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PIERS CORBYN UK FORECAST MAY 2012
Piers Corbyn: Europe June 2012 - Public Headline Summary
Saturday, June 2nd 2012, 8:00 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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WeatherAction’s long range May forecast well captured the main very cold N/W and very warm/heatwave E/SE contrast which Piers Corbyn warned of mid-April and which a gaggle of churlish standard Meteorologists derided.

They went eerily quiet for three weeks as their short-range forecasts failed again and again while Piers’ single long range forecast stunned thousands.

Click source to download WA News Report 26 - Europe June 2012 - Public Headline Summary (PDF)
Source Link: WA News 26 2012 (PDF)
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REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 8:45 AM EDT
'Standard meteorology' correctly forecast that overall, May's temperatures across the UK would be average or slightly above average.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 9:59 AM EDT
Yeah right!

Apart from the first three weeks being well below the average and the last week being well above average they did very well, NOT!
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 10:53 AM EDT
Yes they were RIGHT unlike Piers.

When you forecast for a month, it is a month that you have to be judged on.

Piers should publish the temperature anomaly map for the month and see how it compares to his forecast.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 11:46 AM EDT
So their customers were told not to worry about the first three weeks of May as the MO had an insight that the end of the Month would be so warm, it would all balance out.

Tom, were do you get this stuff from!
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 12:47 PM EDT
No. Their customers were told that May would average out to normal to slightly above normal temperatures which is percisely what happened.

Stop cherry picking data.
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 12:52 PM EDT
Why are you triumphantly showing the GFS Raw anomaly forecast maps that didn't come to fruition?!
Piers, why do you have to be so rude about everyone?
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 2:05 PM EDT
Exactly. It was a forecast for the MONTH so verify for the MONTH.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 2:54 PM EDT
The MO do not produce forecasts beyond a few days. What they tend to do is exactly what you have said, higher or lower then average temps.

That, is not a weather forecast or any merit.

I have no doubt that the eruption on the surface of the Sun on the 17th May was the key game changer to Piers May forecast.

A few days later the pressure system around the UK changed and so did the original forecast from Piers.

I have seen the latest WeatherAction forecast from Piers, have you?
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 3:00 PM EDT
That, is not a weather forecast or any merit.

So why do supermarkets buy it. Answer, for stock plannin.

I have no doubt that the eruption on the surface of the Sun on the 17th May was the key game changer to Piers May forecast.

Rubbish. NWP models from the 15th signalled the change and from your own admission, they do not use any information of variations on the sun. So that is the case, how did the models capture the change. It wasn't by luck, it was by the application of physics.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 3:08 PM EDT
Post me the links to the NWP models from the 15th to the 21st and let's have a look
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 3:37 PM EDT
@Co2 Here's a good video for you to watch, from 15th May. Although the analysis is somewhat off (!) the charts are there for you to see.
The important bit to note are the forecast height anomalies and the forecast movement of the Jet Stream northwards, both of which verified. This was clearly signalled before the 'eruption' on the 17th.

http://youtu.be/ubsz2UfqYo4
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 4:04 PM EDT
I will look at this with interest when I return home, the change we are talking about is the flip from cool to warm around the 21st. Your saying something else, in as much the flip appeared earlier, and yet Joe Bastardi did not mention an earlier game change, in fact he praised Piers.

Until I see what you he put before me I will also ask Joe about this as two heads arew better then one.
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 4:36 PM EDT
Thanks Elim but also I posted this on the 16th May

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?action=report&uid=9495&id=9638

because of the signal in the NWP models.
REPORT
Posted by Craig M (Twitter) on Jun 2nd 2012, 5:28 PM EDT
Did the models show the change or a change consistently between runs? Was there cross model agreement? Why did most experienced commentators say the UK warm spell took forecasters by surprise? Be interesting to hear Joe B's take.

Piers Jubilee forecast going very well so far with regards to contrasts and timings. Hope it's cool enough for those who doubted this Jubilee cool spell - very British weather. Finally after trying to rain for the past three days and failing to do much more than a few drops there is some much needed precipitation to soak the soil. I know a few gardeners like me are relieved at this. Had this fallen one day earlier it would have made a big difference to local May rainfall totals.
REPORT
Posted by Stephen Wilde (forum) on Jun 2nd 2012, 6:54 PM EDT
I think I did better than Piers or the Met Office with this:

Posted by Stephen Wilde (forum) on May 4th 2012, 6:52 AM EDT

"I think I'll make a punt on this one.

Overall, May temperatures for the UK will turn out about average despite the cool start.

My reasoning is on the basis that the cool pattern seen during April is likely to be mitigated during the month as the polar high pressure cells retreat northward somewhat.

It won't be enough to result in a warm May but it should prevent the worst fears of a cold May from being realised.

Rainfall in the south of the UK should be a little above average with the main depression tracks across the South or Midlands."

from here:

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9557

I guessed that the normal seasonal poleward shift of the jets plus the upcoming solar max would combine to outweigh the generally quiet sun for a while.

I think one can draw conclusions from solar behaviour but only in very general terms. On short timescales there is much internal system variability that can overturn the longer term solar effects.

The Met Office doesn't give enough weight to solar influences and Piers's attempts at short term precision probably attach too much weight to solar (and lunar) effects but kudos to Piers for trying.
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