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Now that May is almost over it is time to look back at the forecasts.

Piers of course forecast a very cold May with a 90% probability of it being in the 5 coldest on record and a 80% probability of it being the coldest on record. The Met Office by contrast forecast a average to slightly warm May.

Up to 30 May the CET anomaly from the excellant Philip Eden site http://www.climate-uk.com/ was +0.2C which is likely to be close to the final figure.

So, the Met Office provided much better guidance.

Of course, Piers will point out that he was doing quite well for the first three weeks and has admitted that his forecast went seriously awry for the last week or so. The 'sudden warming' has he put it was well forecast by NWP models at least a week beforehand as I pointed out.

But, the forecast should be judged on the whole month otherwise it is like giving a gold medal to a pacemaker in a 10km race who happens to be leading at the 7km mark but ends up losing by a lap.

*****Troll alert - comment above*****

As a subscriber I was very happy with the forecast and as seen from Piers above he openly said when the forecast diverted (note the timing of the change was spot on). Unlike the closed shop of the Met Office, Piers talks to us and it's a group effort to improve the forecasts. Nor does Piers ever claim to be 100% correct. I will continue to be a subscriber. I choose to pay for this fabulous service, by contrast I have no say in government shelling out every time the Met Office want a new super computer to throw even more biased calculations into. I am also quite hacked off that they beg for private funds (jut check their website) and still expect TAX PAYERS to subsidise their substandard, ideologically driven drivel. I don't favour privatisation but I would happily make the Met an exception!

P.S. Any one who starts using CET as the entire basis of criticising Piers May forecast has not read the forecast, nor the statements Piers actually made. That is perniciously misleading and possibly libellous.

This type of deliberate trolling behaviour is not accepted at sites such as WUWT (amongst many others). Nor should it be here. I shall no longer feed the troll(s) who congregate here just to throw spanners in the works and make people doubt Piers. Buy one of his forecasts and make up your own mind - I did after following him for two years. Don't let other people, especially trolls make your mind up for you.

Tom

just rewind back to mid April, what did the Met Office say about the next four weeks, I can tell you what they stated as I posted it at CR, and what did Piers have to say, you can also see that at this site.

Your on the wrong horse and on the wrong site Tom, it is with credit to Piers he got most of that period right and the Met Office got it wrong. Sure the MO can look a few days ahead, you and I can do that, and that's WITHOUT a super computer

But now we seem back to the same pattern of weather for June as we had at the start of May, be it a little warmer as it's JUNE

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Thursday May 31, 2012 at 5:03 PM EDT

@Craig.
Posting facts is not trolling!
Piers chose to go very public with part of his May forecast, this is nothing to do with not reading the paid for forecast.
Whilst he did have the proviso of Central and Eastern parts of the UK, he did state that the CET temperatures he was looking for were 90% probability of </= 9.8C 80% probability </=9.1C.

Here we go again with the Tom and Elim show.

In a previous post "Have Weather Patterns Reverted To Normal - May 24th" I asked a question of Piers as to what had changed. Before he could respond, the Tom and Elim mutual support act were on site singing the praises of the "free" MO forecast (Yes - I do pay tax).
The response given by Piers, in contrast, was detailed, informative and helpful. I will be subsribing to his forecasts in the very near future as my personal understanding increases.

Many thanks Piers

Only stated the facts Chris.
Good luck with your subscription.

Wouldn't dream of calling you trolls. Ever heard of the Counter-Resistance during the occupation of France? They tried to infiltrate and break up resistance cells.
As Craig M says, Piers is not infallible and I would add that 80% success rate still gives a 20% possibility of failure. This post by Piers is an attempt to address a small number of recent flaws in his forecasts (the general forecast for most of May was right). He says in his post here that he suspects we are now entering a new mini-Ice Age caused by unusual behaviour of the sun, which means he will have to adjust his methods - that is the main theme of this bloody post! Do you think that's possible Elim, Tom? - Or are you still convinced that the Globe is warming? That's the important question you should surely be discussing here, otherwise it is just trollery - or counter-resistance.

Craig M - posting a factual assessment is not trolling.

I acknowledge that Piers was a probability forecast and so can not be absolutely right or wrong. Though of course, this does not stop Piers calling probability forecasts from the Met Office wrong. Illogical Captain.

Piers chose to make this forecast of his public so it is only correct that it is assessed. He moderates (censors) postings on his website so I doubt very much as if he will post anything from me.

If you want to spend money on Piers forecasts then that is up to do. Perhaps he can use it to make his website compliant with all relevant legislation.

As for June's weather, the circulation pattern has reverted to a normal pattern for June.

As for June's weather, the circulation pattern has reverted to a normal pattern for June

Interesting quote, best to look back on this at the end of June!!

June typically sees a very zonal regime. This year it seems to have happened exceptionally early, more typically it happens between the first and second weeks of the month. In some years of course it doesn't happen at all and we really do get a 'flaming June'.

However, Lamb found that this change in pattern tends to occur in about 70% of years. It is one of his singularities.

It was noted before Lamb. Hence June is often referred to as the European Monsoon, a term first coined in the 1940s.

Comment edited by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Friday June 01, 2012 at 9:42 AM EDT

Tom

I think a better name for you would be Philip Eden!

Just out of interest who was the guy who found out about the Earth temp balance in the 19th cent.

His records and analysis from the Pacific area found that when a Low pressure area was replaced by a high, the temps had little or no change in the long term. Clever stuff for the time he proved how the Earth temps remained in check and today we can look at these low's and high's as a switch. Hence the work from Piers and the Sun.

Whoever it was he must be turning in his grave knowing you guys think a trace gas is more powereful then the Sun!!

Gilbert Walker?

Yes

SIR Gilbert Walker

Sir Gilbert Walker and a Connection between El Niño and Statistics - PDF - Great read.

If only he was around today

Craig M said I shouldn't just use the CET to judge Piers May forecast, He has a point so we can now look at the countrywide anomaly maps.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/anomacts/

For mean temperature there is only a tiny strip along the north east Scottish coast which is showing a negative anomaly. The bulk of Scotland and Northern England shows no anomaly whilst Northern Ireland and southern England shows a small positive anomaly.
Similar patterns are in the daily max and min temperatures.

In summary, no where near being the coldest May.

GW was very disappointed not to find a clear signal of correlation between sunspots and weather. He was as you say a very interesting man and a great pioneer.