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Piers Corbyn: Front Page News - UK: Coldest May for 100 Years: Updated with comments
Wednesday, April 18th 2012, 7:12 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentColdest May for 100 Years: Spring will Retreat as Winter Roars Back by Nathan Rao, Daily Express

BRITAIN is facing the coldest May for a century with winter poised to return, bringing snow and bitter winds.

Parts of the UK are braced for the thermometer to plunge as the cool spring turns even chillier. Worst hit will be the East – although summer will be on hold across the entire country.

The freeze follows a miserable April which has seen below-average temperatures, snow and torrential rain.

Independent forecaster WeatherAction warned that next month will be the “coldest or near coldest for 100 years” in the East. Forecaster Piers Corbyn said May will bring a “run of bitter northerly winds” with snow at times.

He said: “We are making this headline public because of its importance. The very cold expectations apply to eastern parts and near Europe rather than Ireland and West Britain.” He said a system of cold air will get stuck over eastern Britain for most of the month.


Updated below with MUST READ comments from Piers Corbyn and Media link

Article continues below this advert:

High pressure over western parts will make it brighter although temperatures could plunge overnight to feel much cooler than normal.....

Click source link to read FULL report from Nathan Rao, and well done to your paper in reporting this forecast from Piers


"Coldest May in 100 years", forecasters predict - The Telegraph

Britain could be facing the coldest May for 100 years, with snow, bitter winds and freezing temperatures putting summer on hold.

The winter weather follows one of the wettest Aprils on record, with the threat of floods and storms to come over the next few days.

The Met Office has issued weather warnings for the South West, London, South East, Wales and the West of England due to flooding on roads and 60mph winds.

Hail storms are expected across the country and it is feared windows could be broken by giant hail, up to 1cm thick. In the north and Scotland temperatures could fall to -2C.

Despite the ongoing drought, heavy downpours could cause localised flooding, even in areas where there is hosepipe ban in place.

Independent forecaster WeatherAction has also predicted the next month will be the “coldest or near coldest for 100 years” in the East of England, with cold northwesterly winds...Click Telegraph link for more
Source Link: express.co.uk
Comments section below this advert:

Comments

Have Your Say

Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Apr 18th 2012, 8:43 PM EDT
A Great piece by Nathan Rao, Thanks!

I have to say that in my conversation with him he was very careful to get an accurate picture of what we are saying and that is reflected in the article which is a GOOD REPORT. So all I can say about those who say (in Express comments) that he exaggerates weather stories - eg in previous weather stories (not about WeatherAction) - that he probably did not overstate anything but was merely reporting what others had been saying - such as that delusional nonsense about the hottest ever summer to be in 2011; yes that was said - not by WeatherAction!

There are a couple of typos in the piece however so I have posted this in Express comments:

COLDEST OR NEAR COLDEST MAY FOR 100 YEARS AS SPRING RETREATS
19.04.12, 1:22am
THANKS for quoting our forecast and I hope gardeners and farmers wont blame the Express and WeatherAction for plant unfriendly weather!
Just a couple of typos I notice in Nathan's excellent report. The mention of 1981 was in fact 1891. I was referring to events reported by Craig M** on WeatherAction site where on prospects of SNOW in May he said "In W Eng SNOW is very rare in May, but (in 1935) Lancaster & Southport (both Lancashire) reported snow falling on the 17th. (Apparently the first snow observed in these two low-level locations in May since 1891)." The mention of SNOW in Surrey in 1996 was about the last time there was significant snowfall in May IN THE SOUTHEAST. The lay-out team must have shortened the sentence! WeatherAction (dotcom) website carries more information. Thanks, Piers Corbyn

** For Craig M's informative notes go to Comments on article:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5

For pic of original forecast and further Comments on CR see
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9454


Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Wednesday April 18, 2012 at 10:16 PM EDT

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Wednesday April 18, 2012 at 10:19 PM EDT
Posted by Jens Christian Heuer (Twitter) on Apr 19th 2012, 3:25 AM EDT
A brand-new paper from Jennifer A. Francis1 and Stephen J. Vavrus (http://marine.rutgers.edu/~francis/pres/Francis_Vavrus_2012GL051000_pub.pdf) may help to explain the current weather conditions in U.K.!?
The two scientists have found that enhanced Arctic warming compared to mid latitudes (Arctic amplification, AA)leads to prolonged extreme weather events, like droughts, heat waves, heavy rain and cold spells !
Due to the fact that jetstream is driven by gradient in air-temperature between polar regions and mid latitudes, jetstream slows down and becomes wavier. As a result the high and low pressure systems moved by jetstream slow down, too. As is known these weather systems arise from turbulence in jetstream like the vortexes of a raging river do.

Best regards
Jens Christian Heuer
http://meteoklima.wordpress.com/

Comment edited by Jens Christian Heuer (Twitter) on Friday April 20, 2012 at 4:37 AM EDT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Apr 19th 2012, 5:09 AM EDT
Hi Jens Christian Heuer

I think your find that the Jet Stream is changed by solar activity, the Russian heatwave and Pakistan flood a couple of years ago changed due to a specific solar process and then changed back again when solar activity was again going through another specific process. It was originally put forward that these events were due to "Man Made" climate change.

Piers not only predicted the start of these events he also predicted the end as well. So if it was "Man Made" climate change, then I guess Piers has more knowledge then the IPCC!

Sadly Piers was NEVER given any credit for that prediction, lets see if he gets the 100 year May cold in the UK correct.
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Apr 19th 2012, 3:34 PM EDT
THANKS ALL!
Some points:

1. The Express Weather pieces normally attract a heap of people raging against Nathan Rao on the lines "I USED TO (!!) read The Express until Nathan Rao started these weather stories."
For this report there is still a few like that and libel against me but a lot of other people have come in and made it a much better discussion than usual.
There are some attacks on some nonsense that Nathan has published in the past but one should bear in mind that he was quoting stuff, not making it up, and his critics also talk nonsense at times. The answer is that he needs to be a bit more discerning about who he quotes, OR more to the point he should quote people of all sorts and also report their success rate compared with chance for major weather, and we know what that would reveal!

2. I don't understand the 'Quality' Telegraph's comment "Independent forecaster WeatherAction has also predicted the next month will be the “coldest or near coldest for 100 years” in the East of England, with cold northwesterly winds... WHY have they said northwesterly when the news release is northerly (which includes NW'ly and NE'ly?) They did NOT phone me by the way. Only the Express spoke to me. This is NOT a small point because if we have the NE'ly winds we expect at times someone WILL quote the Telegraph and say 'wrong'.

3. The information on the jet stream and Arctic.
YES this is very important, and thanks very much Jens this is very helpful. I am NOT saying what they say is wrong, HOWEVER (and well put CO2 sceptic) like everything in standard meteorology they take a description of events and essentially arbitrarily divide it into two:- one bit they deem to be cause and the other as effect; whereas in reality what we have is mainly just DESCRIPTION and a common external cause (SOLAR etc DRIVERS).
Of course there IS cause and effect in the Earth's atmosphere system but vastly overstated in terms of cause=>effect and understated in terms of common external cause and feedbacks.

Examples:
(i) "The center of Low pressure is driving these weather fronts" NOW THINK! It is OK as shorthand but actually the fronts are where the action is and that if anything CAUSES the Low center to appear, and then the whole system moves and that is complicated.
(ii) "(Pacific warm water moving east etc) El Nino causes events all over the world", Well really? HOW?? No (I say) there is a common cause - solar-lunar driver - which causes these world wide events which are then erroneously deemed 'expressions of El Nino'.

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Thursday April 19, 2012 at 3:35 PM EDT
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Apr 19th 2012, 10:53 PM EDT
AND ANOTHER POINT....
The Report in the Express is excellent but The Daily Mail's report was unprofessional so I posted this comment which has not (yet) appeared; earlier written posts have appeared.


So MAIL You headline part quote our WeatherAction long range forecast which was for "The coldest or near coldest May for 100 years in Central and east parts*" WITHOUT ACKNOWLEDGEMENT. THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE. Your main enemy paper gave an accurate report with acknowledgement.
People who want to know more please visit our WeatherAction (dotcom) site.
For information our forecasts are nothing to do with standard computer models which have no skill in long range forecasting.
Thank you , Piers Corbyn, WeatherAction long range forecasters.

* rather than what they say which was: (The) coldest for 100 years - no mention of where or 'near coldest'

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Thursday April 19, 2012 at 11:00 PM EDT

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Friday April 20, 2012 at 1:00 AM EDT
Posted by Jens Christian Heuer (Twitter) on Apr 20th 2012, 3:57 AM EDT
Thanky very much for Your interesting statement!
Can You explain the kind of solar-lunar driver, You are looking for? Has it to to with influence of cosmic radiation modulated by solar activity (solar magnetic field acting as a shield of variable thickness against cosmic radiation!)on cloud formation proposed by Henrik Svensmark?

Best regards
Jens Christian Heuer
http://meteoklima.wordpress.com/
Posted by Climate Realist (forum) on Apr 20th 2012, 7:47 AM EDT
Jens, no, Piers science is different, not to do with solar activity changing cloudiness over decade long periods but to do with solar/magnetic/lunar activity altering the path of the jet stream and thus creating weather events over a seasonal / monthly periods.

Piers looks at solar impact on weather (albeit long term), Svensmark looks at solar impact on climate via cosmic rays and low level clouds.
Posted by Climate Realist (forum) on Apr 20th 2012, 7:49 AM EDT
Mr Corbyn,
On one hand I would like to wish you success with your forecast for May as being the coldest May for 100 years, but on the other hand, I'm not looking forward to it and hope that May does not turn out as cold and unpleasant as you forecast!

At least the rain will fill the reservoirs and make the water companies look stupid for declaring a drought!
Posted by Climate Realist (forum) on Apr 20th 2012, 7:54 AM EDT
We are going camping at the end of May and it is the start of the classic car rally season!
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Apr 20th 2012, 9:16 AM EDT
Jens,

No nothing to do with Cosmic rays.

Although Svensmark is a good scientist and a good guy his theory does not work. It fails basic observational tests - namely that world temperatures should follow the 11 year cycle in Cosmic Rays as modulated by solar activity, but they do not. As he says charged particles are key but observations show the ones that matter are not Cosmic Rays.

By far the largest signal other than annual variations is the magnetic cycle of the sun - 22yrs - which governs key aspects of solar particle (NOT Cosmic rays) connectivity with Earth; see one of the longest running posts on CR (3rd in all time most read):-

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=3307&linkbox=true&position=3

The warmists love to present Svensmark's work as THE solar-climate theory because it is so easy to shoot down. They do that when they want so they are left with their CO2 nonsense. On this the well-presented Solar-img podcast from 9 months ago which has re-surged up CR lists contains discussion on this:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=8084

IMPORTANT! Have a read of NEW NOTES FOR PUBLIC on the update we sent out to subscribers re the EXTRA RAIN in England in April and the "Wettest drought on record", via:

http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=450&c=5

The full May forecast is available now as 15-45day version (inclusive of update on 30 April);
or if you only want the 30day version from 30 April you can order that now (as '30day' on the link) and you will get now the (rest of) April, the full April etc extra UPDATE and on 30 April the 30day May forecast.


Thanks, Piers

Thanks Piers

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Sunday April 22, 2012 at 4:27 PM EDT
Posted by Jens Christian Heuer (Twitter) on Apr 24th 2012, 4:32 AM EDT
Is there a direct connection between
Solar Particles -> Ionosphere -> Jetstream (affecting weather systems)?

Best regards
Jens Christian Heuer
http://meteoklima.wordpress.com/

Comment edited by Jens Christian Heuer (Twitter) on Tuesday April 24, 2012 at 4:32 AM EDT
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Apr 24th 2012, 10:38 AM EDT
Jans,

Yes of course. For example see my presentation (Munchen Nov 2011) involving the dramatic solar events which drove the ending of the
West Russian heatwave Aug 15th 2010;
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9341

and a related pdf:
http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews10No31.pdf
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