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Met Office Winter Forecast - Comments by Piers Corbyn
Thursday, July 23rd 2009, 8:37 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Met Office winter 'forecast' 2009-10 attacked as 'reckless misleading nonsense without scientific basis or skill'. "It should be ignored absolutely. The opposite to whatever the Met Office says in long range has been what happened for the last three years!"

"Met Office Early Winter Forecast...Early indications are that winter temperatures are likely to be near or above average over much of Europe including the UK. For the UK, Winter 2009/10 is likely to be milder *(and wetter) than last year ".(released 23 July)

Piers Corbyn, astrophysicist of WeatherAction.com said today, 23 July:

"The Met Office long range forecast attempts at seasonal and world developments totally failed• to predict ANY of the 5 notable weather developments since 2007. They predicted the opposite to what occurred for the wet summers 2007, 2008, and 2009, the icy snowy winter 08/9, and world temperature decline over recent years. On the other hand our WeatherAction Solar Weather Technique predicted all these major situations correctly and did it ahead of the Met Office prognoses.

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Their score of zero out of five is lamentable. It could not be worse. They should stop issuing these reckless 'forecasts' which only serve to mislead the public, commerce and emergency authorities and cause unnecessary misery danger and possible death.

Their forecast for a mild winter in 08/09 disarmed the emergency services and Councils and led directly to the UK running out of road salt, transport chaos and extra road accidents when the snow deluges predicted by us at WeatherAction hit Britain and Ireland. The Met Office stupidity cost the economy billions of pounds.

"The recent heavy rains and weather prospects spell failure for the Met Office forecast of a 'barbecue summer' which we advised our own forecast users would fail. For how much longer will government, 'opposition' and much of commerce continue to follow failed methodology which is without scientific basis?

"The Met Office long range forecasts will continue to fail because they are founded on the politically motivated false theory of man-made global warming and related computer models. The fact is the world has been cooling for at least 7 years while CO2 has been rapidly rising. Our proven science explains why and shows the world cooling will generally continue at least to 2030 and the world will remain generally cooler than recently for a hundred years (see below**)

"The Met Office 'forecast' (issued 23 July) for winter 2009-10 to be probably milder and wetter than average is nonsense and entirely what one would expect them to say. Their religious belief in non-existent man-made Global Warming means they could not say anything different. Their forecast should be ignored absolutely. Statistically speaking the opposite to what they say has a success score of 5/5.

"In the immediate future I suggest the major clothing chains should consider sue-ing the Met Office for misleading advise 3 years running which is now leaving stacks of 'barbecue summer' wear falling onto the streets. And anyone who had an accident in winter because road-salt ran out should sue the Met Office and the local Council for negligence.

"Politicians of all the major parties should be called to account for their promotion of projects spending and taxation for the green bubble of false value which is the ideological basis for these stupid and damaging forecasts. Gordon Brown's welcome moves to more accountability of public life are being undermined by the green fools who mis-advise him on environmental matters and he should get rid of them. The dead hand of the promoters of climate hysteria is causing needless economic and personal suffering and unless stopped it will end in tears and leave us all worse off".

NOTES & LINKS:

19th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 46
Torrential rain, floods thunder & tornadoes 15 -18 July confirm WeatherAction long range Red Weather Warning and dash MetOffice 'barbecue summer' hopes. Corresponding Typhoon & Tropical storm forecasts also confirmed - Hong Kong suffering hit (19th July).

19th June 2009 WeatherAction News No 36
"World cooling has set in and it will stay colder for at least 100 years predicts scientist in forecast breakthrough

8th July 2009 WeatherAction News No 45
Reality will not go away! World leaders must put testable science before 'Climate Change' ideology and abandon the 'Green Bubble'

Thank you
Source Link: weatheraction.com
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Comments

Have Your Say

Posted by nickdart (forum) on Jul 23rd 2009, 9:21 AM EDT
I entirely agree with Piers. This long range weather "guess" is misguided and totally reckless, again! Everything Piers has said here is true. For example, my wife recently hit the shops for the sales and found stacks of "barbecue" clothes going for up to 70% off! This government must wake up to the inaccurate and prejudiced agenda our MET office and associated green lobby are dishing out and finally lay to rest the misguided hypothesis of so called AGW. I am looking out my window now at heavy rain as I type this! What with the expenses scam and global warming scam, I cannot and will not be able to vote for anyone in the next election until this is resolved along with other issues. I for one have lost all confidence in our politics and cannot trust any of them and I know I am not alone here.

Roll on October Piers when you make your announcements and I hope the UKIP and other intelligent and influential groups take note so that us (the voters) can stop this with some assistance before it’s too late, and we all pay so dearly in massive hikes in energy bills, car tax bills, and unfound ideals about having massive windmills everywhere costing us millions and making next to no difference to the national grid in a vain attempt to pay for nuclear power (the real reason) and the credit crunch.
Posted by Splatz (forum) on Jul 23rd 2009, 10:11 AM EDT
I subscribe to the "three stikes and you're out" line of thinking. The fact that the Met office long range summer predictions have been wrong 3 times, surely now is the time to call them out on this. Someone in the met office is accountable for this and should be challenged face to face and not just in these forums. This is clearly a newsworthy piece and yet no one is picking this up in the mainstream news. The BBC have some very hard hitting political news heavyweights like Paxman who would soon expose the folly of these predictions.

So is it time for Piers to move to the next level of public exposure and force someone to take this story up? or should it go to Nicky Campbell' Watchdog.
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jul 23rd 2009, 11:25 AM EDT
I regret to say the mindset of most people is that NOBODY can predict what the weather can do beyond a few days, so when the Met Office get it wrong it just confirms to them that it is an impossibility. It is very difficult to persuade people to think in any other way regarding the long range weather predictions. What Piers needs to do is produce a paper FIRST and then build on this, to try and do it the other way around is not credible and neither the Met. Office or the public will take him seriously. Now the twist, the body who accept scientific papers will throw it out! So will Piers succeed? Very unlikely!
Posted by Splatz (forum) on Jul 24th 2009, 6:40 AM EDT
But my point is the Met Office ARE publishing long range forecasts and the BBC continually report these forecasts when they come out. What the BBC does not do is go back to the Met Office each time these forecasts is proved wrong especially as their last three summer forecasts have proved so wrong.
Posted by NeilHamp (forum) on Jul 24th 2009, 3:02 PM EDT
This is just my record of Met Office predictions

Global Temperatures 2007

“2007 is likely to be the warmest ever year on record going back to 1850, beating the current record set in 1998.”
2007 was cooler than 1998. It also turned out cooler than 2002,2003,2004,2005 and 2006

Summer of 2008

“The coming summer is expected to be a ‘typical British summer’. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near average for the three months of summer.”
The summer of 2008 was one of the wettest on record across the UK.

Winter 2008/09

Winter mean temperatures are likely to be above normal.
The UK had its coldest winter for 13 years

Summer 2009

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer. After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

We did see some hot weather in Wimbledon fortnight, but July certainly could NOT be described as barbecue weather

Global Temperatures 2009

2009 will be the fifth warmest year since records began

The forecast for 2009 to 2019

The UK Met Office predict at least half of the years after 2009 will exceed the warmest year currently on record.

This means five of the next ten years must exceed 1998 which hadcru recorded as 0.526
Posted by Stephen Wilde (forum) on Oct 27th 2009, 2:59 PM EDT
I think Piers needs to decide if he is a weather forecaster or a climatologist.

Solar changes tend to be long and slow over decades or centuries so I have difficulty seeing how solar effects can dictate weather on day to day or week to week timescales.

It may be that Piers relies on very short term solar variability such as we see from individual sunspots or sunspot groups and individual solar flares but I see great problems predicting any specific weather events from such phenomena.

I look forward to the coming release of details regarding Piers's methods.
Posted by Stephen Wilde (forum) on Oct 27th 2009, 3:01 PM EDT
I think Piers needs to decide if he is a weather forecaster or a climatologist.

Solar changes tend to be long and slow over decades or centuries so I have difficulty seeing how solar effects can dictate weather on day to day or week to week timescales.

It may be that Piers relies on very short term solar variability such as we see from individual sunspots or sunspot groups and individual solar flares but I see great problems predicting any specific weather events from such phenomena.

I look forward to the coming release of details regarding Piers's methods.
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