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ASTROPHYSICS V METEOROLOGY MET OFFICE UK WINTER FORECAST 2012/13 UPDATED
Astrophysics v Meteorology: (Piers Corbyn v Met Office) Piers Corbyn Wins Round Two, and takes a 2-0 lead: Updated
Saturday, February 2nd 2013, 10:17 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
I recently had a couple of Tweets fromtwitter.com/ElimRosie and also twitter.com/Hudsonweather that Piers had lost both rounds, but in fact Piers has won them both, and this report from the Daily Mail shows an account of the recent overnight Snow in the UK to confirm Piers second R5+ Victory....well done to him for this forecast from the END OF DECEMBER issued MID DECEMBER.

Image Attachment

Click source to read FULL report and see snow cover photo in the UK......CLICK to see all recent Astrophysics v Meteorology report at this site

Also read: Arctic Balst Brings Back Snow by Nathan Rao, Daily Express
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk/
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REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 11:48 AM EST
Bless.
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 12:44 PM EST
You are funny CO2!
A dusting of snow on high ground in the north equals 'MASSIVE blizzards' with 'widespread air, road, rail and water travel disruption'??
As I said 2-0 to the Met Office
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 2nd 2013, 12:46 PM EST
Your even funnier then I am

You gave Round 1 to Piers, so how did he lose that?
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 12:53 PM EST
Oh sorry, I was thinking his major blunder with the snow followed by mild was Round 1 - no the snow mid month was forecast by both MetO and Piers so a point each. But really CO2 you're pushing your luck with this R5 period, total fail :)
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 2nd 2013, 1:32 PM EST
Nothing more then I expect from you in the way of a reply, you even put forward a view that the Met Office produce a "Long Range" forecast in your reply but they don't as well you know.

The Round 1 & 2 ARE winning results, yes I agree there was no disruption to the Transport network but I'm looking at snow fall.

Yes you right no major blizzard report, but again you also know how snow can fall, who is to say the snow was not as a blizzard in this area, even for a short time.

The photo is all I needed to see, give me a good enough reason to put this Daily Mail report down to a lack of evidence as to what Piers forecast?
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 1:38 PM EST
CO2 you're sadly demonstrating just how deluded you are in all this, sorry.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 2nd 2013, 1:57 PM EST
And you guys can say "man made" co2 controls the climate thats not just funny its a crime. How can 1 part of co2 in 62,000 do anything and then you go on to dismiss that "natural" co2, thats the 61,999 parts, do nothing, sadly you guys are deluded, and I'm even more sorry then you as you have all the funding, but thats OK.

Cake and Eat!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Saturday February 02, 2013 at 1:57 PM EST
REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 3:19 PM EST
I thought this period was forecast to be worse than the snow mid-month? Yet a dusting is enough?

This is why creditbility is shot to pieces.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 2nd 2013, 6:03 PM EST
Vince, your a bit behind in what you have to say.

The site started nearly 5 years ago, first as co2sceptics, and now for 4 years as it is now. I've seen many versions of you in the past, and no doubt will see a few more in the future. The key observation is that you get hung up on exact detail and try and justify what you have to say by selecting a word or group of words from the forecast. In that way your bound to be correct if what you select does not happen!

This period is top rated "R5+" so the chances are is the weather scenario will be very close, unlike a low level "R" period that can be off target. That does not mean the weather event will return back later as per the next high rated "R" period

Sounds messy I know but that's the way it works. I know there was no major snow blizzard, but that does not mean the snow fell in a blizzard type way.

If you look at the month as two parts cold and warm, the cold part started on the first "R5+" and then was interupted by two solar flares Piers had not forseen, the second cold period we are due to enter has started at the second "R5+" so regardless of your "playground" spat I maintain Piers is doing fine

cheers Vince for the input, your replacement must be due soon, I'm ready
REPORT
Posted by Vince Noir (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 6:32 PM EST
I know, imagine worrying about the details of a forecast.

Did it snow (a little, lots, any), blizzard or normal in the areas Piers said it would? For the vast area forecast it did not.

Not worried about the type of snow, just whether it did or not, in the areas forecast. This is an R5+ plus event so it should be pretty spot on as you say?
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 6:42 PM EST
CO2, the (slightly misquoted)Met Office 'BBQ Summer' can now be declared a success because some BBQ's were used that Summer. That's how it works - no?
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 2nd 2013, 7:27 PM EST
The Met Office threw their "long rang" hand in as the models did not work.

There looks to be only one that does, but it seems only to work well during high end solar/lunar periods

if you carry this forward and just use the high end "R4+" you should have a better understanding as to how the months weather develops.

Looking at February and applying what I have said tell me the general weather scanario.......
REPORT
Posted by ted rising (Twitter) on Feb 2nd 2013, 7:40 PM EST
Hi Co2, how would you rate Piers's forecast for January 2013? Points out of 10.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Feb 3rd 2013, 2:59 AM EST
I have stated to Elem that if you take out the two "R5+" periods and the month was not one of his best

if you use the "R4+" you get 67% for having the weather scanario correct

to drone on about the "pollyfilla" being important in the way you guys have done is daft, that's NOT how your meant to read the forecast
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Feb 3rd 2013, 4:02 AM EST
CO2, you seem to have forgotten that Piers completely missed the very mild start to January which was an R4 period. His mid month R5 went well, the recent one hasn't. So if we're just looking at R4+ then we're in the 30's % wise. People who've paid for the 'polyfilla' probably wouldn't want to ignore it, so it takes us down to the teens in % terms.
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