Articles Tagged "2010 Forecast"

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Steven Goddard: Shhhh! Met Office Scientists At Work
Saturday, September 29th 2012, 9:23 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentGlobal warming set to continue – Met Office

Global warming continues to pose a real threat that should not be ignored – a claim reinforced in a new study by scientists, reported in a supplement of the August issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This is despite very small global temperature rises over the last 10 years.

the Met Office’s decadal forecast predicts renewed warming after 2010 with about half of the years to 2015 likely to be warmer globally than the current warmest year on record.


Steve Goddard: So far, the Met Office has been wrong on 93% of the days since 2011, with only 20 days warmer than the same day in 2010, and 635 days cooler than 2010.
Source Link: stevengoddard.wordpress.com
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Climate skeptics unpersuaded by extra-warm 2010: Reuters
Wednesday, February 9th 2011, 8:44 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
(Reuters) - Remember 2010? U.S. and international scientists reckon it tied for the warmest year on record, supporting findings of unequivocal global climate change. Climate skeptics remain unconvinced.

Those who study the climate skeptic position say this raises echoes of scientific controversies of the past, including the debate over the health hazards of tobacco.

In Washington, the most vocal denier of human-caused climate change is U.S. Senator James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican who has repeatedly dismissed the idea as a hoax.

"Actually, right now we're in the third year of a cooling period," Inhofe said in December, before the January release of statistics from the U.S. National Climate Data Center, NASA and the World Meteorological Organization showing 2010 tied for the hottest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880.
Source Link: reuters.com
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David Whitehouse: The Temperature of 2010
Friday, February 4th 2011, 3:52 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Now that the relevant data for the temperature of the Earth’s surface for the past year are available, it is instructive to examine the claims made by some that it was the hottest year ever, and claims made by others that it was in second place.

One way of looking at the year’s data we have used before is to see how the individual months fare. This is only one way of interpreting the data, there are others, but this way will show if any record temperature is a result of a general yearlong rise or just a few exceptional months.

These five temperature databases I examine give the monthly temperature to thousandths of a degree which is superfluous. When rounded up to a more physically sensible 0.1 deg almost all of the differences between the years of the past decade go away, but that is another story, and not the subject of this post.

2010 was an El Nino year. Before I examine the monthly temperature for the year I thought it would be instructive to see what an El Nino year looks like. In this case the strongest El Nino on record.

CLICK to read FULL report by David Whitehouse from TheGWPF.org
Christopher Booker: Is Met Office again playing games with its weather data?
Saturday, January 29th 2011, 3:18 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Dr Benny Peiser and Dr David Whitehouse, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), have written to John Hirst, chief executive of the beleaguered Met Office, asking for an explanation of a press release issued by his organisation on January 20 and headed “2010 – a near record year”. This won headlines by claiming that last year was hotter than any other in the past decade.

When the two men examined the original data from which this claim was derived – compiled by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and the Met Office’s Hadley Centre – it clearly showed 2010 as having been cooler than 2005 (and 1998) and equal to 2003. It emerged that, for the purposes of the press release, the data had been significantly adjusted.

Comparing the actual data for each year, from 2001 to 2010, with that given in the press release shows that for four years the original figure has been adjusted downwards. Only for 2010 was the data revised upwards, by the largest adjustment of all, allowing the Met Office to claim that 2010 was the hottest year of the decade.

I asked the Met Office to comment on what seems like yet another embarrassing example of juggling with the figures. It denied the charge and I shall report on its lengthily evasive reply, once the GWPF has had a more considered response from Mr Hirst.
Source Link: telegraph.co.uk
2010 was coldest year since 1986 says Met Office by Louise Gray
Friday, January 21st 2011, 6:57 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Last year was the coldest in Britain since 1986, according to the Met Office, although the rest of the world experienced one of the hottest years on record.

Last year was the coldest in Britain since 1986, according to the Met Office, although the rest of the world experienced one of the hottest years on record.

The new statistics show that the mean temperature in 2010 was 7.96C (46.4F), the twelfth coldest on record. The coldest year in the 100 year record is 1919 and 1963, when temperatures plunged to 7.45 (45.4F) and the next coldest is 1986 when it was 7.69C (45.8F).

However the rest of the world was warmer than ever. The Met Office said that as a whole the world was 0.50 (0.9F) hotter than the long term average of 14C (57.2F), making it the second hottest on record after 1998. The US National Weather Service NOAA and Nasa, that collect their data in slightly different ways, both think 2010 is one of the hottest years on record.
Source Link: telegraph.co.uk
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Reply to article: Lord Monckton: "2010 was the Warmest Year on Record"
Sunday, January 9th 2011, 10:03 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentMichael Steketee, writing in The Australian in January 2011, echoed the BBC (whose journalists’ pension fund is heavily weighted towards “green” “investments”) and other climate-extremist vested interests in claiming that 2010 was the warmest year on record worldwide. Mr. Steketee’s short article makes two dozen questionable assertions, which either require heavy qualification or are downright false. His assertions will be printed in bold face: the truth will appear in Roman face.

1. BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA TO NOVEMBER 30, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND AUSTRALIA WERE THE WARMEST ON RECORD LAST YEAR, AS WERE THOSE FOR THE PAST DECADE.

The record only began ten decades ago. As for sea temperatures, they are less significant for analyzing “global warming” than estimated total ocean heat content. A recent paper by Professors David Douglass and Robert Knox of Rochester University, New York, has established that – contrary to various climate-extremist assertions – there has been no net accumulation of “missing energy” in the form of heat in the oceans worldwide in the six years since ocean heat content was first reliably measured by the 3000 automated ARGO bathythermographs in 2003. This finding implies that the amount of warming we can expect from even quite a large increase in CO2 concentration is far less than the IPCC and other climate-extremist groups maintain.

CLICK to download PDF file to read FULL reply to Michael Steketee's article in The Australian from Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Source Link: scienceandpublicpolicy.org
2010..The Ice Age by Ben Jackson, The Sun
Friday, January 7th 2011, 6:26 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
Click source to read FULL report from Ben Jackson, The Sun
Source Link: thesun.co.uk
Leon Clifford: Global warming may be less than IPCC predicts
Friday, December 31st 2010, 1:07 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image Attachment
Diverging predictions of temperature rise from the IPCC and from Akisofu's hypothesis of continuing natural recovery from the Little Ice Age with multi-decadal oscillations superposed. (Picture credit: Natural Science).

Global warming during the twenty first century may be significantly less than that forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to a new paper.

Physicist and Arctic research expert Syun-Ichi Akasofu of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks in the US predicts that the temperature in 2100 will be 0.5C ± 0.2C higher than today, rather than the 4.0C± 2.0C predicted by the IPCC.

Akasofu is an acknowledged climate change sceptic – although he prefers the term critic - and his prediction is based on an attempt to separate out the effects of naturally-driven warming from man-made greenhouse warming. Akasofu states that the warming trend recorded during the nineteenth and twentieth century may be a combination of a natural recovery from the so called Little Ice Age mixed in with greenhouse warming.

Click source to read FULL report from Leon Clifford
Source Link: reportingclimatescience.com
Don Easterbrook: 2010 - where does it fit in the warmest year list?
Tuesday, December 28th 2010, 3:00 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
article image
1934 has long been considered the warmest year of the past century. A decade ago, the closest challenger appeared to be 1998, a super-el nino year, but it trailed 1934 by 0.54C (0.97F). Since then, NASA GISS has “adjusted” the U.S. data for 1934 downward and 1998 upward (see December 25, 2010 post by Ira Glickstein) in an attempt to make 1998 warmer than 1934 and seemingly erased the original rather large lead of 1934 over 1998.

The last phases of the strong 2009-2010 El Nino in early 2010 made this year another possible contender for the warmest year of the century. However, December 2010 has been one of the coldest Decembers in a century in many parts of the world, so 2010 probably won’t be warmer than 1998. But does it really matter?

Regardless of which year wins the temperature adjustment battle, how significant will that be? To answer that question, we need to look at a much longer time frame-centuries and millennia.

One of the best ways to look at long-term temperatures is with isotope data from the GISP2 Greenland ice core, from which temperatures for thousands of years can be determined. The ice core isotope data were obtained by Minze Stuiver and Peter Grootes from nuclear accelerator measurements of thousands of oxygen isotope ratios (16O/18O), which are a measure of paleo-temperatures at the time snow fell that was later converted to glacial ice. The age of such temperatures can be accurately measured from annual layers of accumulation of rock debris marking each summer's melting of ice and concentration of rock debris on the glacier.

CLICK to download PDF file from IceCap.us and read FULL report from Dr. Don Easterbrook
Reply to letter: Decline in monitoring sites doesn't skew data by Julian Brimelow, Meteorologist
Monday, December 20th 2010, 3:01 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Take time out to read the following letters from Canada, as they debate the impact of less weather surface stations, mentioned here, Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception?, last week

Re: " 'lIllogical approach' fills void left by climate authorities," by George Witt, Letters, Dec. 14.

In this letter, George Witt made several misleading and incorrect allegations concerning the reliability of the global temperature record, as well as the credibility of groups who produce them. I do share Witt's concern about the rapid decline of monitoring sites used to generate these global analyses, especially given that the Canadian Arctic is among the fastest warming regions of the world.

And it is a mystery why so few of the available Canadian stations make it into the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) database used by NASA. Regardless, the Clear Climate Code team (Nick Barnes) has demonstrated that the exclusion of monitoring sites from Canada has virtually no impact on temperature trends for regions of the globe north of 64 N. Their analysis showed that region is warming at over 5 C per century (30-year trend), compared to the long-term global warming trend near 2 C per century.

Witt refers to a recent study which suggests that inappropriate station location makes U.S. temperature trends unreliable. However, a peer-reviewed paper (Menne et al. 2010) has shown that the temperature trend over the U.S. derived using all data is almost identical to the trend derived using a subset of data with ideally located stations. In fact, including the "problem" sites produces a lower rate of warming.
Source Link: edmontonjournal.com
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