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Piers said:

"mighty deluges with hail and thunderfloods and high tornado risk where the cooler air sweeps into the hot & humid stuff"


A way to go yet.

Plus the area to be affected is well away from the hot area. It's just a normal depression passing to the north west

What Piers really needs for a successful prediction is the trailing cold front going through England and Wales tonight and sparking severe storms ahead of it.

That seems unlikely at the moment because convection over England looks like being inhibited by high pressure to the south west. That does not preclude some thundery weather in England but anything like the above quote doesn't really seem to be on the cards just yet.

Still, here's hoping.

Comment edited by Stephen Wilde (forum) on Saturday July 10, 2010 at 11:52 AM EDT

Hi Steve

I agree it's not quite word for word, but as I said at the start of this blog, the event may not be as he called it, as it was last time. Last time he called a "North Sea Storm Surge" and in fact it turned out to be the "Cumbria Flood", this time I'm just keeping it simple and saying its a Solar Climate Change event. Your correct to question what he says and what happens, the deal as far as I am concerned is the window for a Solar Climate Change in the UK, and this is no normal front just passing through, it's part of a world weather event.

There's not a lot of utility in a prediction of a North Sea Flood that 'results' in floods in Cumbria from an entirely different synoptic setup.

Would you pay for that ?

What is a 'world weather event'?

What is unusual about the weakening cold front trailing across England tonight ?

Steve your missing the point on this, Piers sets the time frame for a major weather event that is the result of Solar changes that alter the Earths weather patterns. There is a "speed up" of either cool air disturbing warm air or vice versa. The nett effect is seen in heavy downpours, storms and even Earthquakes and Volcanic activity. If you look at the prediction from last year's Cumbria flood and take on board what was said by Piers about a major event taking place (North Sea Storm Surge) I have no doubt what we had was the result of Solar Climate Change. What seems to be the sticking point is that because Piers said one thing and another situation happend you raise doubt that the Cumbria flood was not part of the Solar Climate Change and yet there WAS a major event within the said time frame. I can only say I'm sold on this and you are not, on this latest event we have the time frame and maybe a major weather situation on Sunday, if there is a major event your still be in doubt, we could do this for 10 years and each time your have doubt, see the flaw in what Piers says but not the time frame. I think once you grasp that as the key then you will not be so critical about his personal prediction, and that is that part that fails some of the time not the time frame

Thanks for comments guys

but - Stephen - THE FACTS (and by the way What was your forecast?)

The map above is turning orange WHEN we said it would from 6 weeks ahead and the Met Office only issued warnings half a day ahead. And its not just a regular random storm or series of storms. it's firstly WHEN we said and secondly WHAT we said - extensive and torrential. (and thunder + hail? probably - wait; high tornado RISK? yes but we don't know if there will be tornadoes for sure)

There was eg on 9th/10th torrential rain and strong winds in Ireland, N Ireland, Scotland & N England - eg Northumbria (Mr Moat was in torrential rain for an hour it said on TV) as we predicted and the major deluges and thunderstorms will come to South on 11/12th all in the time window.
We don't expect all detail to be identical to forecast but the forecast is already confirmed as well as the preceding hot weather in Southeast as in our long range forecast, and thundery deluges in France also mentioned on TV by BBC forecasters and as in our Euro forecast maps available:-
http://www.weatheraction.com/member.asp

Reports of what was/is going on re serious deluges etc:
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/sport/8265652.St_Andrew___s_hopes_fade_as_Storm_hit_by_weather/
http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=33246

There are also simultaneous very extreme events around the world in this top slap 10-12th- please see foot of this note.

Stephen, You divert into talk about Cumbria last year and misrepresent what we said then.
We predicted a North sea storm surge (85%) with a 50/50 chance of some coastal floods. (You say the forecast was for coastal floods primarily - not so).
The fact is THERE WAS force 11 N wind off the Danish etc coasts and raised sea levels THAT is a N sea surge AS PREDICTED.
There was not a costal UK flood because the surge didn't go on long enough. If there had been a flood you might say we were wrong because we had only said it was 50/50. Of course rather than admit we were right then you and various commentators say we were wrong because something else happened ie Cumbria which was very big and we hadn't forecast it.
The right synoptic situation did take place for the North Sea surge but a new situation followed quickly - giving the Cumbria 'bonus' or distraction. If Cumbria hadn't happened the main weather news then would undoubtedly have been the force 11 N winds in the east of the North Sea.

We always warn that these TOP Solar Lunar Action periods will produce many events which we don't (yet) know about in advance as well as the ones we do (85%) know about.

The 10th -12th has gone excellently so far - as in these two twitter notes:-

4 hits already in TOP solar "SLAP" ~10-12Jul Huge floods/storms USA/Canada Grt Lakes + Melbourne + S China + N&Mid Britain More to come.
The USA/Canada + the Brit/Ire hits were explicitly predicted to the day weeks ahead by SLAT method

Events -
QUEBEC smashed by thunderstorms -
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/storm_watch_stories3&stormfile=quebec_thunderstorms_10_07_2010
AUSTRALIA Melbourne and Perth Cold + wind + storm
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/melbournes-chilly-weather-set-to-turn-wild-20100709-1030y.html
CHINA DEADLY FLOODS (prob 9th)
http://chinadigitaltimes.net/china/floods/
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-09/china-s-torrential-rain-floods-kill-at-least-27-xinhua-says.html

Thanks, Piers

Looks like the "New Moon" has put a halt to the weather stories for Sunday in the UK, however I just noticed on "The Weather Channel" that the Southeast could be hit with several inches of rain on Monday, will update once I see this report on the Met Office site.

There is now a prospect of heavy thundery rain for the southeast UK Sunday night into Monday which could salvage Piers's UK prediction a bit. Fingers crossed.

My reservations arise from the extremely wide scale, type, timing and geographical distribution of events used to support earlier predictions after the event.

Effectively those variable parameters reduce the practical utility of the predictions to near zero. Of course it may be possible to improve accuracy over time but will it ever be enough to make the predictions valuable ?

As things stand at present the more detail Piers gives the less likely is the prediction to be accurate.

It's important to appreciate the nature of the forecasts being made. They don't so much give the weather for the time and place of your choosing, as tell you the types and numbers of extreme events that will happen, and roughly where and when.

The errors of a hundred miles or a day might seem big compared to those of the Met Office, until you consider how much more in advance these predictions are made. From that far ahead, the Met Office can say nothing. The exciting prospect is that if their methods were combined the Met Office could make forecasts for ten days ahead as accurately as they currently can for twelve hours. Apparently.

It will always be easy to say, "This is just a normal..." and then describe an ordinary weather pattern. At any time, you can always suggest that what has happened over the last few hours or days would have happened anyway. But that will leave you without an explanation for how WeatherAction can know so far in advance, that a particular event is likely.

I concede that they don't have a 100% success rate. I also concede that I don't have the data to confirm or deny their 85%ish success rate. But last winter, they turned me into a snow prophet. Thanks to them I knew when it would snow how deep it would be, when it would leave, when it would return and when the UK would run out of snow grit. They'd already declared for months that it would be a long, very cold winter, and that the mild winter forecast of the Met Office could be confidently disregarded.

The forecast limit of a few days applies to the prediction of weather caused by other weather. But if there is a known driver of climate whose effect is predictable over a longer time-scale, that limit need not apply. A compound pendulum can be chaotic and unpredictable. Knowing about Newtonian mechanics and having a meaty computer can help you predict a certain amount of motion, with a certain reliability, but if you know when the pendulum will receive an energy kick, then you can make predictions much further ahead.

Don't think that WeatherAction are arguing, "This weather is unusual, therefore our explanation must apply." I realise that is the type of argument you may have come to expect from some quarters.

Instead, they're making falsifiable predictions and allowing them to be tested. There are worse ways to do science.

Thanks for your objective look Thomas.

Now we can look in even more detail at what has happened in time and region.....

This TOP SLAP (Solar Lunar Action Period) around 10-12th July was excellently confirmed in general and in specific predicted detail.

The period was marked by the appearance of many extra extreme and very extreme weather events around the world - see link.

BOTH the Specific detailed event predictions were well confirmed in timing & region -

=> N USA / Canada / Great Lakes - see link below
=> Britain/Ireland & NW Europe - sub-events include torrential rain, floods major thunderstorms which induced FIREs (Sweden) and Tornadoes (NW Germany & Sweden) - see link.

Go to http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No26.pdf

Thanks Piers

More links and news on Extreme events around Top SLAP 10-12 July.

More pics and News (July 14) from Central & South China on the "Worst Flood" and associated land slips around 10-12 July: http://big5.cri.cn/gate/big5/english.cri.cn/6909/2010/07/14/1781s582965.htm


UK daily local highest rainfalls as cold front advanced West to East 10, 11 & 12 July

10 July Killowen N Ire 36mm http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_8808000/8808589.stm

11 July Lusa Highlands Scotland 39mm http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/new

12 July Manston Kent 28mm http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/uk_reviews/newsid_8814000/8814281.stm

Thomas Poole said:

"But that will leave you without an explanation for how WeatherAction can know so far in advance, that a particular event is likely."

Well one first needs evidence that WeatherAction did 'know' in any useful sense.

It's pretty easy to 'know' what the general nature of UK weather is during the summer months. Also the sort of extreme events that occur somewhere around the world virtually every day. Mostly we in the UK get a broad mixture of sun rain wind and fluctuating temperatures so anyone can prepare a description based on that 'knowledge'and then retrofit it to what actually happens. With a bit of juggling of word definitions as to what the particular 'event' is,varying the scale of the events involved, shifting the timings, widening the geography and switching adroitly from events associated with one type of weather pattern to events associated with another pattern then one can readily come up with something as 'accurate' or not as is Piers's product.

Exactly the same techniques as a fairground fortune teller in fact.

Now that's just how I think it appears to outsiders, not necessarily how I think it to be and if Piers wants general credibility he has to overcome that problem.

I would be very pleased if he could.

It's a different issue to point out that a period of more active solar surface could in general terms have some 'stirring' effect within Earth's atmosphere but translating that to subsequent individual events is the tricky bit. I find it hard to accept that a bit of activity on the sun in location A has a predictable effect on Earth in location B.

Still, if it can be done then Piers is your man. But how does he prove it ?

Stephen,

You don't need to be a weatherman to know when its raining, or when there are Deluges AND local floods AND tornadoes

The FACT is our forecasts of specific extreme events and incidence of worldwide concentrations of extremes are significantly skilled.

1. If you look at all our pre-announced major (eg Red Warning) SLAPs you will see

a) There are many more extreme events reported in our TOP SLAPS on the news than on average.

b) The specific extreme foretasted events are generally - 85% of the time CONFIRMED (against a luck level outcome of typically less than 10%).
For example take the most recent major SLAP 10-12 July which included in the forecast tornadoes likely in part of NW Europe. The result? - There were TWO extreme tornado events on 12 July. Look at tornado records in the defined area and you don't need to be a weatherman to see there are not many periods of three(or 5) days which have significant tornadoes. See links in:
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No26.pdf

2. You don't need to pretend to be unable to judge - just look at the record on which others have judged.
Independently audited reports show our extreme events predictions are properly statistically significant-
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact5&fsize=0

Posted by Stephen Wilde (forum) on Jul 10th 2010, 7:09 PM EDT
What is a 'world weather event'?
......................................
This is; http://www.dartmouth.edu/~floods/Currentt.htm
There should have been a sharp increase in regional flooding in the N.Hemisphere around the 11th/12th July.

"It's pretty easy to 'know' what the general nature of UK weather is during the summer months."

What you saying, 1976 or 2007?

Also the sort of extreme events that occur somewhere around the world virtually every day."

Typically every week or two, most of these hits will be forecast by WA.

"Mostly we in the UK get a broad mixture of sun rain wind and fluctuating temperatures so anyone can prepare a description based on that 'knowledge'and then retrofit it to what actually happens. With a bit of juggling of word definitions as to what the particular 'event' is,varying the scale of the events involved, shifting the timings, widening the geography and switching adroitly from events associated with one type of weather pattern to events associated with another pattern then one can readily come up with something as 'accurate' or not as is Piers's product."

Ok, I forecast a broad mixture of sun rain wind and fluctuating temperatures, no actually I`ll stick to my solar based forecasts considering I`m getting 49/52 weeks correct for temperatures.

"Exactly the same techniques as a fairground fortune teller in fact.
Now that's just how I think it appears to outsiders, not necessarily how I think it to be and if Piers wants general credibility he has to overcome that problem.
I would be very pleased if he could."

No that is just you being competetive, Piers has plenty of credibility with the public and with customers, and a good number of scientists too, including myself.

"It's a different issue to point out that a period of more active solar surface could in general terms have some 'stirring' effect within Earth's atmosphere but translating that to subsequent individual events is the tricky bit."

Your problem is that you make assumptions about things you have not actually learned about by hard study of data. It is OK to say you don`t know.