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The rainfall that caused the floods in Japan and Russia fell in a period without an R warning - how can you use them as confirmation?

Elim

It would help me and others when making a statment you put up the date in question, what dates are you looking at?

Heavy rainfall in Japan that led to flooding started 11/7

Russian rainfall 5-6/7

In some areas almost 80cm (31in) of rain fell in just 72 hours - devastating a vast swathe of the country's southern Kyushu island.

The above quote is from the SkyNews article

There may have been rain BEFORE the Period of the JULY Apogee, but the solar influence I report is NOT before, the News report shows extream rain fall during this period.

Again you are distorting the information, I have seen enough from you and others like you, you all seem to have an agenda and that is to put down Piers

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Monday July 16, 2012 at 8:44 AM EDT

The Sky news article that you're using doesn't mention when the rain actually fell. Have a look here for the date.
http://www.westernpacificweather.com/2012/07/12/unprecedented-rainfall-and-flooding-across-japan/
So inaccuracy that supports Piers is OK, but accuracy that doesn't is to be censored?
What is the purpose of this site?

The article mentions the last three days with the worst part being most recent, maybe it was raining heavy before but not as much as it did recently!

The purpose of the site is and always will be to report, without distortion, weather events that have nothing to do with AGW!

If we were funded and had research to back up what we do 100% of the time how much better for all of us, you included. I have to make do with reports from sources that I can rely with, I dont have a list of global contacts to send out and check what other sources have said!

You have a track record of putting reports up that distort this, the Hurricane reports being one of them, for whatever reason you dont see the connection I make with the Solar/Lunar influence, and yet the Hurricanes happen during a forecast, explain that!

Your now trying to say the Japan floods were earlier then those reported on SkyNews!! and then you chip in that I use inaccuracy to support Piers, what else are you going to chip in next, that we are all funded from the oil industry and we all think smoking is good for you, see what I mean!

I must move forward and assume your interest in putting Piers down is a religious following of AGW, good luck with that, but its not based on science and thats something your just have to accept.

I promote the views of Piers Corbyn and its not something new, I have known Piers for 25 years, I have pointed out to him his faults in the past in doing what he does, so its not been a one way thing going on.

I like to reply to comments, but not with a Religious AGW view on this topic.

If you can try a bit harder to reason through your side all the better for all of us.

CO2 - where in your Sky news report does it say when the rain fell?
I gave you a link to show that over 500mm of rain had fallen in the 24 hours prior to July 12
Here's a BBC report dated July 12 that confirms that over 500mm of rain had already fallen in less than 24 hours.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-18808978

I'm not saying there hasn't been rain during the R4 period, but this was an event that was well established before R4. I'm a scientist, not a tactician, the reporting in that PDF is misleading and I note from the Watt's Up investigation that the 'biggest hail in 30 years' announced on the PDF is equally inaccurate.

Things like this give scepticism a bad name and that concerns me.

Im not sure what point your making......I have just noticed the time frame from Piers...

The actual period that Piers put up was for 13-14.5 July, as you know he uses +-day on that so the 12th July would fall on this period. I think Japan is more or less first in the date line so the timing of this may look worse then it is.

What date did you have down for this period?

The rains started 11 July. Japan is 7 hours ahead of us, so depending on when on the 11th they started it could even have been 10th UTC time.

CO2S

I think the different start dates are down to local Japan time (JST) & UTC which is 9hrs. I recall a similar disassociation when I was reading/seeing reports during the Sendai quake/Fukushima reactor.

Anyway as best I can tell this was a four day event Thu-Sun with what appears the heaviest intensity on Sat (widespread intensity - Thurs before noon had 120mm - see below). First article prob most useful - it has times for the when the main rainfall was.

Japan Times

"According to radar data, the town of Soeda in Fukuoka Prefecture was inundated by 90 mm of rain in just an hour through around 5:30 a.m., while Hita received 85 mm of precipitation between roughly 6:15 and 7:15 a.m.

Yame, Ukiha and Chikugo in Fukuoka Prefecture all set new local records with hourly precipitation of 110 mm that ended at about 6:30 a.m.

In Aso, Kumamoto Prefecture, more than 730 mm of rain has fallen since Wednesday, surpassing the city’s average of 570 mm for July.

In the three days through 11:20 a.m. Saturday, cumulative rainfall totaled some 780 mm in Aso, 650 mm in Yame and 600 mm in Hita, with as much as 150 mm more forecast to fall in a 24-hour period ending noon Sunday."

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120715a1.html

Japan Times

"The torrential rainfall since Thursday in northern Kyushu caused floods and mudslides in Kumamoto, Oita and Fukuoka prefectures, sweeping away cars and people without warning...The four days of intense rain also caused river levees to give way, inundating or destroying houses with torrents of muddy water."

Japan Today

"Four days of torrential rainfall wrought devastation in the four prefectures of Kumamoto, Oita, Saga and Fukuoka, with rivers bursting their banks, and muddy water destroying or inundating houses...

http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/flood-hit-evacuees-start-returning-home-in-kyushu

Wall Street Journal (Japan)

"Thursday’s rainfall is unusual in its stubborn intensity. The JMA said a record 120 millimeters of rain has soaked southern parts of Kumamoto prefecture within a one- hour period shortly before noon on Thursday. The historical dumping comes after the region has already endured several hours of heavy rainfall, escalating the threat of more mudslides and floods. The weather agency said over 500 millimeters of rain fell on parts of Kyushu in the 24 hours up to 10 a.m. Thursday."

List of current weather warnings in Japan http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/309_table.html

NHK World

"In northern Kyushu where the torrential rain started on Wednesday..."

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/20120716_14.html

Russia Today

"The Japanese Meteorological Agency expects more floods and landslides as severe showers continue to batter the island. Rainfall of up to 4.3 inches (11 cm) an hour was registered on Saturday. Heavy rains have been battering the southern island of Kyushu since Thursday."

http://www.rt.com/news/japan-floods-disaster-evacuation-193/

Comment edited (Quote had no URL) by Craig M (Twitter) on Monday July 16, 2012 at 1:15 PM EDT

Ah, I think I can see what the issue is, your saying the heavy rain was outside the R4 period, I think this where the Devil is in the detail. How can either one of us be sure of when the "big" stuff arrived? Is there a recording of the exact rainfall per hour each day in the location or were the instruments washed away?

Elim, with all respect, we will never know the answer, all I can use is the source report, and they said the last three days, with the recent reconding being the worst.

I looked at the JMA site and nothing there as yet. Preliminary figures for July are up but I couldn't tell when this was up until and I'd presume these will change somewhat as it takes a while to get all the data in and take out any problem recordings (i.e. stations will null/duplicate values etc).

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/en/index.html

Cheers for that Craig, our post crossed over so it looks as if Im in reply to you but im not

http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/Archives/MasterListrev.htm
Japan floods started on the 4th

There was rain falling from 4th July, but the weather feature that actually caused the flooding was active from the 9th - 16th July therefore started well inside Piers NSF (quiet) period.

"The slow moving frontal system was part of an extratropical low. Extratropical lows typically affect southern Japan during fall, winter, and spring but are not common so far south during the summer months. These lows typically have warm and cold fronts anchored to their centers that extend radially outward similar to the the hands of a clock – usually oriented at the three and seven o’ clock positions, respectively. Heavy precipitation typically falls in the vicinity of these fronts. This particular low that formed during the period of July 9-16 had a wider separation of fronts (at the two and eight o’ clock positions) while the whole system moved slowly northeastward. The scenario resulted in the warm and cold fronts being slowly dragged in a parallel direction to Japan. Subsequently, individual rain cells began moving parallel to the fronts across Kyushu and a prolonged period of precipitation began that lasted for several days. "

http://alert.air-worldwide.com/EventSummary.aspx?e=638&tp=54&c=1

Despite that I expect it will remain a 'BRILLIANT CONFIRMATION" :(