Will Rogers once quipped that it’s “what we know that ain’t so” that gets us in trouble. This might well apply to global warming, where the “science is settled” side is pushing massive plans in Congress to reduce carbon dioxide.
But the science is not settled. If it were, we would have great confidence in all these statements: 1. The world is getting warmer. 2. That’s more bad than good. 3. Humans are causing the warming. 4. We know how to fix the problem.
If either of the first two statements is wrong, then warming is not a crisis. If either of the last two is not correct, we can’t fix it. What are the chances that all four are true?
To find out, we must multiply the four individual probabilities by each other. If each statement has a 70 percent chance of being correct, the overall probability is just 24 percent that all are true.
Let’s look at these issues:
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