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Is the start of the record cold May in the UK and Northern Europe down to the "Super Moon" or is it just a coincidence?
Tuesday, May 1st 2012, 9:06 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentGoogle Image link - Super Moon - Wikipedia

Those of you who are following the climatic developments for the start of a record Cold May in the UK and in Northern Europe this weekend, should take note of another factor coming into play at the same time, and that's "Lunar Forcing". It could be just a coincidence, but this is also the start of a "Super Moon" period.

I suspect Piers Corbyn has included this factor into his recent calculation, as to how much weight for it is contained in the "record cold May" forecast we will never know.

The criticism the Met Office have with Piers Corbyn's work is that they want to know how he calculates his long range weather forecasts, as they can't do it beyond a few days. They conclude from that, if they can't produce a long range forecast nobody else can do it either, but as your see from the May results, Piers will not be that far out from what he stated in mid April!

Here is a fact from inventions, when you invent a unique product to sell on the market you can leave others to simply guess what is in the contents, afterall, how many of you know what is inside a bottle Coca Cola or a Pepsi.


Article continues below this advert:

This is a sticking point with the Met office and Piers Corbyn, Piers will not reveal the contents of his product and the Met Office will not take his advise!

The WORLD is missing out on one of best, if not "the" best Weather Forecasting service. To this day, and at great financial cost to the economics to the world, The Met Office and NOAA continue to mix up Cause and Effect, with the "Effect" being the "Cause" and with dire consequences for our future.

It is little wonder that politicians are led to think CO2 drives the world temperature, and in doing so there is a "green" political agenda to stop a world from warming instead of cooling!

If this crazy notion is left to continue, the investment needed to help the human race adapt to a world that is cooling and NOT warming will not be available, and all for the sake of the Met Office and NOAA mixing up Cause and Effect. Its time the weather industry took the work of Piers Corbyn seriously and understood the real Cause and Effect on the Earth's climate from the SUN and NOT MAN.

Latest news for the "Super Moon" below...GR

Biggest Full Moon of the year due this weekend as 'supermoon' raises tides around the planet - Rob Waugh - Daily Mail

The moon is set to get a lot bigger this weekend - at least from our perspective on Earth.

And the 'Supermoon' - the nickname for a perigee full moon, closer to the Earth than usual - could cause tides to rise around the world as the moon's close 'fly past' exerts 42% more tidal force.

The moon will appear bigger and brighter - sky-watchers promise this 'supermoon' will be 16% brighter than most when it begins on Saturday at 3.35pm GMT, 11.35am EDT.

Full Moons vary in size because of the oval shape of the Moon's orbit. It is an ellipse with one side (perigee) about 50,000 km closer to Earth than the other (apogee).

Nearby perigee moons are about 14% bigger and 30% brighter than lesser moons that occur on the apogee side of the Moon's orbit.

A perigee full Moon brings with it extra-high ‘perigean tides,’ but this is nothing to worry about, according to America's NOAA space-weather predicting agency.

In most places, lunar gravity at perigee pulls tide waters only a few centimeters (an inch or so) higher than usual.

'To view this weekend's supermoon to best effect, look for it just after it rises or before it sets, when it is close to the horizon. There, you can catch a view of the moon behind buildings or trees, an effect which produces an optical illusion, making the moon seem even larger than it really is,' said Space.com, which reported the phenomenon
...click above Daily Mail link to read FULL report from Rob Waugh
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Comments

Have Your Say

Posted by Chris Mortimer (Twitter) on May 1st 2012, 12:00 PM EDT
Damn this global warming - I'll have to put the heating on in the greenhouse to protect my beans and courgettes now. (Could fill it with CO2 I suppose ;>))
Posted by Joe Olson (forum) on May 1st 2012, 1:25 PM EDT
The MET and BBC are captive pawns of the feudal elite, directed by European Royals and an international criminal banking cartel. AGW is one of many lies supporting this false paradigm, which is in the process of collapse.

Witness: http://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmatonis/2012/04/30/robert-wenzel-to-federal-reserve-leave-the-building-to-the-four-legged-rats/

Carbon Climate Frocing, Green Energy and Peak Oil are all companion lies necessary for the feudal control grid. I especially like the line 'telling the Truth to the Federal Reserve is rather like showing a card trick to your dog". Or as real scientists know, trying to explain Thermodynamics to a Climatologist. It is time to end this false paradigm. It is time for a New Universal Magna Carta !
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 1st 2012, 5:14 PM EDT
I'm not sure that anyone wants to know how Corbyn creates his forecasts. That would only be interesting if they could be shown to be accurate first!

It's a strange method to claim 'success' and 'confirmation' when there is a (often statistically expected)positive hit with a prediction, but to totally ignore all the misses. I'm struggling to see any science in the analysis and interpretation of accuracy of these 'forecasts'.
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on May 1st 2012, 5:52 PM EDT
Your struggle on Piers Corbyns forecast if you think the climate changes we see are from "man" and not the Sun.

You also sound a bit of an expert on the "misses" he has, so, let us in on this, how many "misses" has he had?

I would think your another "warmist" getting desperate and your unable to give an answer to the above question

Nice try!
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 2nd 2012, 3:51 AM EDT
Thanks for the reply Co2sceptic. This is the other thing that puzzles me, if anyone disagrees with or questions Corbyn they are deniers, delusional or as he put it a desperate little band of sniping warmists. Whilst recognising that there is a degree of anthropogenicity in climate change I don't believe it has any significant influence when compared to the effects of other 'natural' drivers.

So,why does everything come back to warmists getting 'desperate'? I'm looking at Corbyn's weather and earthquake predictions and not seeing anything more than a random correlation between what he forecasts and what happens. That makes me a warmist how? What sort of scientific answer is 'you disagree with Corbyn therefore you must be an AGW believer who is getting desperate'? I think we'll have to count this as another 'miss' as I am firmly in the sceptic camp!

As for the 'misses' you want evidence of, I tried to make a comment on the Weatheraction site but it wasn't deemed suitable for publication, my reply from Corbyn was simply a link to this site. So I've posted twice here http://bit.ly/Iit2zA and twice let Corbyn know that I have, but he hasn't replied.
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on May 2nd 2012, 6:42 AM EDT
Hi Elim

I took a copy of your link and have posted your comments below, you have carried over a question to do with Piers Earthquake/Volcano trial and for whatever reason put it towards his UK weather forecast. The weather service he operates has NOTHING to do with the said trial so I can't comment on this.

Looking at what you have said below about the Earthquake/Volcano criteria I don't think you have understood the frame that has been set on the points, he has a +-1 day each way on the dates and if he says it's a, R3 then its M6 and R4/5 M6.5.

What I can do for the MAY trial is stop at each time I run a monthly chart and put a score into the comments section at the end of the period, and then you can also comment on this as we progress through the month.

I support free speech but I do not often bang my head against a wall!

Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Apr 30th 2012, 11:57 AM EDT
So as we come to the end of the full April earthquake prediction period we can clearly see that the Corbyn Method has no statistical significance this month.

There were 6 periods of 'Extra Major' earthquake risk covering 15 days (50% of April) 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6+ occurred within these time periods. 4 earthquakes of 6+ occurred outside of a prediction window.

Of the 5 EQ's that occurred in a warning period only one fell in an 'R4' period (7 days) the other 4 fell in the lesser 'R3' period (8 days).

There were 3 EQ's of 7+ these all occurred in a non warning period.

REPORT Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 1st 2012, 3:24 AM EDT
No response from Piers or his followers?

Using M6+ EQ's showed there was no correlation between warning period and EQ frequency. So I tried looking at all M5+ EQ in April 2012.There were 181 EQ's falling into this category, bearing in mind that 50% of April dates were in a warning period and 50% without warning, there was a statistical significance to be found.Interestingly it was the wrong way round for the Corbyn Method! 31% of EQ's occurred in the warning period leaving 69% occurring in the non warning period!

Trying to be fair and take note of your modifications to warning periods I added a day either side which leaves 17% of April dates without a warning, during this time 18% of April's EQ's occurred which unfortunately for your trial, is much as would be expected with a random selection
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 3rd 2012, 4:33 PM EDT
Thanks Co2, to be fair I didn't introduce the subject of the EQ trial into the UK weather discussion, I was merely pointing out that Corbyn seems reluctant to engage in dialogue.
Anyway, I've found your May EQ discussion page and I've left a comment in there.
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on May 4th 2012, 10:32 AM EDT
Elim,

Your figures are wrong and your 'assessment' total nonsense.
See: comment 11
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9507
and comment 3:
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9551&linkbox=true&position=6


SUPERMOON etc


I have to say the Supermoon is more fun than decisive in what we do at present, but that does not mean it counts for nought.
One point to note is that it moves faster when closer to earth so although the tidal force is greater the decreased time the moon spends in that position reduces the effect (tidal force X time of action).

On MetO

I think the MetO "Shan't talk until you tell us how it's done", is a complete phoney position.

After all their own computers are full of patented secret non-peer reviewed items and they all use mobile phones which have more such secret stuff.

95% of Physics is never published or peer reviewed it goes straight into weaponary and gadgets. I don't think they will release their super-computer code to me.

No, they as an organisation actively do not want to know (leaving aside individuals). They have never attended any discussions we have held despite invitations. They are stuck with CO2 religion and what we do denies it. That's there prob and it wont change without political change. They are more interested in defending their delusional CO2 sect ideology than improving forecasts and saving lives lost in extreme events which can be better prepared for with application of our forecasts.

On publication we will do that in due course. It must be done. But they will employ the likes of Elim to spout delusionist nonsense and false figures against it.

Meanwhile if you haven't got our WeatherAction May forecast for UK-Ire, Eu , USA then please go to:
http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp


Thanks Piers

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Friday May 04, 2012 at 10:56 AM EDT
Posted by Edward Daniel Morgan (Twitter) on May 17th 2012, 2:13 PM EDT
Hello Elim,
I used to be a Glastonbury attending global warming believer. I heard of climate realism and thought I should check it out as I actually had never studied the science. For years since I have read 'Watts up with That' and this site and bought a few of Piers forecasts and followed avidly his press releases, I have also studied the moon, myself. It took me a while to read Piers forecasts. I find them full of little details hiding all over the place but when I put them together I could see that he was accurately reporting the successes of his forecasts. I'd be interested in what percentage you'd assess them at using his assessment system. (It is on the forecasts) I am puzzled at how our opinions are so different and would desperately like to progress this conversation.
Also, what hope would someone have if they just made up long range predictions. Would farmers buy the forecasts?, I'd be destined to be revealed as a charlatan if that was me. Have we not had a lot of cold winters? Has the sea ice melted? Do you buy the WeatherAction forecasts? What sources made up your mind? Can you prove one to me? All the best to you, Ed.

Comment edited by Edward Daniel Morgan (Twitter) on Thursday May 17, 2012 at 2:14 PM EDT
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