Articles Tagged "David Hathaway"

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David Hathaway: Latest NASA Solar Cycle 24 Forecast issued 1st April 2013
Friday, April 5th 2013, 6:41 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012) due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

CLICK to see ALL forecasts on Solar Cycle 24 from David Hathaway and NASA made so far, they all point to a very low average Sunspot number and the peak being in the fall of this year, time will tell if this forecast is correct....more to follow
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict
Andrew McKillop: Solar Cycle Warnings
Monday, April 1st 2013, 6:57 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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RECORD LOW SUNSPOT NUMBERS

For reasons including "pure politically correct", NASA has fought a losing battle - against reality - on the subject of Global Warming, which it feels obliged to believe in as a "scientifically correct" theory. Linked to this, quite directly, NASA has also battled against reality on the subject of sunspot frequency, size, location on the Sun's surface and other variables linked to sunspot cycles in this present Cycle 24 of approximately 11-year-long cycles. These have been accurately recorded since Cycle 1 set by convention between astronomers as starting in Feb 1755.

NASA wanted to believe Cycle 24 would be about the same, perhaps bigger in sunspot numbers and intensity, than Cycle 23. This has not happened. Cycle 24 started weak and got much weaker: February 1906 and Fenruary 2013 had one thing in common, they both had extreme low numbers of observable sunspots on "our" local Star. Year 1906 was the year the San Francisco earthquake hit. Other notable events for 1906 included Finland allowing women to vote - the first European country to do it!
Source Link: marketoracle.co.uk
THIS ARTICLE CONTINUES
David Archibald: How long to the 24/25 Solar Minimum?
Wednesday, March 6th 2013, 8:27 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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....there is a parameter which tells us exactly how long Solar Cycle 24 will be. That is the green corona emissions diagram produced by Richard Altrock, manager of the USAF coronal research program at Sacramento Peak, New Mexico. This is that diagram (above) from June 2011

I have annotated it to show the solar cycles over the same period. In his public statement, Altrock noted that Solar Cycle 24 was 40% slower than the average of the previous two cycles. That means that it is going to be 40% longer and that is borne out by the diagram. Solar minimum for the last four minima has occurred when emissions are exhausted at 10°. The latitude of 10° is shown as the red line on the diagram. Further to that, the last two solar cycles show that the month of minimum can be predicted by drawing a line between solar maximum (the point at which the rush to the poles intersects 76°) and the point of exhaustion at 10°. The bulk of activity is bounded by this line. On this line of evidence, Solar Cycle 24 will be 17 years long and the longest solar cycle for 300 years. We have a long wait ahead of us – half a generation.


Click source to read FULL report from David Archibald at WUWT
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
David Hathaway: Latest NASA Solar Cycle 24 Forecast issued 1st March 2013
Wednesday, March 6th 2013, 7:31 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment

The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 66 in the Fall of 2013. The smoothed sunspot number has already reached 67 (in February 2012)due to the strong peak in late 2011 so the official maximum will be at least this high and this late. We are currently over four years into Cycle 24. The current predicted and observed size makes this the smallest sunspot cycle since Cycle 14 which had a maximum of 64.2 in February of 1906.

Predicting the behavior of a sunspot cycle is fairly reliable once the cycle is well underway (about 3 years after the minimum in sunspot number occurs [see Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann Solar Physics; 151, 177 (1994)]). Prior to that time the predictions are less reliable but nonetheless equally as important. Planning for satellite orbits and space missions often require knowledge of solar activity levels years in advance.

CLICK to see ALL forecasts on Solar Cycle 24 from David Hathaway and NASA made so far, they all point to a very low average Sunspot number and the peak being in the fall of this year, time will tell if this forecast is correct....more to follow
Source Link: solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov
Doug L. Hoffman: Sun Ignores Scientists' Predictions
Sunday, March 3rd 2013, 6:10 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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NASA says that something unexpected is happening on the Sun. This year, 2013, is supposed to be the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle—the year of Solar Max. Yet solar activity is well below the expected level. Out somnolent star refuses to behave according to the predictions of Sun watching scientists, leading some observers to wonder if forecasters missed the mark. The botched solar forecast not only has implication for our understanding of the physical processes inside the Sun, it has possible links to future climate change here on Earth. Scientists admit that no one knows for sure what the Sun will do next.

The 11 year solar cycle—the waxing and waning of activity on the Sun—is well known, if not well understood. The solar cycle is the periodic change in the Sun's activity, including changes in levels of solar radiation and the ejection of solar material. Solar cycles have been observed for hundreds of years by earthbound observers noting changes in the sun's appearance. Generations of scientists have kept detailed records of changes in the number of sunspots, flares, and other visible manifestations. Changes in solar activity affects space weather, which can be important when launching satellites. It can also impact conditions here on Earth, adversely affecting communications, radio broadcasts and power grids. For these reasons, forecasting the solar cycle is not just an idle pursuit for Sun gazing scientists.
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
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MUST SEE YOUTUBE: NASA: Solar Max COULD BE Double Peaked
Friday, March 1st 2013, 12:48 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)

Published on 1 Mar 2013

Visit http://science.nasa.gov/] for breaking science news.

Something unexpected is happening on the sun. 2013 is supposed to be the year of Solar Max, but solar activity is much lower than expected. At least one leading forecaster expects the sun to rebound with a double-peaked maximum later this year.
Could a quiet sun cancel global warming? by Jason Samenow, Capital Weather Gang, WashingtonPost.com
Thursday, February 28th 2013, 2:42 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Current solar cycle 24 (the curve on the right) shows fewer sunspot numbers than cycle 23 (on curve on the left) (NASA)

The current solar maximum, the high point in the sun’s activity over an 11-year cycle, is the lowest in over 100 years NASA says. Some scientists speculate solar activity may decline further in the coming decades. Could a quieting sun cause the climate to cool enough to stall or even reverse global warming from the build-up of greenhouse gases? Leading climate scientists say no, the effect of the sun is too small.

Every 11-year solar cycle is different, exhibiting stronger or weaker peaks and valleys. These variations have implications for climate and weather which researchers are trying to better understand. The general thinking is that less sunspot activity imparts a slight cooling effect on the climate but with significant regional differences.
Source Link: washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang
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David Archibald: Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Number compared to the Dalton Minimum
Tuesday, February 26th 2013, 2:33 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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This chart compares the development of Solar Cycle 24 with the Dalton Minimum.

The Solar Cycle 24 is tracking Solar Cycle 5 very closely.


Click source to read FULL report from David Archibald at WUWT
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
Graphical Comparison of recent Solar Cycles shows SC24 is way down the field!
Saturday, February 23rd 2013, 9:21 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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The last time a Solar Cycle looked this bad was in 1906 and that was SC14.

SC14 Started in February 1902 and ended in August 1913, and world temperatures were COOLER then average


Click source for more, also see my forecast from 21st October 2012 Solar Cycle 24...Story so far indicates the world is heading for either a Cool or Cold period, NOT Warm and Hot!
Source Link: solen.info/solar/cyclcomp
Giant sunspot that's SIX TIMES the diameter of Earth has formed in less than 48 hours - and could lead to solar flares
Friday, February 22nd 2013, 9:42 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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A giant sunspot that is at least six times the diameter of Earth has formed on the Sun in less than 48 hours, Nasa has announced.

Sunspots are dark spots on the surface of the Sun which appear as turbulent magnetic fields in its surface rearrange and realign.

The massive sunspot, which formed over the course of Tuesday and Wednesday, quickly evolved into an unstable configuration, and could lead to solar flares, which can interrupt our radio communications.

Nasa scientists spotted the huge sunspot forming through instruments on the agency's Solar Dynamics Observatory, one of several spacecraft that monitor the Sun's weather.

'Over the course of February 19-20, 2013, scientists watched a giant sunspot form in under 48 hours,' said Karen Fox, a spokesman for Nasa.
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech
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