Articles Tagged "2013 Forecast"
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Thursday, March 21st 2013, 11:21 AM EDT
IT MAY surprise you to know as you huddle under your umbrella or your face is lashed by persistent rain or sleet that this time last year former environment secretary Caroline Spelman had just declared parts of the country were in drought. A big one too; predicted to be the worst for 124 years.
Hosepipe bans had been announced which were to affect 22 million people over the southeast and east of England and we were told to expect dried-up riverbeds and depleted reservoirs.
Horticulturists were even suggesting we all consider cacti in our gardens while Spelman appealed to us to be careful every time we turned on the tap.
"We are asking for the help of everyone by urging them to use less water," she declared following a crisis meeting of industry bodies, regulators and conservationists.
Meanwhile a report brought out by the Environment Agency last March warned of dire environmental and agricultural repercussions were the drought to continue.
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express.co.uk
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Monday, January 7th 2013, 4:23 PM EST
The new forecast produced by the UK Met Office for the next five years is a considerable change from forecasts given in the past few years. An excellent comparison between the new and older forecasts can be found here.
It is worth comparing the current forecast with that made just five years ago. In 2007 The Met Office Hadley Centre reported to the UK Government that it had pioneered a new system to predict the climate a decade ahead. It said that the system simulated both the human-driven climate change and the evolution of slow natural variations already locked into the system. “We are now using the system to predict changes out to 2014. By the end of this period, the global average temperature is expected to have risen by around 0.3 °C compared to 2004, and half of the years after 2009 are predicted to be hotter than the current record hot year, 1998.”
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Thursday, January 3rd 2013, 6:32 AM EST
During April 2012 the UK Environment Agency warned of an impending drought to hit 32 million people in the UK and it would last until 2013.
Today in a report from Roger Harrabin at the BBC the Met Office have now made a startling analysis:
"The frequency of extreme rainfall in the UK may be increasing, according to analysis by the Met Office. Statistics show that days of particularly heavy rainfall have become more common since 1960
You have to then ask what data was used in April last year with the Environment Agency/Met Office, did they not also have the same trend or data set from 1960?
Until the Environment Agency/Met Office wake up to the idea that our Sun changes the climate they will never be able to grasp "Cause & Effect" in regard to weather patterns.
Our future is in the hands of fools.
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Thursday, December 27th 2012, 7:18 PM EST
Taking into account the range of uncertainty in the forecast and observations, it is very likely that 2013 will be one of the warmest ten years in the record which goes back to 1850, and it is likely to be warmer than 2012.
The prediction follows provisional figures for the observed temperature in 2012, published by the Met Office and University of East Anglia last month. These showed that global average temperatures in 2012 were 0.45 °C above the long term average based on data from the three international global temperature datasets used by the World Meteorological Organization.
2012 is currently ranked the 9th warmest year on record. The global average temperature for 2012 falls well within the range predicted by the Met Office for 2012 of between 0.34 °C and 0.62 °C, with a most likely value of 0.48 °C above the long term average. This is consistent with the Met Office forecast statement that 2012 was expected to be warmer than 2011, but not as warm as the record year of 2010.
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Thursday, December 27th 2012, 7:13 PM EST
Provisional figures from the Met Office from 1 January to 26 December 2012 show that some parts of the UK have already had their wettest year on record.
New records have been set in England (1095.8 mm), northern England (1253 mm), E and NE England (1042.1 mm), Midlands (1048.2 mm), and East Anglia (788 mm), in a series that goes back to 1910.
A further 46 mm of rain is needed from 27 to 31 December for this to be the wettest year on record for the UK overall – the UK has had 1291.2 mm of rain from 1 January to 26 December. The wettest year on record for the UK is 2000 with 1337.3 mm.
In terms of temperature and sunshine the year as a whole is set to be unremarkable, both being around normal. However, overall 2012 is set to be cooler than 2011, but warmer than 2010.
More about the record breaking year of 2012
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Thursday, October 25th 2012, 8:49 AM EDT
The weather bureau is predicting a big change in Australia's forecast this summer, with an El Nino no longer expected.
Average rainfall is predicted in the coming months in the absence of El Nino - Australia's major weather pattern in the 21st century which brings drought-like conditions.
The chief climate forecaster says it is the biggest turnaround in weather patterns since records began.
"Come September, all of a sudden, the temperature started to cool down, the trade winds started to become a little bit enhanced, and the cloud patterns and other indicators like that headed away from El Nino," the bureau's manager of climate prediction services, Dr Andrew Watkins, said.
"So this is what we're looking at as climatologists, giving us the heads up about what may happen over the next few months, and indeed what we're seeing now is a backing off from those El Nino thresholds."
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Tuesday, October 2nd 2012, 10:25 AM EDT
According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, weak El Niño conditions may develop this fall. How might a full-fledged El Niño event this winter influence weather where you live?
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Monday, September 3rd 2012, 7:46 AM EDT
(Image: Andrzej Krauze)
With an El Niño on the way, 2013 could be the warmest year on record. But the climate-denial machine will keep on churning
IT HAS been another "normal" global-warming summer in the northern hemisphere. The US sweltered in the hottest July on record, following the hottest spring on record. More than 60 per cent of the contiguous US is suffering from drought, as are parts of eastern Europe and India. In the Arctic, sea ice cover is at a record low and the Greenland ice sheet shows what the US National Snow and Ice Data Center calls "extraordinary high melting". Global land temperatures for May and June were the hottest since records began in the 19th century.
Meanwhile, El Niño conditions are forecast to develop in the tropical Pacific Ocean, warming up ocean surface temperatures. Some observers have predicted that this will lead to record-breaking global temperatures next year.
If El Niño does arrive and temperature records are broken, there will inevitably be much discussion of the causes of the warming. So now is a good time to sort signal from noise in the global temperature records.
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