Long-term global cooling began in 2002, according to a just-released study in the
Journal of Cosmology, a peer-reviewed publication produced at Harvard-Smithsonian’s Center for Astrophysics. Man-made global warming was real and dangerous, the study finds, but the danger has passed.
The study, authored by Qing-Bin Lu, a rising star at the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Waterloo in Canada, explains why climate models have been so spectacularly wrong in trying to tie the global warming of the last half of the 20th century to CO2 — the climate modelers fingered the wrong culprit when they targeted CO2. The true culprits, Dr. Lu explains, were CFCs, the now banned substances that until the 1990s had been a refrigerant and propellant to products as diverse as air conditioners and hair spray cans.
Fortunately for the globe, environmentalists had CFCs banned because of their role in depleting the ozone layer, not realizing that the ban was simultaneously solving the global warming threat.
According to Dr. Lu, the phase-out of CFCs will be reversing the global warming effect by ushering in a 50 to 70-year period of global cooling.
Financial Post
LawrenceSolomon@nextcity.com
Lawrence Solomon is executive director of Energy Probe and the author of The Deniers.
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They obviously cannot accept that the stratospheric cooling and now warming might be connected with high solar activity and now low solar activity.
So to preserve their reputation they ignore the solar link and switch to CFCs which coincidentally started to decline in the 90s as a result of the Montreal Protocol but which might never have been responsible significantly for the ozone depletion or stratospheric cooling in the first place.
It is not widely appreciated that a positive polar oscillation such as we had for much of the time in the late 20th century is implicated in both stratospheric cooling and ozone depletion so we don't really need CFCs or CO2 to explain anything.
It seems likely to me that an active sun induces a positive polar oscillation and a less active sun induces a negative polar oscillation such as we now have now that the sun is less active.
It is becoming more likely as time passes that neither CFCs nor CO2 ever had the effects attributed to them. Although the basic science was correct in both cases it may well be that the effects were dwarfed into insignificance by natural processes.