Friday, April 20th 2012, 8:46 AM EDT
I will be keeping track of the recent 45 day forecast from Piers Corbyn - Coldest May in 100 years - and also keep a log from what the Met Office have to say over the same period, afterall they have the advantage with their large computer and man power, although they do not seem go any further then 30 days! - Met Office UK forecast link.
All Piers has for this calculation is a slide rule and calculator, and 30 years experience with the cause of climate change - The Sun. All being well with this forecast for May, we can look back and say........this has nothing to do with "man made" CO2.....it's the Sun Stupid!
UK Outlook for Wednesday 25 Apr 2012 to Friday 4 May 2012: A continuation of the generally unsettled pattern is likely for much of the period. Persistent rain is expected across many areas on Wednesday and Thursday, particularly across southern areas, with the best of any brightness across western Scotland. Showers or longer spells of rain are largely expected to continue for the remainder of the period. Showers will be heavy at times with a risk of hail and thunder, with southern and eastern parts most prone to longer spells of rain. Temperatures will be close to or just below average although they should recover to near or even above average across southern areas later. Towards the end of the period, there is an increased chance of drier and more settled conditions for some parts but confidence in these details is low. Updated: 1222 on Fri 20 Apr 2012
UK Outlook for Friday 4 May 2012 to Friday 18 May 2012: The start of May looks likely to remain unsettled with a continuation of showers or longer spells of rain, although there should also be some drier and brighter interludes. Temperatures will generally be close to or slightly above the seasonal average. Conditions may turn more settled across southern England for a time, with a greater chance of some drier and sunnier weather than of late. Further north, it looks likely to stay unsettled with further rain at times, particularly across northwest England as well as northern and western parts of Scotland.Updated: 1248 on Thu 19 Apr 2012
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I am becoming increasingly sure that the solar effect on the atmosphere from the top down is a primary driver of the size of the polar vortices, air circulation changes, jetstream behaviour,global cloudiness and albedo and ,ultimately, the amount of solar energy that gets into the oceans to drive the climate system.
However I differ from Piers in being doubtful that short term predictions are possible given the amount of chaotic variability within the system.I think it is apparent on multidecadal timescales and even more so on centennial timescales but not so easy to disentangle on the timescales that Piers works with.
However,there is some observational support for his work.
Not long ago we observed a record negative Arctic Oscillation at around the same time as a record minimum in solar activity.The jetstreams were pushed more equatorward and became more meridional with more 'blocking' behaviour.
Then, as solar activity increased towards cycle 24 maximum the Arctic Oscillation became more positive.
Now with a quieter sun once more the AO is more negative again.
We will have to watch and observe to see whether Piers can indeed extract accurate short term predictions from such short term solar variability.