Articles Tagged "Mike Lockwood"

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Paul Hudson: Weakest solar cycle in 100yrs could intensify drought (UK)
Tuesday, May 8th 2012, 6:56 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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News from NASA this week that on-going weak solar activity will continue, leading to the weakest solar cycle in around 100 years, could have important implications for the UK's weather.

Research over the last few years has pointed to a link between low solar activity, and incidences of 'blocking' weather patterns.

In three out of the last four winters, the jet stream has been much weaker than normal, leaving us more exposed to colder air from the north and the east, as 'blocking' areas of high pressure become established.

In these situations, winters are not just colder than average but drier, too.

It's these weather patterns that have led the government to warn of the risk of stand-pipes in the streets next summer should winter again be dry in southern and eastern areas.
Source Link: bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson
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An open question to Prof Mike Lockwood about the 2011/12 Winter in the UK
Sunday, November 13th 2011, 8:47 AM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Way back in July this year in an article from the BBC, Prof Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at the University of Reading, pointed out that a correlation existed between low solar activity and harsh winters, and that the last few cold winters in the UK were in fact a result of this effect.

However a recent article in the K7RA Solar Update, indicates that there is now a return to an increase in sunspot activity, the question for Mike Lockwood is this:

Will there be another harsh winter in the UK or will he now state as a result of his theory, that due to increased solar activity, it will in fact be a relativity mild winter?

Extract from the BBC article:

Britain is set to face an increase in harsh winters, with up to one-in-seven gripping the UK with prolonged sub-zero temperatures, a study has suggested.

The projection was based on research that identified how low solar activity affected winter weather patterns.
UK faces more harsh winters in solar activity dip by Mark Kinver, BBC News: Updated by Lewis Page
Wednesday, July 6th 2011, 3:37 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Click source to read FULL report from Mark Kinver, BBC News

Updated below by Lewis Page
Source Link: bbc.co.uk
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Is Britain about to be plunged into a Little Ice Age?
Monday, July 4th 2011, 8:58 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Scientists think Britain and Europe could be in for a chilly few years predicting a 'Little Ice Age' could be on its way in just a few decades time.

Average temperatures in Britain could fall by two degrees centigrade, according to the study led by Mike Lockwood, professor of space environment physics at Reading University, because of a drop in the amount of sunspot activity.

Sunspots are darker patches seen in the sun's surface which are caused by small areas of magnetic activity which disrupts the normal flow of intensely heated gases.
Source Link: dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech
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Mike Lockwood: MUST SEE: Coldest night in Britain ITV News
Thursday, January 6th 2011, 3:35 PM EST
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
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Look what was said on ITV News on the 20th December...The following report was sent in to us.

I believe a major milestone has been passed without comment by any blog.

The ITV evening news in the UK on Monday December 20 2010 said, “weather experts are blaming a long term change in weather patterns for the current spell of intense cold”. You might expect them to somehow blame AGW.

But instead they blamed the sun. A meteorologist Professor Mike Lockwood said, “there is every indication that the sun is declining in its activity… quite rapidly and so we probably should expect a larger fraction of winters to be colder.” The quote is at 01:53 / 02:28 CLICK to see Video Link form ITV News

This is surely the first time this kind of statement (linking climate to solar activity) has been made on the news but it seems to have gone completely unnoticed. If you agree that this is significant please draw attention to it.

Cheers
MUST READ: Some Weather Extremes are Real, but Causes are Natural by Joseph D’Aleo
Sunday, October 3rd 2010, 9:12 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Image AttachmentWe have had some extreme conditions the last few years – of cold, heat, snow and rain. Detailed summaries on the cold last winter can be found here and on the hot summer here. Both were memorable seasons indeed. Though the second author did an excellent job detailing the summer records and did mention the amplified and frozen jet stream, he went on to say man made global warming contributed to it.

Whereas the media and alarmists like to portray extremes (Holdren has called it “Climate Disruption”) as the result of or greatly amplified by man made greenhouse gases, natural factors can be shown as the cause. Too many scientists and media ‘enviro’ bloggers have stated “it must be man-made – what else could it be?”

THE ROLE OF THE SUN

The sun is the major driver for climate. The variations in the sun including irradiance, ultraviolet warming through ozone chemistry, galactic cosmic ray diffusion through the solar wind cause variations in the earths atmospheric and surface temperatures, changes in the jet stream and affect the tendency for blocking events. The sun is a factor probably through its effect on blocking also in how persistent patterns are which leads to anomalies to build for the seasons. The actual anomalies vary year to year with other factors such as ENSO and the state of the ocean multidecadal cycles – PDO and AMO.

As New Scientist magazine recently reported “Mike Lockwood at the University of Reading, and Joanna Haigh of Imperial College London have found that although the sun’s brightness does not change much during solar maxima and minima, the type of radiation it emits does. During maxima the sun emits more ultraviolet radiation, which is absorbed by the stratosphere. This warms up, generating high-altitude winds…a stronger jet stream. The reverse is true in solar minima, and the effect is particularly evident in Europe, where minima increase the chances of extreme weather. Indeed, this year’s cold winter and the Russian heat wave in July have been linked to the sun’s current lull, which froze weather systems in place for longer than normal.”

CLICK to download PDF file and read FULL report from Joseph D’Aleo
Source Link: scienceandpublicpolicy.org
Climate change lecture by Dick Ahlstrom, Irish Times
Friday, September 10th 2010, 8:21 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
WE KNOW EARTH’S climate is changing, but who or what is causing it? The sun’s contribution comes up for discussion later this month when a noted UK solar scientist comes to Dublin to deliver a talk.

Solar Variability and Influences on Climate is the title chosen by Prof Mike Lockwood for his talk on September 23rd, during which he will argue that solar output has only a limited impact on warming.

Lockwood, a fellow of the Royal Society, is based in the department of meterorology at the University of Reading and in the space science and technology department in the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.

His presentation at the Emmet Theatre, Trinity College, Dublin, takes place on the first day of a specialist two-day international conference, The Transient Universe: from Exoplanets to Hypernovae. The meeting is organised by the Royal Irish Academy, the Royal Astronomical Society in the UK and the all-Ireland Astronomical Science Group of Ireland.

While the meeting is for working scientists, Lockwood’s Academy Times talk is a free event that should interest the wider public. He will describe some of the latest findings about the sun’s limited contribution to a warming climate. He will discuss what we already know about how the sun’s output varies over time. Some commentators have argued that this is the cause of global warming rather than human activity and the release of carbon dioxide.
Source Link: irishtimes.com
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Catastrophe and prosperity by Julian Morris
Saturday, August 28th 2010, 1:11 PM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Millions are suffering and thousands have died from flooding in Pakistan and China. An extraordinary heat wave in Russia sparked fires causing dreadful pollution and wiping out swathes of the wheat crop. Are these weather-related disasters caused by global warming? Do they portend to worse catastrophes? What can be done? Should Pakistan get more aid?

In its most recent report, the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, asserts that as the world becomes warmer, “flood magnitude and frequency are likely to increase in most regions.” This seems plausible: a warmer world is also likely to be a wetter world, as more water evaporates from the oceans into the atmosphere. But, although rainstorms last week put out some of the fires, Russia has a drought.

The IPCC also claims that droughts, too, are more likely in a warmer world – and that they have become more frequent since the 1970s, partly because of reduced precipitation. In fact the number of droughts reached a low point between the mid-1970s and the mid-1980s: The evidence shows there has been no statistically significant increase in droughts since the 1950s. Given that global temperatures appear to have risen considerably since then, it seems a stretch to blame the Russian drought on global warming.
Source Link: hurriyetdailynews.com
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Scientists Link Quiet Sun & Cold Winters by Doug L. Hoffman
Saturday, May 1st 2010, 2:31 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
Asking the somewhat obvious question, “are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity?” a group of scientists have announced that the answer is yes. While this may seem unsurprising, the finding is another indication that Earth's climate is not simply driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Even so, some scientists are only grudgingly accepting the finding, cautioning that this only applies in the central UK and refusing to admit that the Sun could affect global mean temperatures as well. Still, the researchers found that average solar activity has declined rapidly since 1985 and cosmogenic isotopes suggest a possible return to Maunder minimum conditions within the next 50 years. This could be a sign that climate science is starting to recover from its CO2 fixation.

Writing in Environmental Research Letters, Mike Lockwood et al. have verified that solar activity does seem to have a direct correlation with Earth's climate—at least in the central UK. The reason that the scope of the study is limited to that area, or at most Europe, is that it is one of the few regions that there is a reliable, continuous temperature record going back to the Little Ice Age. The authors explain their work:

Lower winter temperatures were common in Europe during the second half of the 17th century, famously allowing frost fairs to be held on the Thames in London before riverine developments increased the flow rate. These cold winters coincided with the Maunder minimum in solar activity when the Sun remained virtually free of sunspots for almost 50 years. However, establishing that this was not just a chance occurrence requires that the relationship continue to hold over a long interval, such that cold European winters become less frequent when solar activity is high and then more common again when solar activity falls. Various indicators show that during the recent minimum of the 11 year sunspot cycle, the Sun has been quieter than at any time in the previous 90 years. This yields an opportunity for a better test of the relationship between solar activity and cold European winters. To do this, we require two long and homogeneous time series: one which quantifies solar outputs relevant to seasonal/regional climate and the other relevant to European winter temperatures. We here use the Central England temperature (CET) data set which is the world's longest instrumental record of temperature and extends back to 1659, at the start of the Maunder minimum.

Click source to read FULL report by Doug L. Hoffman
Source Link: theresilientearth.com
Sun blamed for Europe’s colder winters
Wednesday, April 14th 2010, 5:47 AM EDT
Co2sceptic (Site Admin)
When the Sun’s magnetic output is low, winters in Europe tend to be cooler than average – whereas higher output corresponds to warmer winters. That is the conclusion of a new study by physicists in the UK and Germany that looked at the relationship between winter temperatures in England and the strength of the Sun's magnetic emissions over the last 350 years. The group predicts that, global warming notwithstanding, Europe is likely to continue to experience cold winters for many years to come.

The possibility of a link between European winter temperatures and solar activity can be seen in historical records from the second half of the seventeenth century. For about 50 years the Sun remained free of sunspots (in contrast to its normal 11-year cycle of sunspot highs and lows) and at this time Europe experienced a number of harsh winters. Motivated by the fact that the relatively cold winters of the past few years have come at a time when solar activity fell to the lowest values for 100 years, Mike Lockwood of the University of Reading and colleagues set out to establish whether or not there is a strong connection.

Lockwood and colleagues used data from the Central England Temperature record. This provides monthly temperature data from several monitoring stations in central England all the way back to 1659 – the world's longest instrumental temperature record. The researchers first removed the estimated contribution from the warming recorded in the northern hemisphere as a whole over the past century – which is widely believed to have been caused by increasing levels of manmade carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Hemispheric temperature records data back to 1850; to extend the analysis back to 1659 they used data from a number of different proxy sources, such as tree rings, isotope concentrations in stalagmites, sediment depths, lake heights and documentary evidence.

Click source to read FULL report
Source Link: physicsworld.com
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