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THANKS for post CR,

The BBC-Met0 coverage of the opening ceremony (and beyond) weather has been reminiscent of the East German forecasts "May Day will be glorious".
We will have ongoing comments and Olympic weather warnings (as well as here?) on:
http://bit.ly/MyJXlv

Piers Corbyn

Some models showing thundery weather staying south of London - who knows!

WHO KNOWS? AND....????

ACTUALLY ET EVERYONE KNOWS EXCEPT THE PUBLIC

CAN YOU READ A WEATHER MAP?
Obviously the answer is
Either "NO"
OR
You choose to lie in hope - as your masters instruct!

See: "The BBC-MetO seem to be in denial of their own weather maps.....
See Section 2) of
http://bit.ly/MyJXlv

Thanks, Piers

I know that the rain that you forecast for the 27th was part of an ongoing wet spell (you had England, Wales &Ireland as 'extremely wet' for the past few days - it's been the complete opposite!) that hasn't materialised. The rain that has shown potential to fall during the opening ceremony has been part of a convective (thundery)set up that will probably now affect N France. If you look at the soundings you can see there is still some potential for instability, but this has lessened from what it was.
http://rasp.inn.leedsmet.ac.uk/UK+2/FCST/sounding3.curr.1900lst.d2.png

I note from your weather site that if rain fails to fall on the Opening Ceremony then you will suspect secret cloud seeding. I also note that you are not joking...

ET Ah as expected more deceit. You are so predictable

1) Try reading (not your style I know). No, I don't think the authorities are up to cloud seeding on this. They might have thought about it but it's too dicey and they didn't do it for June 3rd boat pageant as far as is known so why for this? The consequence would be more rain and maybe not where they want.
Could something else be tried? Well there are a lot of ideas out there about weather meddling but all dicey I would say. (Haarp, microwaves etc). I havn't seen any evidence of an inclination to do it for this and if they did there are so many people watching these skies I daresay we would hear.

2) Ditto try reading then withdraw your 'complete opposite' piffle. Bur of course you havn't read the actual full forecast have you? Answer please:
a) Did you read the full forecast or not before commenting?
b) If 'yes' why lie?
c) If 'no' why comment on something you havn't read.

ET, Maybe you've seen a one liner about this period which should have had the word 'later' in it but Excel would not take it, I suppose, I don't know. But why raise that when we are talking about one event? Anyhow you are making a habit of Looking for any one liner summary of bits of our forecasts you can to find to make the forecast look 'wrong' in detail. How clever! Look by their nature summaries will be inaccurate/incomplete. Really if you want to get rid of your reputation of misrepresentation you have to read the whole of what you are claiming to comment on. Can we agree that? If not it's Room 101 for you for a long time.

The actual words of the full B+I forecast for the period 24-28th as issued June 15th (which are inferences drawn from the 'likely possible weather map scenario' in another section of the forecast for 24-28th):-
"Scotland largely dry and bright at times. England,
Wales and Ireland mostly dry for a few days then turn
extremely wet with thunder, massive hail, floods and
damaging tornadic winds especially later. Generally
cool and colder later."
The 'later' means the R4 27-28th [+/- a day ie ~26-27 or ~27-28 or ~28-29. The Olympic event is late on 27th so pretty well included (say 90%) in the R4 in timing whichever way it shifts].
The forecast does NOT mean these extremes everywhere in England & Wales but we did specify a 'high risk...' (not certainty) for the opening ceremony. Overall we said basic scenario 85% confidence.

AS FORECAST England and Wales have been mostly dry for a few days of 24-28th (South England and much of Midlands yes but not dry in much of North England) and the timing of something coming looks very good. (correct to within a day from 42 days ahead).
Note our long range forecast users are aware these are long range forecasts and only a guide for what detail might happen.
To compare like with like (not ET's style) we need to hear what MO said about the matter back in mid-June which I recall was a statement of climate norms. So far in the period 24-28th things have developed generally in line with our forecast in more detail than many would expect. We also said it would be warmer in the S and S/E around 25+26th than elsewhere which is also pretty accurate even though it has additionally been hotter locally than we implied but didn't rule out.

More discussion on: http://bit.ly/MyJXlv

Thanks, Piers C

I'm always disappointed that you have to be so rude to (and about) people.

Anyway, back to the weather.
You're busy tweeting that the Met Office is in denial and 'weather control' could save them, I naturally assumed from this and the information on your website that you thought it was a possibility.

It's funny how I have different information from you about your own weather forecast - did you issue more than one again?

Here's the forecast I have from you:

From Central Scotland southwards including the whole of England & Wales, but not Ireland.
"Showers then becoming extremely wet from the 26th. Thunderfloods, river flooding, damaging hail and strong winds. NE cool, SE less cool relative to norms."

I can safely draw my own conclusions from this!

Finally what's this 'like with like'? The Met Office sensibly don't release long range forecasts for the UK. As you know our weather is notoriously unpredictable and long range forecasts are rarely accurate whoever does them.

Latest NAE output shows any showers clearing London by the start of the ceremony. Nail biting stuff!
http://bit.ly/LSaLuH