A new study in the journal Science has just shown that all of the climate modeling results of the past are erroneous. The IPCC's modeling cronies have just been told that the figures used for greenhouse gas forcings are incorrect, meaning none of the model results from prior IPCC reports can be considered valid. What has caused climate scientists' assumptions to go awry? Short lived aerosol particles in the atmosphere changing how greenhouse gases react in previously unsuspected ways. The result is another devastating blow to the climate catastrophists' computer generated apocalyptic fantasies.
In a stunning article entitled “
Improved Attribution of Climate Forcing to Emissions,” a group of researchers from NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University in New York, led by Drew T. Shindell, have called into question the values used to calculate the “forcing” due to various greenhouse gases. “We calculated atmospheric composition changes, historical radiative forcing, and forcing per unit of emission due to aerosol and tropospheric ozone precursor emissions in a coupled composition-climate model,” states the paper's abstract. “We found that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions. In particular, methane emissions have a larger impact than that used in current carbon-trading schemes or in the Kyoto Protocol.”
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According to the study, emissions of NOx, CO, and methane have substantial impacts on aerosols by altering the abundance of oxidants, especially hydroxyl, which convert SO2 into sulfate. Global abundance of hydroxyl and sulfate changes by 18% and 13% for increased NOx by significant amounts. By –13% and –9% for CO, and by –26% and –11% for methane. Coupling in the other direction is very weak because reactions of gases with aerosols only have a small effect on the amounts of radiatively active ozone and methane. For example, SO2 emissions enhance the removal of NOx through reactions on particulate surfaces, causing ozone to decrease, but the radiant forcing is only –0.004 W/m2. Increased SO2 leads to substantially reduced nitrate aerosol, however, owing to greater ammonium sulfate formation at the expense of ammonium nitrate.
Figure 1. Radiative forcing from 1750 to 2000. Numerical values within the figure give the net forcing (instantaneous at the tropopause). Uncertainties in the abundance-based values are 0.16 for CO2, 0.05 for methane, +0.15 to –0.10 for ozone, 0.20 for sulfate, 0.10 for nitrate, and 0.05 for stratospheric water. For emissions-based values, we estimate uncertainties by adding the forcing uncertainties for each component in quadrature, yielding 0.14 for methane, 0.04 for CO+VOCs, 0.09 for NOx, 0.23 for sulfate, and 0.10 for ammonia. AIE are not included. All forcing values are from this work except those from CO2 and stratospheric water, which are based on the IPCC AR4. From Shindall et al., Science 2009.
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If,as I contend, the oceans control the air temperatures and the air cannot heat the oceans then none of those forcing agents in either category can affect the global temperature equilibrium.
All that will occur is a miniscule change in the speed of the hydrological cycle to ensure that the sea surface/surface air temperature equilibrium is maintained.
On that basis they are just arguing along the lines of the oft quoted pointless debate as to how many angels would fit on the head of a pin.