Thursday, November 13th 2008, 2:06 AM EST
From Josh Willis, Ph.D. Jet Propulsion Laboratory (NASA)- Reply Email To Fred Singer.......
Correcting Ocean Cooling: NASA Changes Data to Fit the Models
The XBT data were not changed to fit the models. They were changed to agree other higher quality temperature observations from CTD casts, a select group of Argo floats with high quality temperature and pressure measurements, and to be consistent satellite-based observations of the changing height of the ocean surface. The improved agreement with climate models was as much of a surprise to us as anyone else.
In fact, the motivation to look for such problems in the XBT data did not come from comparisons with models, but rather from a comparison with CTD data by Gouretski and Koltermann in their 2007 GRL paper. Gouretski and Koltermann noted that the bias in the XBT data changed over time. After looking into the bias ourselves, we determined that the cause of the bias was a gradual drift in the fall rate of these instruments. By
treating the bias as a problem with the fall rate and comparing the XBT data with CTD, Argo and satellite altimeter observations, we were able to estimate the bias and remove it.
Once this data error was corrected, estimates of ocean warming over the past 40 years were much smoother, and the large "bump" in the 1970s and 80s more or less disappeared from the record. This was something of a relief because the "bump" in the heat content record was not only absent from climate models, there was no evidence for it in any other records and no good explanation could be found for its cause. The reason for that is
obvious now: because it wasn't real.
Original Email From Fred Singer....& Jennifer Marohasy
> This story has been making its rounds in the blogosphere.
> I am copying Josh on this so he can comment. That's only fair, you'll agree.
> I am hoping he will make available his temp vs
> depth data soon - at least for the No Atlantic.
> Best to all
> S. Fred Singer, PhD, President
> Science & Environmental Policy Project
> >Ocean Cooling: NASA Changes Data to Fit the
> >Models - NASA scientist, Josh Willis, was so
> >concerned that his data, showing ocean cooling,
> >did not fit the official consensus on climate
> >change that he searched for a solution.
> >Eventually he â€œapplied a correctionâ€Â so the
> >historical ocean temperature record showed a
> >relatively steady increase in line with the climate models.
> >Perhaps Dr Willis really did get it wrong
> >between 2003 and 2005 when his data showed a
> >large decrease in the heat content of the ocean.
> >But after reading his justification for the
> >correction, I am not convinced. Indeed and I am
> >left wondering how to ever trust the official
> >temperature record again. (Jennifer Marohasy)