The Realists Take on Climate Change
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Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 4:07 PM EDT
Stephen Wilde has been a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1968. The first five articles from Mr Wilde were received with a great deal of interest throughout the Co2 Sceptic community.
In Stephen Wilde’s sixth and exclusive article for ClimateRealists.com (originally co2sceptics.com) he considers that the IPCC have failed to carry out any risk analysis for the potential for global cooling instead of global warming and that a repeat of the Little Ice Age a mere 400 years ago would cause mass starvation worldwide.
The Death Blow to AGW by Stephen Wilde
The influence of the sun has been discounted in the climate models as a contributor to the warming observed between 1975 and 1998. Those who support the theory of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), now known as anthropogenic climate change so that recent cooling can be included in their scenario, always deny that the sun has anything to do with recent global temperature movements.
The reason given is that Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) varied so little over that period that it cannot explain the warming that was observed. I don’t yet accept that TSI tells the whole story because it is ill defined and speculative as regards it’s representation of all the different ways the sun could affect the Earth via the entire available range of physical processes.
Despite the limitations of TSI as an indicator of solar influence I think there are conclusions we can draw from the records we do have. Oddly, I have not seen them discussed properly anywhere else, especially not by AGW enthusiasts.
This above image shows the pattern of TSI from 1611 to 2001.
It is true that, as the alarmists say, since 1961 the average level of TSI has been approximately level if one averages out the peaks and troughs from solar cycles 19 through to 23.
However, those solar cycles show substantially higher levels of TSI than have ever previously occurred in the historical record.
Because of the height of the TSI level one cannot simply ignore it as the IPCC and the modellers have done.
The critical issue is that having achieved such high levels of TSI by 1961 the sun was already producing more heat than was required to maintain a stable Earth temperature. On that basis alone the theory of AGW cannot be sustained and should now die.
Throughout the period 1961 to about 2001, there was a steady cumulative net warming effect from the sun. The fact that the TSI was, on average, level during that period is entirely irrelevant and misleading.
It is hardly likely that such a high level of TSI compared to historical levels is going to have no effect at all on global temperature changes and indeed during most of that period there was an enhanced period of positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation that imparted increasing warmth to the atmosphere. My link below to article 1041 contains details of my view that the sun drives the various oceanic oscillations which in turn drive global temperature variations with all other influences including CO2 being minor and often cancelling themselves out leaving the solar/oceanic driver supreme.
Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 4:33 PM EDT
Neutralizing Radiative Imbalances Within Convecting Atmospheres
From the joannenova.com.au site 3rd October 2015, click the source link at the bottom of this posting to read FULL Article
This article sets out a simple mechanism whereby planetary atmospheres can be rendered thermally stable over time despite huge variations in the atmospheric content of radiatively active molecules such as greenhouse gases, material released by volcanic outbreaks of a vast size, and material vaporized in large asteroid or meteor strikes.
It is established science that convective adjustments can stabilise or neutralise radiative imbalances:
“Radiative equilibrium profile could be unstable; convection restores it to stability (or neutrality)”
Note that the hydrostatic equation depicts the vertical balance of force for a piece of fluid at rest. The balance is between the upward pressure gradient force and downward gravitational force The hydrostatic equation is the vertical component of the momentum equation (Newton’s equation of motion) for the fluid parcel when the forces are in prefect balance and the net acceleration = 0.”
Readers could study that lecture since it explains the concept of hydrostatic balance within atmospheres.
It appears that those climate scientists who apply the radiative gases theory of climate change have overlooked the means by which convection neutralizes radiative imbalances.
Let’s start by looking closely at the tropopause, which is known to undulate upwards above rising air masses and downwards above falling air masses. The height of the tropopause is set by ozone in the stratosphere reacting directly with incoming solar energy so as to create a temperature inversion that blocks further upward convection.
Click the joannenova.com.au link at the bottom of this posting to read FULL Article
Also read the following article by Stephen Wilde at the hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk
Click hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk link for full article http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/erasing-agw-how-convection-responds-to.html
How Convection Responds To Greenhouse Gases So As To Maintain The Hydrostatic Equilibrium Of An Atmosphere
Guest post by Stephen Wilde, who has been a member of the Royal Meteorological Society since 1968.
This article is complementary to Stephen Wilde’s earlier works at:
New Climate Model
and is consistent with the cause of the so called greenhouse effect being atmospheric mass held off a surface within a gravitational field and subjected to insolation.
Convective overturning within any horizontal layer of gases around a planet and held off the surface against the force of gravity revolves around the point where the upward pressure gradient force within the atmosphere achieves hydrostatic balance with the downward force of gravity. At that point kinetic energy (KE or heat) matches potential energy (PE which is not heat) in any molecules present.
It is Earth’s surface temperature enhancement of 33K above the temperature predicted by radiative physics that provides the kinetic energy required at the surface to maintain the upward pressure gradient force. That kinetic energy is locked into constant convective overturning and cannot be radiated to space without the mass of the atmosphere falling to the surface.
Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 4:52 PM EDT
The Warmist conspiracy has reached a critical point, with doubters in the establishment speaking out. One of Sweden's top climatologists now admit global temperatures have barely changed (translated from Swedish): "The Earth appears to have cooling properties that exceeds the previous thought ones, and that computer models are inadequate to try to foretell a chaotic object like the climate, where actual observation is the only way to go"
In March, a scientific study "Orbital forcing of tree-ring data" found that global warming is caused by that big yellow thing in the sky. Earth's orbit varies over the centuries. Changing distance to the sun affects temperature. Furthermore, Russian scientists have determined that the global temperature will cool by 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2030. (Reported in German in Bild.)
The conspirators had banked on panic to help expand government control over the world's economies. But momentum in public opinion has swung against the doomsayers. As an example of the depth of opposition to the Warmists, consider some of the well-informed commenters on American Thinker who have made valuable points of their own commenting on three recent articles.
Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 3:27 PM EDT
Here is part of a great blog from Paul Homewood concerning the Met Office’s Private Briefing Document For The Environment Agency....below is his section on the location of the Jet Stream, regular readers of Piers Corbyn would know the answer to this issue....
Following the wet summer in the UK last year, the Met Office provided the Environment Agency with a briefing document, giving an overview of the weather. This was discussed at the September Board Meeting of the Environment Agency, which Met Office officials attended.
As far as I know, this document, which I obtained through FOI, has never entered the public domain. It is brutally honest in admitting how little the Met’s scientists understand about what affects our climate, and, in particular, what caused the unusual weather last year. This is in stark contrast to many of the hyped up claims, made in public statements in the recent past by, among others, the Met Office themselves.
The full document is reproduced below, but there are four particular areas I wish to focus on.
Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 4:24 PM EDT
This year the cold and snow are extreme. Researchers say it was because of global warming. An uncalled behind which seems to be a logical connection.
At night it is colder than outside. Similar to this dictum, which stands as a symbol of nonsense, sounds like what we hear from some climate scientists these days through the icy winter and especially in March and read: Ironically, a man-made global warming was responsible for the cold of the last few weeks.
The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) over to this thesis, as well as the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The claim may sound contradictory. It hides behind quite a logical relationship, first. But ultimately, it is difficult with the - bring Done between heaven and earth together - unfathomable.
Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 3:14 PM EDT
Paris, France – From Anglicanism to Catholicism, Europe’s history is full of state-based religion. In secular 21st century Europe, the unofficial state religion is the GreenChurch. Environmentalism inspires a devout, pro-Kyoto devotion here quite different than the more skeptical American outlook.
But France’s strident green political and media voices are curiously silent this year. Perhaps it’s the bone-chilling spring.
Parisians used to leafy April vistas shiver past leafless trees on Paris’s beautiful, tree-lined parks. Temperatures are in the mid-40s, well below the 60s-normal. Average temperatures across the continent are, on average, 4-8 degrees below normal with March registering colder average temperatures than January. Snow fell in England, France, and Germany this spring- an unusual occurrence. The cold snap follows the frigid London Olympics last summer and over a decade of flat temperatures worldwide. Hardly the stuff of global warming. But the GreenChurch is firm in its doctrine – and the global warming high priests must be obeyed.
If Christianity was the opiate of the masses in centuries gone by, then global warming is the opiate of the upper middle class.
Tuesday, April 9th 2013, 11:03 AM EDT
Greenwashing Thatcher's history does an injustice both to her and to science and technology policy
We've been running a series of essays on scientific advice recently (e.g. yesterday's piece by Shelia Jasanoff). It's on a break today, but here's something on a related issue.
Margaret Thatcher is often celebrated for her leadership on the issue of climate change. Read, if you haven't already, her 1989 speech to the UN for example. Or the 1988 one to the Royal Society. Or to the 2nd World Climate Conference in 1990. You might be surprised.
The image of Thatcher the global environmental leader jars with some of the patterns of right wing politics we are more familiar with today. Indeed, it suits particular ends of environmentalism to wave this particularly green-tinged blue card around. But Thatcher has long been a flexible cultural image, and in recent years was occasionally used as an icon for climate sceptics too. See, for example, these June 2010 pieces by Lord Monckton writing for the Watts up With That blog and Christopher Booker in the Telegraph.
Wednesday, April 10th 2013, 4:15 PM EDT
A paper published in the journal of the Italian Astronomical Society finds that solar geomagnetic activity was highly correlated to global temperature changes over the period from 1856-2000. The authors “show that the index commonly used for quantifying long-term changes in solar activity, the sunspot number, accounts for only one part of solar activity and using this index leads to the underestimation of the role of solar activity in the global warming in the recent decades. A more suitable index is the geomagnetic activity which reﬂects all solar activity, and it is highly correlated to global temperature variations in the whole period for which we have data.”
Click source to read FULL report
Saturday, June 1st 2013, 4:36 AM EDT
I am happy to report that the landmark of 14,500+ followers has now been reached at the ClimateRealists Twitter Account.
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Friday, April 12th 2013, 8:22 AM EDT
Dear Climate Realists
It is with regret that due to recent changes in my personal life I will not have the time available to update this site until sometime in the future.
I have made provisions to keep the site running so you can read the 10,000+ articles
I hope the name "Climate Realists" remains a prominent irritation to supporters of AGW and that it is used by you wisely
I bid you all farewell and look forward to the day when the supporters of AGW admit their mistake.
There has been NO warming of the Earth due to "Man Made" co2. The warming can be atributed to 50 years of higher then average solar activity on the Sun that started in the 1950's and ended around 2006.
There WILL be more changes to our climate in the future due to our Sun becoming less active. This change is destined to make the Earth cooler, and NOT warmer. The reason AGW supporters have been misinformed about this issue is from political madness and the abuse of science
In short we have seen extended Summers due to an active Sun and now face extended Winters due to a less active Sun....Pass it on!
I Love you all .....please keep up the fight by calling yourself a "Climate Realist", the term "Climate Skeptic" is not correct, as there is nothing to be skeptical about! It's the Sun stupid;)
Note: Stay tuned to the ClimateRealists Twitter account for major news articles/links:)