Articles Tagged "Dan Pangburn"

Since 2001 the atmospheric carbon dioxide has increased by 20% of the total increase from 1800 to 2001 while average global temperature (agt) has not increased significantly and in fact the agt for the nine years from 2001 through 2009 shows a decline of 0.5C per century. This is outside of the ‘limits’ asserted by the ‘Consensus’ of the Climate Science Community.

So how did the Consensus get it so wrong?

The scientists in the Consensus apparently don’t understand some of the science very well, stubbornly refuse to acknowledge some science or may not even be aware of some relevant science.

Here are some of the issues:

1. Global Climate Models

Climate Scientists use huge mathematic models that are intended to simulate climate over the entire globe. The mathematic models are very computationally intensive and are run on powerful computers. These so-called Global Climate Models (GCMs) divide the atmosphere into about 100,000 or more contiguous blocks that may also be called elements. For example, the Hadley Center model named HadAM3 is a 73 by 96 grid with 19 levels for a total of 133,152 elements. HadGEM1 has four times as many. The number of elements is limited by the practical consideration of computer run time. The programs necessarily use strategies and algorithms to suppress numerical computational artifacts such as aliasing and computational instability.

INTRODUCTION

The analysis at Reference 1 presents a method and equation that accurately calculates average global temperatures since 1895 without considering any influence from change to the level of carbon dioxide or any other greenhouse gas in the atmosphere.

The coefficient of determination, R2, (R2 is discussed in Ref 2) for that calculation is 0.8686 which means that the equation explains 86.86% of the measured average global temperature (agt) anomalies. This is better than has been achieved by any Global Climate Model. The agt anomaly identified in Ref 1 as a prediction is more correctly called a calculation up to the present and a projection (for the condition of no sunspots) thereafter.

The Ref 2 paper includes a determination of the possible influence that added atmospheric CO2 might have on average global temperature. It is a refinement of the previous work which was presented in Ref 1. The Ref 2 work showed that, although assuming no effect of added atmospheric CO2 produced an excellent correlation with measured agt, when a significant contribution from added atmospheric CO2 is included an excellent correlation is also produced, in fact, a tiny bit better.

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INTRODUCTION

The analysis at Reference 1 presents a method and equation that accurately calculates average global temperatures since 1895 without considering any influence from change to the level of carbon dioxide or any other greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. The coefficient of determination, R2, for that calculation is 0.8686 (all of those digits are as calculated and are shown only to reveal the tiny differences between calculated values.

There is no presumption that real-world precision is this close) which means that the equation explains 86.86% of the measured average global temperature (agt) anomalies.

This is far better than has been achieved by any Global Climate Model. The agt anomaly identified in Ref 1 as a prediction is more correctly called a calculation up to the present and a projection (for the condition of no sunspots) thereafter.

The present paper includes a determination of the contribution that added atmospheric CO2 makes to average global temperature. It is a refinement of the previous work which was presented in Ref 1. The present work produced the rather startling discovery that, although assuming no effect of added atmospheric CO2 produced an excellent correlation with measured agt, when a significant contribution from added atmospheric CO2 is
included, an excellent correlation was also produced, in fact, a tiny bit better.

Click to download "Effect of Change to Atmospheric CO2 Level on Average Global Temperature" by Dan Pangburn

The following article is a follow up from Dan Pangburn to Climate Change Mistake

Conclusions of the Natural Climate Change Verification

This work shows the influence that sunspots have had on 20th century and more recent average global temperatures. Without the influence of sunspots, the trends of anomalies would have been close to the shape of the graph for ESST only.

The precise points to make calculations of the effective influence of the sunspot timeintegral are somewhat uncertain. Temperatures predicted at the end points of the ESST trends result in the following: Sunspots had little effect prior to about 1941. The anomaly predicted for 1941 was 0.1017 and in 1973 was -0.0908 for a decline of 0.1925. Without the sunspot time-integral the decline would have been that of the ESST or 0.45.

Thus the temperature decline from 1941 to 1973 would have been about 0.257 C deeper if not forthe high sunspot-number-time-integral during that period. This is equivalent to saying
that the decline from 1941 to 1973 was (0.45 – 0.1925)/0.45 or 57% less than it would have been without the time-integral of sunspot-number during that period.

Click PDF file to download Corroboration of Natural Climate Change by Dan Pangburn

This is a comprehensive discussion of the science relating to the Global Warming issue and includes a fairly simple model (on page 15) that accurately predicts all average global temperatures since 1895 including the recent decline.

I observed the many conflicting assertions regarding the existence and cause of Global Warming, particularly as to whether it was significantly contributed to by human activity.
This led to substantial curiosity as to the truth. As a result I have conducted research on the issue for thousands of hours for over three years and have determined that the belief that human activity has had a significant influence on global climate is a mistake.

Greenhouse Analogy

This may be how the mistake began. Incorrect conclusions may have been drawn from various observations and discoveries. Some of the discoveries and developments are

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The attached work should interest you. It shows a rather simple procedure to accurately (standard deviation of differences between calculated and measured temperature anomalies = 0.0634 C) calculate the average global temperature history of the entire 20th century and to the present time using only the time-integral of sunspot count and an assumption of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) up trend or down trend duration of 32 years and a PDO temperature range of 0.45 C degrees. It assumes no influence from atmospheric carbon dioxide and corroborates previous work.

Dan Pangburn

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The following description of sunspots was selectively extracted from Wikipedia: “A sunspot is a region on the Sun's surface (photosphere) that is marked by intense magnetic activity, which inhibits convection, forming areas of reduced surface temperature. They can be visible from Earth without the aid of a telescope.

Dear All

These are my latest corroborating findings that added atmospheric carbon dioxide does not significantly influence average global temperature. The first should be generally understood. Familiarity with Control Theory would probably help to recognize the significance of the second.

Dan

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