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"Climate change is primarily driven by nature. - By Navy Physicist"
Sunday, February 8th 2009, 6:10 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
By Retired U.S. Navy Physicist and Engineer James A. Marusek

I wrote the following article and I would like to have it get a little more exposure than just a letter to the editor in the local newspaper. The problem with the global warming theory is that it can cloud one's vision from a real threat, global cooling. And in so doing can cause great harm to this country. Perhaps you might consider sending it out.

Legacy for Our Children

There is a lot of talk these days about the legacy we will leave our children and our grandchildren. When I stare into the immediate future, I see a frightening legacy caked in darkness and famine. Instead of intelligently preparing, we find ourselves whittling away this precious time chasing fraudulent theories. We have a decade to prepare, but have a misguided sense of direction and urgency.

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Climate change is primarily driven by nature. It has been true in the days of my father and his father and all those that came before us. Because of science, not junk science, we have slowly uncovered some of the fundamental mysteries of nature. Our Milky Way galaxy is awash with cosmic rays. These are high speed charged particles that originate from exploding stars. Because they are charged, their travel is strongly influenced by magnetic fields. Our sun produces a magnetic field that extends to the edges of our solar system.

This field deflects many of the cosmic rays away from Earth. But when the sun goes quiet (minimal sunspots), this field collapses inward allowing cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. As a result, far greater numbers collide with Earth and penetrate down into the lower atmosphere where they ionize small particles of moisture (humidity) forming them into water droplets that become clouds. Low level clouds reflect sunlight back into space. An increase in Earth's cloud cover produce a global drop in temperature. These periods of quiet sun are referred to as a Grand Minima. The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) and the Dalton Minimum (1790-1830) are examples.

During a Grand Minima the Earth begins to slowly cool. The start of the planting season is delayed and in the fall early frost limits the harvest. Earth’s abundant bounty is put on hold and starvation takes its ghastly grip. Historian, John D. Post, referred to the last Grand Minima, the Dalton Minimum, as the “last great subsistence crisis in the Western world”. With the cold came massive crop failures, food riots, famine and disease.

Several scientists including David Hathaway (NASA), William Livingston & Matthew Penn (National Solar Observatory), and Khabibullo Abdusamatov (Russian Academy of Science) have forecasted that the sun may enter a Grand Minima a decade from now in Solar Cycle 25.

A few scientists including David C. Archibald (Australia) and M. A. Clilverd (Britain) have warned this might even begin in Solar Cycle 24. We are at the transition into Solar Cycle 24 and this cycle has already shown itself to be unusually quiet. The number of spotless days (days without sunspots) during this solar minimum appears to be tracking 3 times the typical number observed during the last century (Solar Cycles 16-23).

There are some that urge North America follow Europe’s lead. On January 13, 2009, the European Parliament adopted a regulation dramatically restricting the number of pesticides allowed. This move is based on the precautionary principle and on junk science. According to Dr. Colin Ruscoe, chairman of the British Crop Production Council, "If farmers are forced to stop using certain products, crop yields would halve. There would be such huge losses in the yields of potatoes, carrots, peas and parsnips that it would become uneconomical to farm them." Is this the kind of lead we should be following?

Europe is also leading in another area - in its opposition to genetically modified (GM) crops. In Europe, environmentalist have driven fear into the hearts of their citizens by labeling GM food as “Frankenfood”. In our country, we have been using GM crops for almost two decades without any ill effects. GM crops hold the promise of helping us survive the next Grand Minima by offering crops that can grow under extreme weather conditions. North America is currently a leader in this technology. Should we follow Europe’s lead and ban GM crops? And in ten years from now when the next solar cycle begins, if the sun goes quiet, who will comfort the starving children who cry out in the middle of the night for a small piece of bread? These will be our children.

So what legacy will we leave behind?
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Posted by ecoanne (forum) on Feb 9th 2009, 7:56 AM EST
Firstly, I couldn't agree more. In 1980 as a student at Imperial College, London I learned that we are in an interglacial period and could expect the climate to cool. At the same time we learned of the probable results of the greenhouse effect. We debated and concluded that population control of both humans and bovines would be more effective than tinkering with carbon dioxide as methane causes far more damage.
I take the stance that climate change is the norm. No natural system is ever static and rarely 100% predictable. Even so it is had to believe that man's greed and lack of accountability can't be making things worse. With so many committees being formed and knee jerk reactions, the climate,Mother Nature or God whatever you call it or believe in will have to cope without our dubious 'help'. We need to take individual action where we can and adapt to the climate because it won't adapt to us!

http://TheEnergyLadyUK.com/blog
http://FelineHealthBlog.com
Posted by Docrichard (forum) on Feb 10th 2009, 7:50 AM EST
The cosmic radiation/cloud hypothesis is treated <a href="http://http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11651/">here </a>

An excerpt: "...cloud physicists say it has yet to be shown that such clumping occurs. And even if it does, it seems far-fetched to expect any great effect on the amount of clouds in the atmosphere. Most of the atmosphere, even relatively clean marine air, has plenty of cloud condensation nuclei already.

A series of attempts by Svensmark to show an effect have come unstuck. Initially, Svensmark claimed there was a correlation between cosmic ray intensity and satellite measurements of total cloud cover since the 1980s - yet a correlation does not prove cause and effect. It could equally well reflect changes in solar irradiance, which inversely correlate with cosmic ray intensity.

Furthermore, this apparent correlation depended on adjustments to the data, and it does not hold up when more recent cloud measurements from 1996 onwards are included".
Posted by GregoryFegel (forum) on Feb 17th 2009, 7:45 PM EST
The historic record of the climate changes of the Ice Age cycle have been amply demonstrated by a variety of correlative evidence from ice cores, ocean sediments, the geologic record, and paleobiology. The Ice Age cycle has been shown to follow the cyclic changes in solar exposure caused by the Milankovitch astronomical cycles. Assuming that the Ice Age cycle continues to proceed on its previous and regular schedule, the current warm period or glacial minimum which the earth has enjoyed for approximately the past 11,500 years is due to end at any time.

It has been suggested that Anthropogenic Global Warming, variations in solar output, or volcanic activity might act to delay the onset of the next Ice Age. However, no one has proved that anything will delay or prevent the onset of the next Ice Age. I believe that in the absence of proof that anything will postpone the return of the Ice Age, humankind would be wise to expect it and plan for it.

Today the world's human population is already experiencing food shortages, water shortages, and crises of polluted environments. With or without radical climate change, overpopulation is likely to bring profound suffering to the world's nations in the centuries ahead. Dramatic climate change -- perhaps global cooling worse than global warming -- would act to intensify the stresses engendered by overpopulation.

The theory of Anthropogenic Global Warming caused by CO2 emissions is not proven, and is based on an unrealistically narrow selection of evidence. If AGW were real, the consequences of an increase of several degrees C of global temperature for humankind would probably be preferable to what will happen when Ice Age conditions begin their return to the Northern Hemisphere. Between global warming and global cooling, global cooling is the greater threat and also the more likely threat.

It is possible that the return of Ice Age conditions to the Northern Hemisphere might not occur until many hundreds of years from now. However, it is equally possible that the return of Ice Age conditions could occur within our lifetimes, and it has been shown that in the past dramatic, long-lasting changes in temperature have sometimes occurred within just a few years. It would be prudent for humankind to be prepared for that possibility.

-- Gregory Fegel
Posted by Docrichard (forum) on Feb 20th 2009, 7:43 AM EST
Hi Gregory
Three things: first, nothing is ever "proven" in science, only "not-yet-disproven", so an insistence on "proof" before any action is an insistence that no action be taken. This is why the Precautionary Principle has been adopted.

Second, it would be great if a (moderate) Ice Age came along to counterbalance AGW, but as you say, that may not occur for many hundreds of years. However, all the observed evidence of ice indicates that it is in retreat.

Third, in being skeptical of AGW theory, are you actually rejecting the physics? Rejecting the science of the infra-red transmission properties of CO2 and the rest of the GHGs?

Thanks
Posted by GregoryFegel (forum) on Feb 21st 2009, 2:58 PM EST
Docrichard:
The 'not yet disproven' status of the theory of CO2-caused AGW does not, of course, mean that it is 'proven'. There are myriad 'not yet disproven' theories that do not deserve to be made the basis of public policy, and CO2-caused AGW is one of them.

Those who want the nations of the earth to exercise the 'Precautionary Principle' by implementing drastic reductions of anthropogenic CO2 emissions are demanding an economic revolution for which world civilization is not currently prepared, and which is likely to cause massive suffering throughout the world. My own application of the 'Precautionary Principle' would be to proceed with caution, and not rashly implement restrictions and changes which will cause great harm in order to mitigate CO2-caused AGW, which is a very questionable and disputed theory.

One of many 'red flags' which surround the highly-politicized CO2-caused AGW movement is the fact that while pressuring the developing nations to adopt economy-busting 'carbon controls', the hypocrite US government is simultaneously committing massive CO2-producing aggression in the Middle East for oil, greatly expanding its military, and developing a host of new 'carbon-intensive' weaponry programs.

I am a dedicated opponent of all forms of environmental pollution. I support the imposition of restrictions on industry, commerce, and the citizenry that seek to maintain the common air and water in a pristine condition, for the benefit of all. I have very little tolerance for air pollution and air polluters.

CO2 is a naturally-occurring gas which is the exhaled by-product of animal metabolism. Only a miniscule fraction of our atmosphere and the air we breathe consists of CO2. Only a small portion of atmospheric CO2 is anthropogenically produced. Plants cannot live without Co2, and they thrive on increased CO2. Ice core studies show that global temperature increases precede CO2 increases, which contradicts the theory of CO2-caused AGW.

At previous times in earth history, CO2 levels have been as high or higher than they are today, and the only demonstrated correlation of CO2 levels with climate change is that global temperatures, followed by CO2 levels, normally peak near the end of each Interglacial, just prior to the cyclic return of Ice Age conditions. According to the geologic record, that is where we stand today.

I disagree with your assertion that global ice is in retreat. See:

http://www.iceagenow.com/We_overlooked_193000_square_miles_of_ice.htm

http://www.iceagenow.com/Growing_Glaciers.htm

The miniscule fraction of CO2 (380 ppm) in the earth's atmosphere is unlikely to function as a major green house gas; water vapour is well known to be by far the most active and powerful GHG.

Speculation that the trace gas CO2 can play a massive role as a GHG has by no means been verified, and to implement a wide assortment of high-risk, economy-transforming international policies based on the speculative theory of CO2-caused AGW is not an application of the 'Precautionary Principle', but of the 'Presumptive Principle', and of a 'Political Principle'.

-- Gregory Fegel
Posted by Docrichard (forum) on Feb 26th 2009, 2:32 PM EST
Gregory, thanks for your response, but my question was, do you accept the physics of CO2 as regards its propertiies with regard to infra red?
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