Articles Tagged "Solar Cycle 25"

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IPCC & Met Office forecast 2050 as HOT... how COLD will it be?: Updated
Tuesday, March 19th 2013, 10:27 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment

In October last year I had a play about with a Solar Cycle graph from informthepundits.wordpress.com, and added an overlay to show three solar cycle periods (SC12, 13 & 14), that as far as I know are not given any "minimum" status as the period was not identified as being "COLD". No, I'm not looking for any recognition about this period, and as far as I know neither is Piers Corbyn....but hey don't let that stop anyone from calling it "The Gabriel Near Minimum":)

I have now added another overlay to the original chart and also extended it with three fictitious shaped solar cycles (SC24, 25 & 26). All of these cycles are forecast to be lower then SC 23, and SC 24 is expected to be the highest of the three, be it the lowest one for 100 years! SC 25 WILL be lower then SC 24 as per latest estimate from NASA. SC 26 Is entered as similar level to SC 25 (my guess). This should bring the period up to around 2050, as you can see from above, this WILL BE A COOL/COLD period and NOT HOT as per the Met Office and the IPCC.

See below a rare photo from the winter of 1911, near the end of solar cycle 14, it makes a very good point about the "Gabriel Near Minimum".
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David Archibald: The potential impact of volcanic overprinting of the Eddy Minimum
Tuesday, January 8th 2013, 3:23 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
There were five named solar minima in the last millennium – the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima. At least the last four were all associated with cold climates. The astrophysics community has elected to name the current period of low solar activity the Eddy Minimum. John A. Eddy was an American astronomer who compiled data demonstrating the periods of low solar activity prior to the Dalton Minimum. The Eddy Minimum will include at least Solar Cycles 24 and 25, and could continue until late in the 21st Century.

Benjamin Franklin was the first to suggest that volcanic eruptions might affect climate, in a 1784 communication to the Literary and Philosophical Association of Manchester:

“During several of the summer months of 1783, when the effect of the sun’s rays to heat the earth in these northern regions should have been greatest, there existed a constant fog over all of Europe, and a great part of North America. This fog was of a permanent nature; it was dry, and the rays of the sun seemed to have little effect toward dissipating it, as they easily do to a moist fog, arising from water. They were indeed rendered so faint in passing through it, that when collected in the focus of a burning glass, they would scarce kindle brown paper. Of course, their summer effect in heating the earth was exceedingly diminished.
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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David Hathaway Latest Solar Cycle Update for SC24 IS Making SC 25 Even Worse (updated)
Monday, March 12th 2012, 8:44 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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David Hathaway Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Forecast IS Making Solar Cycle 25 Even Worse! - Link for original article at ClimateRealists.com 10th October 2010

I had this to say in 2010 - For those of you who follow David Hathaway's Solar Cycle forecasts, it is not looking good for Solar Cycle 25. Solar Cycle 25 is due to start about the end of 2020, nothing dramatic about that, apart from it WILL be lower in its Sunspot count then Solar Cycle 24, and boy oh boy how the numbers are starting to fall!

I have kept track of the Solar Cycle 24 forecasts from David Hathaway, and the latest prediction compared from two years or so ago has taken yet another fall...This is what David Hathaway has to say from the recent March 2012 Solar Cycle Prediction Update
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Reply to article: Met Office call out David Rose: Updated by David Whitehouse
Tuesday, January 31st 2012, 6:16 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentToday the Mail on Sunday published a story written by David Rose entitled Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about

This article includes numerous errors in the reporting of published peer reviewed science undertaken by the Met Office Hadley Centre and for Mr. Rose to suggest that the latest global temperatures available show no warming in the last 15 years is entirely misleading.

Despite the Met Office having spoken to David Rose ahead of the publication of the story, he has chosen to not fully include the answers we gave him to questions around decadal projections produced by the Met Office or his belief that we have seen no warming since 1997.

For clarity I have included our full response to David Rose below:A spokesman for the Met Office said: “The ten year projection remains groundbreaking science. The complete period for the original projection is not over yet and these projections are regularly updated to take account of the most recent data.

“The projections are probabilistic in nature, and no individual forecast should be taken in isolation. Instead, several decades of data will be needed to assess the robustness of the projections.

“However, what is absolutely clear is that we have continued to see a trend of warming, with the decade of 2000-2009 being clearly the warmest in the instrumental record going back to 1850. Depending on which temperature records you use, 2010 was the warmest year on record for NOAA NCDC and NASA GISS, and the second warmest on record in HadCRUT3.”
Source Link: metofficenews.wordpress.com
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Chriss W. Street: Science Continues to Cast Doubt on Global Warming
Monday, January 30th 2012, 11:56 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Four months ago, when I published the article “Nature Journal Discredits Global Warming” at Big Government stating that the Nature Journal of Science, ranked as the world’s most cited scientific periodical, had published the “definitive study” rebuking Anthropogenic (man-made) Global Warming, the internet exploded. The article generated 286 Big Government comments, 2642 Facebook recommendations, and Google currently lists 5,230,000 search results.

Conservatives gushed with praise. But liberals, including the New York Times, threated to ruin me as a fraud for doubting the “proven science of man-made global warming”. Now, temperature data from 30,000 world-wide measuring stations analyzed by the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit confirm that the rising temperature trend in world temperatures ended in 1997 and the world may be facing a mini-ice-age.

Leading climate scientists told The Daily Mail of London over the week-end that after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food. Analysis by experts at NASA and the University of Arizona – derived from magnetic-field measurements 120,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface – suggest that Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak. These sun spots are generated from a massive circulating current of fire (hot plasma) within the Sun, referred to as the Great Conveyor Belt. It has two branches, north and south, each taking about 40 years to perform one complete circuit.
Source Link: biggovernment.com/cstreet
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James Delingpole: Children just aren't going to know what sun is
Sunday, January 29th 2012, 11:34 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentThere's a great piece by David Rose in the Mail On Sunday nicely summing up what a lot of us here knew already: that the thing we really need to fear right now is not global warming but global cooling. And that, on current evidence, it's global cooling we're going to get.

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.


Rose's piece comes hot on the heels of an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal signed by 16 distinguished scientists (proper ones: not "climate" "scientists") noting the continuing absence of ManBearPig:

Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now. This is known to the warming establishment, as one can see from the 2009 "Climategate" email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: "The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't." But the warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2.
Source Link: blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole
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David Rose: Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again): Updated by Piers Corbyn
Saturday, January 28th 2012, 7:24 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years

The supposed ‘consensus’ on man-made global warming is facing an inconvenient challenge after the release of new temperature data showing the planet has not warmed for the past 15 years.

The figures suggest that we could even be heading for a mini ice age to rival the 70-year temperature drop that saw frost fairs held on the Thames in the 17th Century.

Based on readings from more than 30,000 measuring stations, the data was issued last week without fanfare by the Met Office and the University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit. It confirms that the rising trend in world temperatures ended in 1997.

Meanwhile, leading climate scientists yesterday told The Mail on Sunday that, after emitting unusually high levels of energy throughout the 20th Century, the sun is now heading towards a ‘grand minimum’ in its output, threatening cold summers, bitter winters and a shortening of the season available for growing food.

Solar output goes through 11-year cycles, with high numbers of sunspots seen at their peak.


Updated below with MUST READ comments by Piers Corbyn
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech
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David Archibald: Solar Based Climate Forecast to 2050
Wednesday, July 13th 2011, 6:08 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
When I started out in climate science in 2005, the climate people ignored the solar physics community. A casual perusal of the literature though indicated that the difference in climate outcome from Dikpati’s (NASA) estimate for Solar Cycle 24 amplitude of 190 and Clilverd’s (British Antarctic Survey) estimate of 42 amounted to 2.0°C for the mid-latitudes.

Since then, the prognostications of astute scientists with respect to Solar Cycle 24 amplitude have come to pass. Some commentators though are over-reaching and predicting a recurrence of the Maunder Minimum. We now have the tools to predict climate out to the mid-21st Century with a fair degree of confidence, and a repeat of the Maunder Minimum is unlikely. A de Vries Cycle repeat of the Dalton Minimum is what is in prospect up to the early 2030s and then a return to normal conditions of solar activity, and normal climate.

The three tools we have to predict climate on a multi-decadal basis are the solar cycle length – temperature relationship, the logarithmic heating effect of carbon dioxide and Ed Fix’s solar cycle prediction. Let’s start with the solar cycle length – temperature relationship, first proposed by Friis-Christensen and Lassen in 1991. This is the relationship for Hanover, New Hampshire:
Source Link: wattsupwiththat.com
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ABN AMRO Agricommodities Monthly: Investment Research by VM Group June 2011
Monday, July 11th 2011, 3:17 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
European banking crisis makes gold more appealing by the day by Robin Bromby: The Australian.....On the subject of climate change, forget coal burning -- check on the sun. In the latest Agricommodities Monthly from ABN Amro, it is pointed out that the present sunspot cycle is the least active since 1823. In previous episodes of diminished solar activity, the world cooled significantly, the most remarkable of which was what became known as "the little ice age" between 1645 and 1715. The Baltic Sea froze in winter (you could drive a sledge from Poland to Sweden), European farms at higher altitudes could no longer grow wheat, and European fishing fleets were laid up as the cod disappeared south to warmer waters.

If ABN Amro's fears are proved right, and agriculture yields drop in the cooler countries, then the warmer regions of the world will need to carry the food burden. Therefore, they will need lots more fertiliser.
..

ABN AMRO Agricommodities Monthly: Investment Research by VM Group June 2011

This monthly report is intended to inform, educate and stimulate debate for the bank and its customers. This month we focus on the global sugar market.

On a quarterly rolling basis we provide in-depth analysis of three important agricommodities – cocoa, coffee and sugar.

Feature: in the shade

The sun is going into hibernation; solar activity is about the slow down; a mini-ice age will soon be upon us. The middle of June saw a slew of popular science magazines and journals come out with a variety of attention-grabbing stories, many of which carried banner headlines along the lines of “What’s Wrong With The Sun?” Given that some parts of Europe are stuck in drought, the short answer from farmers might be – there’s too much of it. But sorting the wheat from the chaff eveals some moderately disturbing longer-term possibilities for the Earth’s general climate – which if they come to pass, could have significant negative long-term implications for crop productivity.
Source Link: virtualmetals.co.uk [download PDF for FULL report]
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Christopher Booker: Global warming? A new ice age? The only certainty is that YOU'RE paying for the hysteria of our politicians
Wednesday, July 6th 2011, 5:26 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Who would possibly have thought it? The latest news is that the world may be threatened by a sharp drop in temperatures, possibly so severe that it could herald a new mini ice age.

And one reason being put forward for this is that all the pollution being chucked out by thousands of coal-fired power stations may be blocking the sun's heat from the Earth.

Dr Robert Kaufman of Boston University blamed China this week. 'During the Chinese economic expansion there was a huge increase in sulphur emissions,' he said. And this was the cause of global cooling.

But hang on a moment. Aren't these new climate scaremongers the very same people who only a few years back were telling us that the planet was in danger of being fried to a crisp by runaway global warming?

And wasn't it on their say so that the world's politicians, led by our own here in Britain, were committing us to spending hundreds of billions of pounds to save the planet from the catastrophic warming caused by those same evil power stations?
The question this extraordinary turn of events raises is whether any of these supposed experts actually have the faintest idea what they are talking about.

But perhaps the most bizarre thing about this latest twist in the ongoing climate scare story is the way it takes us precisely back to where it all started 40 years ago.

All of us today have become so accustomed to the notion of global warming that it is hard to believe that in the Seventies, U.S. scientists began to warn us the world was heading for a cooling so severe it might even herald a new ice age.
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk
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