Aaron - Different - but difference mainly in South.
1st half was very cold for UK first week, then less cold mainly in South while N+NE stayed mostly cold with ongoing SNOW in parts of Scotland.
See this BRILL SNOW PIC from Mark Vogan December-like scene on A9 near Slochd Summit, S of Inverness Scotland 11May. (Daily Mail) http://fb.me/1vUMvcx6s
Thanks Mark!!
To get better informed with debate - Reader comments - on the cause of Little Ice Age type weather heavy hail and to get better informed through WeatherAction forecasts - how can you do without them? Go to: http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=453&c=5
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on May 15th 2012, 4:22 PM EDT
How Unusual is this May and what about June?!
I noticed today a silly little chorus from warmist delusionals (yes including the MetO) on the lines "How unusual is this May? Oh it's not that unusual because.... something on the lines of it's been cold and snowy in May before.
Now recall this comes from the same people who said we would by this decade have seen THE END OF SNOW IN UK IN WINTER LET ALONE LATE SPRING!
"EXPECT THE END OF SNOW IN SPRING!" they warned
Instead we have THE END OF SPRING IN SNOW!
But look, what a stupid question they ask 'How unusual is this May?'
They are the supposed guardians of the figures (along with The lie-ing, cheating, data-fiddling, Climate Research Unit of the 'University' of East Anglia which should be closed down). One would hope they could read the figures before they fiddle them again, or "Perhaps that wouldn't be such a good idea!" said the man with the 'hide the decline' trick computer program.
Their question is as mentally-deficient as the keeper of Greenwich Mean Time asking someone on the street "What's The Time?'
THE ANSWER
On current projections Central England Temperatures will be between the coldest in 100 years and the 5th coldest in 100 years. That estimates how unusual it is. If they say that is 'not unusual' we need to allocate some extra 're-education' places in primary schools.
AND JUNE!?
We have avoided speculation but have a look at:
Rain? Frost? 'Flamin June'?
Our WeatherAction June 45day forecast is now available - as usual from mid of preceding month - Wed 16th May via: http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp
That service also includes current month 30d (May) free and, when released later, June Euro/N Atlantic pressure forecast and the Quake/Red Warning/tornado risk (World) forecasts and of course the 30day June ('update' but it's normally little change) forecast with graphs. To upgrade from 30d to 45d services see http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=453&c=5
Thanks Piers
Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Wednesday May 16, 2012 at 12:35 AM EDT
Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Thursday May 17, 2012 at 2:02 AM EDT
Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Thursday May 17, 2012 at 4:00 AM EDT
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on May 19th 2012, 12:49 AM EDT
We assess things after the event
The main forecast features for WeatherAction were in order I would say:
(i) EXCEPTIONALLY COLD (eg coldest 5% of May's) espec East/centre
(ii) Biting North Winds - espec East/centre
(iii) Hail - esepc East/Centre
(iv) Some snow - mainly in North.
All confirmed so far. MetO taking snow is a ploy to avoid the first three embarrassing facts.
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 19th 2012, 3:33 AM EDT
"Meanwhile since the Met Office cant do a forecast for her Majesty's Diamond Jubilee..."
Current MetO forecast for Jubilee period.
"Indications are that the start of June will probably be mainly settled with dry, sunny weather for much of the UK. Temperatures will probably be above average for most areas."
TORRO's analysis of UK hail shows that 77% of H3+ hail storms occur in the 4 months of May-August. Not detracting from your forecast Piers, just saying that it would be unusual not to have hail in May (or snow)!
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 19th 2012, 2:45 PM EDT
Also of interest is a study that was published in the RMeTs journal 'Weather' (December 2008) by Alan Lapworth and James McGregor. They looked at seasonal variation of the prevailing wind direction in the UK.
From the conclusion:
"The main conclusion to be drawn is that in
Britain, northeasterly winds are at least as
common in spring as southwesterly winds,
and in some years are considerably more so.
Furthermore those years with a low frequency
of northeasterly winds in May are slightly
more likely to precede a warmer summer
than usual."
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on May 19th 2012, 8:25 PM EDT
Stop acting stupid Elim! Our forecast was about extra hail relative to normal, ditto Northerly/NE'ly winds, cold, snow (that stuff the warmists said would be a thing of the past by this decade), etc.
Everything we do is about deviations from normal for the period/month concerned. Don't you know that? All measurable stuff. Just measure it compared with normal instead of this waffle of 'not this or that unusual...'.
Why should anyone waste time on your blather to undermine and confuse what others say when you don't answer questions put and choose not to read (or understand) material put often in some detail.
And the Jubilee; of course the MetO would at some point come up with a forecast (and will probably change it many times) I obviously meant a forecast for at least 2 weeks ahead which is what we produced - http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=454&c=5
- from our detailed forecast issued 16 May; before they said anything. This was similar to the Royal Wedding; we put out a video forecast on April 1st and never changed. They put one out later and changed it a number of times although I think it was always on the wet side whereas we predicted the 'good to perfect' weather which was confirmed for the event(s) through the morning and afternoon and evening.
And No, once again - please wise up, we are NOT looking for confirmation etc of vague correlations of 'solar activity' (which covers a very wide range of items) and earthquakes, but why should I repeat this? We are about (trial) predicting solar (and lunar) driving force events (which might be extreme or more subtle) and connected extreme quake events (and weather events). I am frankly tired of your dishonest mis-representations of what we do - which has been explained many times.
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on May 20th 2012, 3:43 AM EDT
I have established that hail events and NE winds are commonplace in May,what are the normal values of wind direction and hail that you are measuring against to confirm that it has been an unusual month for these features?
"I obviously meant a forecast for at least 2 weeks ahead "
The Met's 16-30 day forecasts are more than 2 weeks ahead.
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