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30 failures written by John Dunn MD JD
Wednesday, February 13th 2013, 3:44 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)

Feynman on Scientific Method - Richard Feynman says if a theory fails the test of data/experiment, it must be discarded

(1) Warming not global – is shown in satellite data to be northern hemisphere only
(2) Warming (global mean and northern hemisphere) stopped in 1998
(3) GHC Models suggest atmosphere should warm 20% faster than surface but surface warming 33% faster during the time satellites and surface observations used. This suggests GHG theory wrong, and surface temperature contaminated
(4) Temperatures longer term have been modified to enhance warming trend and minimize cyclical appearance. Station dropout, missing data, change of local siting, urbanization, instrumentation contaminate the record – producing exaggerating warming.
(5) Forecast models have failed with temperature trends below even the assumed zero emission control
(6) Alarmists had predicted permanent El Nino but the last decade has featured 7 La Nina and just 3 El Nino years. This is related to the PDO and was predicted by those who look at natural factors
(7) Alarmists had predicted much lower frequency of the negative modes of the AO and NAO due to warming. The trend has been the opposite with a record negative AO/NAO in 2009/10
(8) Alarmists have predicted an increase in hurricane frequency and strength globally but the global activity had diminished after 2005 to a 30+ year low. The U.S. has gone seven consecutive years without a landfalling major hurricane, the longest stretch since the 1860s.
(9) Alarmists have predicted a significant increase in heat records but despite heat last two summers, the 1930s to 1950s still greatly dominated the heat records. Even in Texas at the center of the 2011 heat wave, the long term (since 1895) trends in both temperature and precipitation are flat.
(10) Alarmists indicated winter would become warmer and short. The last 15 years has seen a strong decline in winter temperatures in all regions

(11) Alarmists had indicated snow would become increasingly rare in middle latitudes especially in the big cities where warming would be greatest. All time snow records were set in virtually all the major cities and northern hemisphere snow coverage in winter has increased with 4 of the top 5 years in the last decade and 3 of the top 4. Also among the east coast high impact snowstorms tracked by NOAA (NESIS), 11 of the 46 have occurred since 2009.
(12) Alarmists had indicated a decline of Antarctic ice due to warming. The upward trends since 1979 continues.
(13) Alarmists had indicated Greenland and arctic ice melt would accelerate. The arctic ice tracks with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscilllation and the IARC shows the ice cover was similarly reduced in the 1950s when the Atlantic was last in a similar warm mode and the submarine Skate surfaced at the North Pole summer and winter.. In Greenland, the warmth of the 1930s and 1940s still dominates the records and longer term temperatures have declined.
(14) Alarmist claimed that drought western snowpack would diminish and forest fires would increase in summer. Snowpack and water equivalent was at or near record levels in recent winters from Alaska to the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies. Glaciers are advancing. Fires have dramatically declined.
(15) Mt. Kilimanjaro glacier was to disappear due to global warming. Temperatures show no warming in recent decades. The reduction in glacial ice was due to deforestation near the base and the state of the AMO. The glaciers have advanced again in recent years
(16) Polar bears were claimed to be threatened. Populations instead have increased to record levels and threaten the population.
(17) Sea level rise was to accelerate upward due to melting ice and warming. Sea levels actually slowed in the late 20th century and have declined or flattened the last few years. Manipulation of data (adjustment for land rises following the last glaciation) has been applied to hide this from the public.
(18) Australian drought was forecast to become permanent. Steps to protect against floods were defunded. Major flooding did major damage and rainfall has been abundant in recent years tied to the PDO and La Nina as predicted by honest scientists in Australia.
(19) Those who create the temperature records have been shown in analysis and emails to take steps to eliminate inconvenient temperature trends like the Medieval Warm Period, the 1940s warm blip and cooling since 1998. Steps have included removal of the urban heat island adjustment, artificial warming of global ocean temperatures near 1940. The latest such change was the Hadley inclusion of made up arctic data from NASA GISS (interpolation from land stations up to 1200km away)
(20) Ocean heat content was forecast to increase and was said to be the canary in the coal mine. The network of global buoys have shown no increase in heat content. The warming was to be strongest in the tropics where the atmospheric CO2 levels would be highest. No warming has been shown in the top 300meters back to the 1950s.
(21) Climate models have a hot spot in the mid to high troposphere of the tropical regions. Weather balloons and satellite show no warming in this region the last 30 years.
(22) Extremes of rainfall and drought were predicted to increase but except during periods of extreme ENSO (El Nino or La Nina), no such trends were seen
(23) Solar irradiance variance was said to be too weak a factor to influence climate but correlations of all components of solar activity with global temperatures are very high.
(24) Temperatures cycles in the United States and globally are strongly correlated with multidecadal cycles of ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific.
(25) Strong volcanism has been shown enhance or moderate global temperature changes depending on ENSO state for periods that last up to 3-5 years.
(26) Solar cycles have been shown in many local studies to have a significant effect on rainfall and river runoff
(27) Solar cycles have been shown to have influence on hurricane activity
(28) ENSO and PDO and AMO play key roles in extremes of weather –heat, cold, snow, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods and droughts.
(29) Office of the Inspector General report found that the EPA cut corners and short-circuited the required peer review process for its December 2009 endangerment finding, which is the foundation for EPA's plan to regulate greenhouse gases. EPA was dealt another blow to its scientific integrity when President Obama forced the agency to withdraw its plan to tighten the ozone standards because the economic and scientific analyses were so blatantly unsound.
More recently, an extraordinary D.C. Circuit Court ruling in December blocked EPA from moving forward with its signature air rule, the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule, because EPA failed to follow an adequate, open and transparent process.
And just last week, a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report confirmed that EPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS) program-which EPA acknowledges is the "scientific foundation for decisions"-is flawed. The report highlights "both long-standing and new challenges" EPA faces in implementing the IRIS program, echoing previous concerns from the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) that the agency is basing its decisions on shoddy scientific work.
According to GAO's survey of weather forecast offices, about 42 percent of the active stations in 2010 did not meet one or more of the siting standards. With regard to management requirements, GAO found that the weather forecast offices had generally but not always met the requirements to conduct annual station inspections and to update station records.
(29) Of 18,531 citations in the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report, 5,587 or 30% were non-peer-reviewed material, including activist tracts, press releases, and in one amazing case, “Version One” of a Draft.
Of the 44 chapters, 12 chapters involved a majority of non-peer-reviewed citations. Five chapters involved 71-85% non-peer-reviewed material. Overall, in 21 chapters 59% or less of the citations were peer-reviewed-material. Conversely, only eight chapters scored 90% or better for using peer-reviewed material.
Not one of hundreds or even thousands of in-the-know IPCC scientists sought to correct Pachauri’s misleading claim to legislators.
In important instances, IPCC lead authors chose non-peer-reviewed material, or papers of low credibility, favoring their argument, in the face of prolific peer-reviewed material to the contrary. Instances include alleged climate relevance to malaria, hurricanes, species extinction, and sea levels.
IPCC rules were that non-peer citations could indeed be used but should be flagged as such. But out of the 5,587 non-peer citations, a grand total of six, or 0.1% , were flagged as per IPCC rules. After the InterAcademy Council in 2010 demanded that the flagging be strengthened and enforced, the IPCC in May 2011 dispensed with the flagging rule altogether!
(30) Alaska was said to be warming with retreating glaciers. But that warming is tied intimately to the PDO and happens instantly with the flips from cold to warm and warm to cold. Two of the coldest and snowiest winters on records occurred since the PDO has flipped cold again (2007/08 and 2011/12). January 2012 was the coldest on record in many towns and cities and snowfall was running 160 inches above normal in parts of the south. Anchorage Alaska set an all time record for seasonal snow in 2011/12. In 2007/08, glaciers all advanced for the first time since the Little Ice Age.
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