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ASTROPHYSICS V METEOROLOGY
Astrophysics v Meteorology: (Piers Corbyn v Met Office) Round Two: The Evolution of 70mb SSW as it peaked on the 26th January
Thursday, January 31st 2013, 3:05 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment


Posted in recent comments section by Ulric Lyons: You can see the evolution of 70mb here, it peaked on the 26th January

Click source and see the FULL animation at the Andreas Dörnbrack’s Website
Source Link: pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf
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REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 6:13 AM EST
Are we still on round 2?? You started Round two on the weekend of the snow then thaw, you remember, the one the MetO forecast correctly and Piers didn't? You must remember, it's the weekend of the snow on the M6 that Piers keeps tweeting the pic of despite not actually forecasting snow himself?

We must currently be on round three, the weekend of an R5+ event.

The middle of next week will be round 4.

But I can see why you want the middle of next week to be round two, as the 'normal' forecast look better for alignment...
REPORT
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 6:47 AM EST
Round one was "Astrophysics v Meteorology: Countdown to the "Coldest Thaw"!http://climaterealists.com/?id=11020 Afterwards CO2 concluded "It looks [as if it's] game set and match to the Met Office on this"

Round 2 was Piers's forecasts of blizzards and extreme cold to affect most of the UK this weekend, while the MetOffice forecast for the same period read "Conditions are expected to remain unsettled with spells of wet and windy weather interspersed by colder, clearer, showery conditions."

I think we need to accept that Piers Corbyn and WeatherAction were knocked-out by the MetOffice in Round 2.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 1st 2013, 7:52 AM EST
Ted

Your causing trouble AGAIN

The Round 1 was for the R5+ mid month and was a hit

The "coldest thaw" was a bit of fun and was a difficult call for Piers and The MetO, they won hands down

Round 2 is simply the second part of the R5+ event that started mid January, i.e a half cycle of the Sun (28/2)

I hope I cleared that up:)
REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 8:33 AM EST
Oh so the coldest thaw was another bit of polyfilla... hard to spot these things, must be very well sand papered to blend in so well.

So round 2 is now, the 29th to 1st extended to 3rd is R5+ isn't it?
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 1st 2013, 9:15 AM EST
Hi Vince

If the "Coldest Thaw" was a major issue, your right it would have been a Round 2 and the second part of the R5+ would have been Round 3 etc.

You also right that in between the high level R4+ WA ratings Piers trys to fill in the gaps, hence the term "pollyfilla"!

January was a very difficult month for Piers to call, having said that, your chums at the Met Office dont engage with the concept of Long Range forecast as they keep failing as they dont know how to make this call.

Take a look at what Piers is doing, and then ask yourself what it is your trying to do.

Without Piers showing that certain parts of a solar/lunar event can disrupt weather patterns in a predictable way we would be all asking ourselves if there is such a thing as CAGW. The good news is Piers can show an influence from Solar Forcing, the bad thing is, you guys look stupid when he does this as apart from insulting him you have no other answer to give.

I take the view the more anger you show the more you become desperate for answers on your side of the fence. I hope one day he upsets you so much you come to your senses:)

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Friday February 01, 2013 at 9:47 AM EST
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 9:31 AM EST
The thing is CO2, month after month Piers has shown us that although the Sun and Moon may be major players in our weather and climate, no one is able to reliably predict what will actually happen. Piers spoils the 'solar cause' by his repeated fabrications of 'successes' it ends up with people laughing at him and that's not really how it should be.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 1st 2013, 9:37 AM EST
Elim

I can tell how it should be

THE MET OFFICE SHOULD ASK PIERS TO COME IN FROM THE COLD AND JOIN THEM!
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 10:21 AM EST
The Met Office already collaborate with many scientists in the field e.g
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/solar-variability

Why would they want to work with someone who comes across as totally unprofessional and with no published work?
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 1st 2013, 1:25 PM EST
So the so called "scientists" that work with the Met Office know how to use the output of the Sun for changes in the Earths climate do they.

See what I mean your trying to have your cake and eat it on this

When Piers passes away in 10-20 years time the knowledge he has will be gone.

I put it to you that is of interest to all concerned that the Me Office "grow up" about Piers Corbyn's work and apply his knowledge.

There is not much doubt about his high level "R" periods being significant, why would they not use this knowledge. I can tell you why, it would make the Met Office views on "man made" climate change look silly. This has nothing to do with what you have had to say it's to do with Government policy
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 1:52 PM EST
They aren't 'so called' scientists CO2, they're real ones!
If Piers is worried about his knowledge dying with him he should write a paper or two, but if he's sticking with his secret Coca Cola recipe excuse then I guess we'll never know :)
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 1st 2013, 2:08 PM EST
Now your being irresponsible in respect of lost knowledge.

There is an opportunity for a grater understanding as to how the Sun changes our climate.

Piers WONT produce a paper as he needs to earn a living!

Its a chicken and egg situation.

One thing is certain and that is If the Met Office continue to bury their heads in the sane in regard to "man made" climate change and not let Piers take part in what they fail to master, we are all left with another form of religion, maybe that's what is behind this after all.

Can you just run this by me, I have posted details for TWO R5+ events from the WA January forecast issued at the end of December, and I have stated the higher the "R" rating the better the outcome, and unless you have shut yourself away in a cave in outer Mongolia you would have notice some changes to our climate in more or less the way Piers said it would change. And yet there is no praise or applause on this just "playground" remarks on "ah but he got other things wrong so this does not count".

What is it does Piers have to do to convince you, what is a "paper" going to add to the debate?
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 3:05 PM EST
Thousands of scientists around the world seem able to survive quite happily whilst publishing their work.

Blizzards, what blizzards?

Excellent and consistent forecast from the MO despite some inconsistent model guidance. Shows the value of having human forecasters and not relying purely on models.

Comment edited by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Friday February 01, 2013 at 3:13 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 4:10 PM EST
CO2, re the R ratings, there were three R4+ periods only one of which contained a correct forecast. R4 at the beginning of the month missed the mild weather, the R5 mid month was correct for cold and snow even if synoptically off, the latest R5 is so far failing to deliver the massive blizzards. 'Changes more or less the way Piers said' - only once this month I'm afraid.
Piers should look on a paper as an investment to his efforts of earning a living.
REPORT
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 4:31 PM EST
Co2: you say the metoffice should listen to Piers but what will they learn?

The metoffice are clear that it is nigh on impossible to do long range forecasts for the UK but did said way back in November that this winter was likely to below average temperatures. Their January forecasts, though shorter in range than Piers's, have been spot on.

Last month, Piers forecast a cold start followed by blizzards with multiple feet of snow followed by even colder temperatures - minus 20c in places! - followed by further blizzards which would be even bigger that the last ones. The result was a few inches of snow mid-month; hardly unusual for Britain in January. So again, after Piers got it so wrong and so often, why should the MetOffice listen to Piers? Piers has a vast amount more to learn from them and it's all free on their website http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 1st 2013, 5:04 PM EST
I get upset by

- The lack of science while berating science.

-The attacks on the MetO while using pollyfilla in his own forecasts.

- The threats of libel to any critics.

- The number of fonts and colours used on one page.

That will do for now...
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