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Thanks for posting CR!

THIS is superbly in line with our top level R5 Red warning for around 6-7th June as are the deluges in Britain and Ireland (re existence of such irrespective of location) and reports from New Zealand etc - see:-

http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=9734
http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp foot of article re NZ

There was also an M6.0 earthquake in Peru on 7th June in line with QV period 5-7th;
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

In line with predictions there was a noteworthy Earth Facing Coronal Hole (EFCH) on 4/5th and Earth is/was in the fast solar wind stream from that EFCH on 5th-8th covering the whole of the WeatherAction warned period 5-8 June.
http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?day=06&month=06&year=2012&view=view

Geomagnetic activity reached K4

Piers

Comment edited by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Friday June 08, 2012 at 8:08 AM EDT

This is NOT superbly in line with the top level R5 period 6-7th.

UTC timing puts it outside the usual +/-1 day period too.


From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology...

"A deepening low pressure system is expected to move along the southern NSW coast Monday (4th AET) night and Tuesday (5th AET).

Very heavy surf which may lead to localised damage and coastal erosion is forecast for parts of the South Coast forecast district Monday night and Tuesday.

Beach conditions in these areas could be dangerous and people should stay well away from the surf and surf exposed areas.

Water levels above the highest astronomical tide of the year are possible.

Rain which may lead to localised flash flooding is forecast for parts of the South Coast and Snowy Mountains forecast districts Monday night and Tuesday.

Damaging winds averaging 60 km/h with peak gusts around 110 km/h are forecast for parts of the South Coast forecast district Monday evening."

Hi John

The storm periods are a very grey area in more then one way.

What I look for is an enhancement i.e a storm that powers up.

Your right the original storm period was OUTSIDE the period, but it charged up INSIDE the period.

The last time we had a Hurricane and a Typhoon that powered up INSIDE the period, the energy was still there, be it lower, after the Solar effect had been reduced.

The UK storm is a good example of this, the Solar effect has been reduced as of today, but there is plenty of energy left as you can read in the latest report.

Sadly we dont have the funding or resources to produce any more data on this as the MO are the one's with the computer power.

All we have is the time frame and as you can see it WORKS!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Friday June 08, 2012 at 10:33 AM EDT

Co2, storms 'power up' as part of their life cycle. East Coast Lows hit Australia several times a year and are at their most common in June, they occur at this time because of the temperature difference between the Tasman Sea and the land. This little chap had his card marked well before the sun even got out of bed.
Also, where was the snow?
I'm surprised one M6 EQ can 'confirm' an R5 period?
Low affecting SW England is a little bit more unusual.
No tornadoes/cyclones/hurricanes/massive hail?

Elim

As per other comments, let us all know when the next M6+ is due and when the next tropical storm or Hurricane!!!

Well the 3 year average for US tornadoes in the month of June is 251, I'm pretty sure we'll be seeing plenty in the R periods this month (is it just 2 days that aren't covered by R this month?)

Average number of M6+ EQ's a year is 150, we're about halfway through the year and we've had about half that number, so I expect we'll be seeing a few more of those too. Amazing to think they average 3 a week if you spread them evenly!

JT, ET What is your problem? I said these developments are superbly in line with AROUND 6-7 June and you had better read on to see what I meant and why you are being churlish and stupid to suddenly shriek when you clearly don't know what you are talking about.

Sadly I see the usual deranged deceit from the usual churlish deceiver(s) who really need to get a life.
Before they start arguing the toss about one day or so they need to actually get to know
(i) what independent observers in Australia and NZ do and say.
(ii) what WeatherAction actually says and does about these timings.
Who do you work for ET(s)?
What is/are your real ID(s)?
What would you care to bet on this month? Of course you wont bet on anything because you admit you don't even read the forecasts - because you don't want to pay for them because that would reveal your ID and that might embarrass.

Readers one wonders: For all their huff and puff why wont they place bets?

Some facts:

1) WeatherAction bets (effectively against the Met office who set odds which were then reduced by William Hill in their standard way) consistently made money until William Hill terminated the arrangement because they were losing too much:-
http://www.weatheraction.com/pages/pv.asp?p=wact45

2) There are typically 2 to 4 days of R5 per month (and sometimes none) not half the month and for an honest test (which we dont expect from ET) one must find the most extreme events of the month(s) and see if they are at or near the R5 (and R4's) and lo and behold they normally are, even in regions for which we do not usually make explicit forecasts (Australia and New Zealand).

We at WeatherAction use the coincidences or near coincidences here to guide actual forecasts at later times, which in fact may have different timings from R5(4)s. Sometimes we do state different timings for events around the world (utc) for various reasons (Tropical storm formation timings being one example). This of course neatly shows the denouncers really are just clever-sounding nasty people who don't know what they are talking about, or do know but just spread destruction.

The finding of near/actual coincidences of major R events has for example enabled the well-timed forecasting of formation of TC Yasi in early 2011 and the Adelaide heatwave later in 2011. Our single event forecasts in Australia & NZ have shown significant skill.

This work is helped by independent observers who recognize what is going on (ie what is a significant event and powering-up) rather than the 'Cherry missing' of churls who make so much noise but don't have the guts to reveal their interests and identities.

In Australia and NZ it is as CR reports the storms develop and build often with peak action in or close to R5(4) periods. If the timings are consistently 'early' compared with the R-timing (which was the case for Tropical storm formation eg when researched, although that may depend on the definition of 'formation') or late, that will guide forecast development. This event noted may be in the 'early-ish' category as were USA Trop Storms or it may be their peaks in some defined way were in the R5. From our work and independent reports I know these events are IN LINE with the R5 expectations.

For more on what observers in NZ tell us recently please see:-
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=461&c=5

ALL the AccuWeather extremes listed as the most extreme events in USA weather in 2011 were explicitly predicted by WeatherAction to within a day. What are the odds against that happening by chance?

Piers

Elim

No tornadoes/cyclones/hurricanes/massive hail?

I found several stories re the above, but was unable to conclude if they were a "normal" situation. I don't put every event down to "Solar" activity, I don't have any funding or resources to do that sort of investigation.

Thanks for the UK mention of the current storm as being outside of normal. I noticed that it had "powered down" after the R5 period.

Re your Earthquake stat, once again you don't commit on anything other then a "hindsight" approach. Have a "guess" when the M6+ are going to take place for the rest of June, your trying to make it sount as if its easy and random. When Piers lands these inside his period your should congratulate him not run him down!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Saturday June 09, 2012 at 2:06 AM EDT

Churlish
Stupid
Deranged
Deceit
Nasty
Fools

Never in the scientific or commercial world have I come across anyone who publicly uses language like this when someone questions their findings.

Why won't I place bets? I don't gamble. What has William Hill's got to do with discussing scientific methodology?

The problem with your 'R' periods for both weather and seismic activity is that 'anything goes' no matter if it's an 3,4 or 5 level. An M6 EQ can 'superbly confirm' an R5 period. It can also do the same for an R3. Any extreme weather event anywhere on the globe seems to have the same superb confirming powers. June has 2 days without an R period, the world is a big place, as I mentioned in another thread you can confirm it a 'superb success' now!

Whilst leaping excitedly on events that confirm the more specific forecasts, you seem to completely ignore similar events that happen outside the forecast period. Little account seems to be taken of seasonally 'normal' weather behaviours.

@Co2 Would I care to guess when the next M6+ EQ will take place? No, I don't do predictions, but Piers has got the 13th - 24th June and 28th - end, covered with warnings, so probably sometime in those time slots with maybe a rogue one slipping into an unpredicted slot!

What? Elim, you've only just noticed that Piers is an old firebrand!
Nobody here is likely to change him and we just have to take him as we find him. Personally I have no trouble with that. If you do, you can always submit your evaluations of Piers' work to Skeptical Science or similar blogs and get it peer-reviewed there.

You don't do predictions? Piers does and the best way he found to test his skill was to place bets with William Hill. I'm not a gambler either, but I don't call that gambling.That Hill eventually put an end to it was a pretty good confirmation he was getting it right. Moreover it must have helped him considerably to get the business on its feet in the early days.

I also used the word 'malevolent'
Cheers Piers