Articles Tagged "Stephen Wilde"

Climate scientist Roger Pielke, Sr has noted that land surface temperature records (which comprise the vast majority of temperature records prior to the satellite era (1979-)) are unreliable due to land use changes and urban heat island effects, and that we should therefore look to ocean heat content changes as the most reliable metric for assessing global heating and cooling. The oceans cover 71% of the global surface area and hold at least 1000 times more heat than the atmosphere. Many have claimed that the 'missing heat' from 'anthropogenic global warming' has gone into the oceans, even though the heat seems to be 'missing' from the oceans as well. Recent data from the ARGO network of ~3200 floating robot sensors has shown that since full deployment of the system in ~2003, the ocean heat content has declined despite steadily rising 'greenhouse' CO2 levels:

From Loehle 2009: Cooling of the global ocean since 2003

How could this be? Here are the physical reasons why increasing concentrations of 'greenhouse gases' would not be expected to increase ocean heat content.

Click source to read FULL report from the HockeySchtick

The UK Met Office have just issued a Severe Weather Warning

Flash warnings of severe or extreme weather

These are issued when the Met Office has 80% or greater confidence that severe weather is expected in the next few hours. If warnings have been issued, click on the region affected to see more detail.

Region affected Warning type Valid from Valid to

Strathclyde Heavy Rain 1600 Sat 10 0500: Sun 11 Heavy Rain 1715 Sat 10 0500 Sun 11
Central, Tayside & Fife Heavy Rain 1715 Sat 10 0500 Sun 11
SW Scotland, Lothian & Borders Heavy Rain 1600 Sat 10 0500 Sun 11
Northern Ireland Heavy Rain 1500 Sat 10 2359 Sat 10

Piers Corbyn will be pleased with this report as it fits inside the time frame he put forward WEEKS ago, however the UK Met Office have only just issued the warning to the public.

CLICK to see more weather reports on this Solar Climate Change period

The problem with existing climate models:

Even those who aver that man’s activity affects climate on a global scale rather than just locally or regionally appear to accept that the existing climate models are incomplete. It is a given that the existing models do not fully incorporate data or mechanisms involving cloudiness or global albedo (reflectivity) variations or variations in the speed of the hydrological cycle and that the variability in the temperatures of the ocean surfaces and the overall ocean energy content are barely understood and wholly inadequately quantified in the infant attempts at coupled ocean/atmosphere models. Furthermore the effect of variability in solar activity on climate is barely understood and similarly unquantified.

As they stand at present the models assume a generally static global energy budget with relatively little internal system variability so that measurable changes in the various input and output components can only occur from external forcing agents such as changes in the CO2 content of the air caused by human emissions or perhaps temporary after effects from volcanic eruptions, meteorite strikes or significant changes in solar power output.

If such simple models are to have any practical utility it is necessary to demonstrate that some predictive skill is a demonstrable outcome of the models. Unfortunately it is apparent that there is no predictive skill whatever despite huge advances in processing power and the application of millions or even billions of man hours from reputable and experienced scientists over many decades.

CLICK to download PDF file and read the latest article by Stephen Wilde

Here I sit on March 8th 2010, looking out of my window with a bright sun, frost on the grass in the shade all day, no daffodils anywhere near flowering and the snowdrops (normally flowering by late January) the only sign of recovery from a four month cessation of all biosphere activity in my garden in a relatively mild, coastal, rain shadow affected, south facing portion of the UK.

Not quite what were led to expect from all those politically motivated, wild extrapolations from the run of increasingly early springs and nice warm summers and inoffensive winters which we in the UK did undoubtedly observe from the late 1970’s to around 2000.

What happened to all that potentially catastrophic warming that was supposed to be a consequence of my (and your) energy profligacy in enjoying the ability to move around freely and quickly, heat our homes adequately in cold weather, entertain and educate ourselves with the TV, reduce death and disease worldwide to an incredible extent, gain instant access to huge reserves of information about anything and everything and communicate with each to an extent previously unheard of in history via computer and internet?

Click PDF file to download latest essay from Stephen Wilde

The following extract COULD run into trouble for the MET OFFICE, they are quoted as saying that they can predict weather months in advance, and yet they DID NOT MENTION THIS FORECAST LAST WEEK!!!

Unlike the earlier part of winter, though, this next freeze was forecast by the Met Office months ago, thanks to an extraordinary chain reaction in the atmosphere across the globe.

The story begins with El Niño, the big warming of tropical seas under way in the Pacific. So much hot air soared up from the Pacific it punched through into the stratosphere and dislocated winds 20-50km high.

On January 20 this colossal jolt sent unusually warm air flooding into the stratosphere over the Arctic, where temperatures in the stratosphere soared by 40C in just a few days. The intensely cold stratosphere air normally over the Arctic was shunted over Europe instead. Eventually that cold stratosphere rippled down into the lower atmosphere, flipping our winds from west to east — and easterly winds in winter usually give us our coldest weather.

Updated below in comments section by Piers Corbyn & Stephen Wilde

Click source to read more

Image from NASA

The current cold spell affecting most of the northern hemisphere is causing quite a stir with widespread scientific and media attention and confusion.

The proponents of human caused climate change seem to be in a panic and most sceptics carry a smirk.

However it all fits in very nicely with the forecast that I issued last August concerning the coming winter. The full prediction (Winter2009/2010 for UK) can be found in my section of the climaterealists.com forum.

Click PDF download to read the latest article by Stephen Wilde

Introduction:

I have been considering how real world processes would have to work given that we observe a cooler stratosphere when we observe a warming troposphere.

That observation has been used by some to try and support anthropogenic global warming (AGW) fears even though we know so little about the upper layers of the atmosphere that nothing can be determined for certain about it’s detailed mechanics at present. That field of endeavour, and climatology in general, is rife with speculation that reaches our media almost daily, presented as fact rather than supposition.

Greenhouse Gases Can Cause Cooling !

I thought that would attract attention. It’s the opposite of the general opinion so how can it be so?

The answer lies in the differing responses to greenhouse gases that can be observed over land and over sea. There is no reason why that could not have been realised 30 years ago.

Should the current consensus really be one of Man Made Global Cooling?

I propose something slighty different and perhaps I can explain it this way:

1) The Earth system is not a single unit. If we ignore land as relatively insignificant we are left with oceans and air. I propose that both ocean and air process solar energy at different speeds and moreover they process it independently save that the oceans drive the whole system and the air has to adjust to what the oceans do.

2) Furthermore the processing of solar energy by both oceans and air is variable. That is the critical issue in creating a variable climate over time. If it were not so then climate would be very much more stable than it is with a virtually fixed latitudinal position for the air circulation systems and climate variation being limited only to a basic level of chaotic variability.

3) The oceans appear to vary substantially over several time scales as regards the rate at which they release energy to the air. The evidence for that is the ENSO cycle, the observed 30 year phase shifts and I suspect a further cycle of 500 years or so.

4) The evidence that those variations go beyond a basic level of chaotic variability is those cyclical latitudinal shifts in the air circulation systems which always follow changes in SSTs on at least the 3 time scales we have evidence for.

Extra CO2 in the air from human sources is supposed to put us on a route to catastrophe but the message is a bit garbled.

Some say the extra CO2 heats the air and that is enough to do the trick. Others accept (correctly) that that is unlikely due to the thermal inertia of our oceans and their cooling effect on the air so they propose an ‘ocean skin’ theory whereby warming of the topmost molecules on the ocean surface from extra downwelling infra red radiation from extra human CO2 in the air is supposed to reduce the natural energy flow from sea to air so that the oceans get warmer and then heat the air and kill us off that way.

The term ‘ocean skin’ is rather a misnomer because in reality the area of interaction between air and water is a haze of mixed water and air molecules in constant dynamic interaction.

Interestingly, and importantly, the power of downwelling infra red radiation is insufficient to get past the region involved in evaporation. In that respect it is unlike soar radiation which penetrates the ocean to hundreds of metres depending on wavelength.