Professor Ross Garnaut, in the introduction to his update of the Science of Climate Change asked two econometricians to examine the temperature record in this and the last century. The temperature trend analysis that Garnaut had asked his distinguished colleagues to perform gave him the answer he wanted. There was a continuing increase. But this methodology is widely disputed. For example in a long editorial comment in the journal Climate Change, Terence Mills, a UK econometrician who has written at length on temperature trend analysis, concludes that "Statistical arguments alone are unlikely to settle issues such as these, but neither are appeals to only physical models or the output of computer simulations of coupled general circulation models….it is a case of you pays your money and you takes your choice".
Garnaut's sole reliance on an econometric analysis to interpret temperature changes indicates a failure to recognise the range of possible interpretations of such changes. These are examined below.
The measurements can be presented in a number of ways from monthly to yearly to 10 year values as used by the IPCC. A comparison of annual and 10 year values in Figure 1 shows that reliance on 10 year values, as used by the IPCC, may obscure details that are important and this is true of the last ten years.