains this is already very thick and widespread, as can also be seen from the maps . Coming, then, rather than the true frost, it will be a normal winter cold but with very bad weather and lots and lots and lots of snow.
As for the cold, long-term attention to the evolution: the winter is long and the wave that promises from February 12 onwards could be the right one in terms of very low temperatures on the ground.
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