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Hi CO2, I hope that you can see that it's much more important to try and correlate these extreme events with solar activity, rather than to try and stretch them to fit a Corbyn forecast? The forecasts for solar activity are misleading because they are often 'out' (for whatever reason) by several days, then you spend your time trying to justify a forecast and a link to it instead of carefully observing and evaluating any links that there might be :)

Hi Elim

Ill give you your due skeptisism on this period, and I openly admit, I could not located any real "freak" weather going on inside the original period put forward (17th-19th).

But as you can see from my notes above, this is another case similar to the one before, Piers had tried to fit it to a lunar phase (New Moon) but it went on a few days longer then expected. That's not to say he had got some but not of of the period correct, the follow through was an R3 so what we had was the China Floods in the extended "New Moon" and not during it!

What I'm suggesting is - don't try and link it to Piers forecast, link it to any solar/lunar observations at the time. We're getting some very extreme weather at the moment,plenty to work with!

Many thanks for that, but I'm looking for high solar activity and freak weather that are on or close to a lunar phase.

If I just looked at high solar activity without the lunar phase then there would be no enhancement going on.

I'm convinced Its the process of the solar/lunar method that results in more "freak" weather.

Whilst I understand your view it has nothing that stands up. The issue for the past few weeks is that we are comming into solar max and as a result the Piers Corbyn forecasts are not as accurate as they can be during more settled period of the solar cycle.

Its pointless to try and state to me "anything goes" so why don't you forget the forecast etc. The method Piers uses needs access to higher computing power at this moment, his under or over extimates are down to resouces rather then Piers getting the forecast wrong

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Monday July 23, 2012 at 9:41 AM EDT

A link hasn't been established yet - it may well be there but it needs more than anecdotal evidence. You shouldn't be trying to establish a link between event and forecast because the forecast is open to errors. Establish a link between event and lunar or solar activity, these are defined, quantifiable events.

The way you want this to read is as if this is a new theory

Piers has been using this approach for many years and what you have in return is a higher percentage of "freak" weather when these periods happen. They are often mistaken as a "freak" event, and therefore have to be from "man made" climate change as there can't be any other explanation

In fact there is NO mystery going on other then from people who refuse to listen to an alternative view.

Let us know how you would approach this in another way, remember that there IS NO FUNDING available for climate research unless it's to do with "man made" climate change.

If funding was available then this link between Solar/Lunar influences would have been proven a long time ago, instead there is an uncertain area that the "mystery" events such as the two recent July floods can't be accounted by anything else other then "man made" climate change.

In this post (article) you've posted a graph of proton flux and linked it to the Beijing floods and another to the Russian floods, neither of which corresponded to the forecast. Keep looking for correlations like that, keep exploring, keep recording. None of that needs funding. But do keep an open mind, all this paranoia around AGW just starts to sound like an excuse not to try and progress.

As I have said before, if there is a issue that exists its using a forecast!

The two events happened with higher then normal amounts of proton flux, if I was to track these events without a solar/lunar influence then the results would show no real percentage change, so its not just the results of higher then normal proton flux events.

Piers uses his forecast with the knowledge that a certain area on the Sun will be active on such and such period and then, from what I have noted, the lunar phase is tied into this.

What you have seen in an extended solar event, and as I have also mentioned, these solar events are less predictable due to being near the solar max.

so, the "extended" solar events and lunar phase are not that easy to show as they would have been in the past few years.

Maybe if the forecast was updated on a weekly basis rather then monthy you may have a smoother result to work with.

Comment edited by Co2sceptic (forum) on Monday July 23, 2012 at 5:16 PM EDT

CR, CO2, I am not going to waste time on the predictable churlish and dishonest remarks of ET who knows everything but can predict nothing, (Nb I thought we had locked him in Room 101), but note:

1. There is nothing better than our R5, R4... periods to predict extreme weather events around the world both in terms of specific forecasted extreme events and other extreme events in regions for which we don't predict detail (and which only count if they are clear extreme compared with normal in the regions concerned.) This is demonstrated by looking at independently collected 'extreme events' around the world (on standard sites) and noting they cluster around our R5, R4, R3 periods.
I suggest CR invite ET to give his own list of specific extreme event predictions for August and bet £500 against the ones we predict (say 5 of them at £100 each)

2. The 19th was NOT when we said extra activity would 'be over' but it ~17-19th was the period of extra activity - ie some on 19th is very likely and less on 20th.

3. The R5 period of 17-19th was excellently marked by events - see report on:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=472&c=5:
=> R5 period 17th-19 July ( main active part of WeatherAction weather period 16-19th) is being excellently confirmed.
UK deluges and MO Yell & Amber warnings ~18th in forecast long range warned area
USA many reports of serious storms and wind damage in the warned area marked on WeatherAction USA forecast map issued June29:- twitter messages + links:-
(18th) Evening's SEVERE weather NY NJ CT RI MA PA MD DC DE WV VA KY TN IN OH IL IA NC WI MN See maps http://www.
http://www.livewxradar.com/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=37 ‪#wx‬ ‪#news‬ ‪#Hail‬
(18th) FANTASTIC PICS of very major hail storm and thunder New York etc
http://gawker.com/5927149/it-hailed-and-now-you-have-to-look-at-this-insane-picture-of-the-storm
(18th) As of 22:32 GMT: there are 30 active severe weather WARNINGS ‪#AL‬‪#KY‬ ‪#MA‬ ‪#MD‬ ‪#MS‬ ‪#NC‬ ‪#NJ‬ ‪#OH‬ ‪#PA‬ ‪#SC‬ ‪#TN‬ ‪#VA‬ ‪#WI‬ ‪#WV‬ http://wickedwx.com/warnings/
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 916 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2012 ...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA...
This lists above of States well covers the WeatherAction marked blob region 'Great Lakes S Of Great Lakes - Lower mid-West' and some extra just South thereof which although not in the highlighted blob area are obviously storm vulnerable becasue of the heat indicated. (see also twitter feed for further reports)

4. There is also a long report - world wide - on the R4 period ~13-14July which again was very well confirmed. One part of note is
=> EUROPE
Tornado VIDEO Poland 14th
http://fb.me/1V05eok0h Sztum S of Gdansk in line with WeatherAction specific tornadic warning 13-15th inc Germany+W Poland nearby.

5. The South Russian (East black sea) super floods of July 7th were a culmination of our R5 3-4th July joined into an R3 5-7th and I appeared on Russia Today TV talking about them.

6. The China Superfloods 21st July were driven by a similar R5-R3 chain and indeed I commented on
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=474&c=5
"This gigantic event which hit in early hours of 21st GMT was probably triggered by our R5 ~17-19th followed by R3 ~20-21st or it may be that effects in China happen a day or so after USA+ West Europe due to jet-stream mechanisms"

The WeatherAction links above also carry loads of reader/forecast user comments of value in a troll-free environment.

Thanks, Piers

It's fortunate Piers that you've devised such a stretchy system that any extreme weather event can be included in it!!!!