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PIERS CORBYN
Piers Corbyn: Call Global Cooling Deniers to account!: Updated by Piers Corbyn
Tuesday, June 12th 2012, 5:13 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Piers said: “We score 95% success for our ‘Solar factors’ changes to TV forecasts of potential major storms. We warned when snow/snow showers forecast by UK MO for Scotland in recent winters would turn into economy-halting blizzards. The nationalist Scottish Government however doesn’t want to know and prefers to take instructions from the English dominated UK MO and carry on building prayer wheels (wind farms) in the name of so-called CO2 Global warming which is an implicit part of the UK MO failed approach and the economy-ruining ‘Green’ policies of the Coalition Govt and EU. Standard meteorology has reached its peak and no amount of extra computing power can overcome its limits anymore than £42 million spent on improving candles could make a light-bulb or laser beam.

Click source to read FULL report from Piers Corbyn

Updated below with MUST READ comments from Piers Corbyn
Source Link: WeatherAction News 27 2012 (PDF)
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REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 2:53 AM EDT
Your headline suggests that
i) You can forecast 95% of UK's storms
ii) It would cost the nation £351 to use you not the Met Office.

Can you verify either of these statements?
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 5:29 AM EDT
And also I have never seen you predict how much rain will fall and where, only vague statements such as double the amounts that standard meteorology says.

The West Wales floods were very similar to the Cumbran situation a couple of years back (at a time when Piers was predicting floods down the east coast) in that they were due totally to the local topography setting up a seeder-feeder mechanism. When this happens the rainfall can be greatly amplified and it is impossible to predict by any method.
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 7:17 AM EDT
Hi Tom

Nice of you to recal that event. Piers used a "look back" for his forecast and got the UK bit correct, but NOT the location.

He put out the warning sign a month or so before at the First ClimateFoolsDay meeting.

Roger Harrabin and Richard Black were there, when the event hit the UK there was NO MENTION of the Piers Corbyn forecast.

Again I can't stress this enough with you guys, Piers was expecting a major event to happen in the UK. He got the period right and the country it would happen, all that from 93,000,000 miles away.

Here is the link to what was expected to be a NORTH SEA STORM SURGE. It turned out to be the Cumbria Flood!!!!!!!

Met Office Forecast issued at 06:51 for Thursday 19th November

See also this link for ALL of the Noth Sea Storm Surge links, there are 14 at the current count. You need to look at the first few to locate the Cumbria Flood event
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 7:46 AM EDT
Co2, there's a vast difference in aetiology between a North Sea surge and the orographic rainfall that caused the Cumbrian floods. That's like me predicting England will win the football and then declaring it a success when Spain do, because it was a win and I said there'd be a win!!
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 8:10 AM EDT
Just to recap, Piers stated that there was a very high chance of major weather event to take place in the UK during a certain period.

There was!! but not in the exact location.

If the Met Office stated in advance (say a few days) a similar forecast you would be singing their praises. Not because they missed the target but worked out there was a major weather event due to hit us and we should all keep an eye on the latest reports to see where the event would happen.

To put Piers down about this is to say the least silly.

If Piers had the resources I have no doubt he would have pin pointed the location a week in advance. The way his forecast is put together is to inform HIS clients of any change.

Just because you NOT a client you have no idea if he modified the forecast a few days before the event took place.

The key thing here is your mixing up skill of the monthly forecast and a days warning from the MO
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 10:34 AM EDT
As I've said before, shorter term accuracy is the better combination :)
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 11:12 AM EDT
And I think WE have said before there is more going on with the Climate then the Met Office understand. It is a cost to each and everyone of us that there is a compete lack of understanding as to how our weather system is influenced with predictable solar activity.

All your doing is keeping this information hidden from the public domain, where in fact you should be promoting this as something the Met Office should be able to use in the event of a high chance of a public warning.

The recent event in Wales was such an event, do you think the public were given proper advise?

The event in Cumbria, were people given proper advise?

I'm not saying that they should take it for gospal that what Piers says from a month ago should be acted upon blindly, however why is it beyond the Met Office to make use of this information when it could help save lives.

If the Met Office enhanced their rain or wind forecast due the solar activity in these periods it would help the people who live in those areas to expect a more accurate weather forecast that reflected the end result. Instead the event ends up by taking people by suprise!

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Wednesday June 13, 2012 at 11:23 AM EDT
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 11:26 AM EDT
There was sufficient notice of impending severe weather. The orographic rainfall, as it often does, produced much higher rainfall totals in a localised area. If you understand how terrain affects rainfall then you will know on this occasion that solar factors did not play a (significant) part.
This article may help.
http://www.geologywales.co.uk/storms/summer12a.htm

I'd still love to know how Piers arrived at his figure of 95%!
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 11:34 AM EDT
We have no idea as to who you are, and yet you want to call the shots as to how Piers calculates his forecast result. Kettle Black, Black Kettle!
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 12:03 PM EDT
Piers tells the public that he can "warn of 95% of UK major storms" this member of the public says, wow - 95%! Are you sure?!
REPORT
Posted by Co2sceptic (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 1:26 PM EDT
Maybe Piers is saying give him the resources for a fraction of the cost and he will do it a lot better then the Met Office
REPORT
Posted by Elim (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 3:04 PM EDT
But that would require hard facts around forecast performance/verification, and those aren't available. Note - this is nothing to do with how he makes his forecasts, just the results from those forecasts.
REPORT
Posted by Tom Richards (Twitter) on Jun 13th 2012, 5:13 PM EDT
Its a shame that Piers doesn't make such a claim in an advertisement as then we would be able to force him to substaniate his claim.

PS. His website is still illegal.
REPORT
Posted by John from France (forum) on Jun 13th 2012, 5:32 PM EDT
Yaaaawwnn!
REPORT
Posted by Piers Corbyn (Twitter) on Jun 14th 2012, 1:39 AM EDT
John - quite but this might cheer you up, and thanks CR:

But ET, Oh dear dear!

I was calling climate change deniers to account following floods in Wales last week so they back track years to the Cumbria floods which were under SWT not SLAT!! I somehow feel this is a diversion!

Well how about a bit more back track? ET you are due a forced march to room 101*. ET what date would you not like me to mention? - Oh now I hear the screams "Please not room 101, no no no.."

"Yes! yes! yes! scream the raging mob from Southern England with more than a hint of glee, who had assembled at formerly SevenOaks but had been hastily renamed ONE Oak.

The date with destiny is
OCTOBER
15th
1987
AAAhahahahahaahahhahhhhhhhhaaaahahahhah!!!!!!!!!

So back towards now (but let's leave ET in Room 101 with MickHeil Poisson)

1. There WAS at that time in fact a North sea storm surge** on the East side of the North sea when we said. That would have been news (and probably was in Denmark, NW Germany and North Holland) but in UK was overshadowed by Cumbria floods at about the same time.
(** storm in North Sea with north winds driving sea South against coast making a surge in tide height; in this case mainly on East side of N Sea. We had not forecast a flood on UK East coast because although there would be some sea level rise we said defences would probably cope). SO FACT that forecast was confirmed.

The Cumbria event was an extra event which we had not forecasted (although now we could, or get closer to it), and of course as CR pointed out the key highest confidence point of that forecast period was that there would be EXTREME storm/rain/wind events.
It was NOT the non-occurrence of something we had predicted - which would be a proper failure. It is important to understand this because the origin of what we do is NOT to predict everything but to predict certain things and make it clear there are some things outside of our prediction space - and there STILL ARE.

The standard approach of the ET malevolent detractor(s) is precisely to, change the subject of course to defend their paymasters and concerning WeatherAction:-
(i) look for things we didn't address and call those failures. (Like David Beckham FAILING to score goals in a match he wasn't playing in)
(ii) go down to detail we don't address (Like "You might have predicted who won the race but you FAILED to predict the color of the jockey's socks") and call those failures.
(iii) NOT ACKNOWLEDGE the wider picture or indeed almost anything we correctly forecast.


2. Back to now.

This is about 'Forecasts of forecast errors NOT about our more general forecasts'.

We specifically can CORRECT ALL Met Office rain /wind forecasts which come under certain categories (which we know about).

The SLAT enhancement factors work 95% of the time. Oh dear ET has a problem here. He doesn't want to know how his forecasts can be improved but changes the subject. {Film buffs recall Tarkovsky's film 'The Stalker'.}

=> This means that in the coming year or three for ALL Met Office forecasts which make rain/wind predictions in periods which include our R5 or R4 periods we can say that precip levels WILL be typically twice the amounts they suggest (under their current models without them upping the figure by stealing knowledge from our RTQ forecast). The MetO want to spend £42M to improve their extreme storm forecasts. We can do this for ALL OF THEIR UK FORECASTS without a penny being spent on new computing power.

A public sub to these is £351*** for three years, so ANYONE can improve MetO TV forecasts from their arm-chair.
(*** 3x117 via http://www.weatheraction.com/wactmember5.asp )
If you live in a yellow warned area, say, and we have an R5 turn that yellow heavy rain or whatever alert into a FLOOD CERT and get the hell out of that caravan or tent downriver on a flood plain.
In an R5 (or equivalent) period two years ago some campers drowned in downhill torrents in USA mountains when rain was hugely ramped up above standard met levels by our R5.

=> MAJOR STORMS CAN ONLY OCCUR IN OUR RED WARNING PERIODS (R level dependent on circumstances). If MetO come up with extreme rain or wind forecasts in a period which we say eg is NSF/Q (No specific Factors / Quiet) IT WILL NOT HAPPEN.

We explicitly warned of such errors about to happen at some dates in 2007/08 (eg) when in desperation to get something right MO kept saying WORSE/AS BAD to come after the R5/R4 had gone.
THEY WILL BE MAKING THE SAME ERRORS THIS SUMMER


If the MetO want a licence to include these factors at an earlier stage than Michael Public in his armchair they only need to ask.
ET, do you speak for the UK Met Office?
(Oh sorry I forgot we locked you in Romm 101 so you can't hear and there is no telephone in Room 101 only a blaring TV set repeating MickHeil Poisson. "Hurricane what hurricane?" and you muttering "Scientific advance? What scientific advance?"


(*Room 101 was The room in George Orwell's 1984 in which all your worst fears were kept)

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