Articles Tagged "Jan-Erik Solheim"
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Friday, June 15th 2012, 9:12 AM EDT
Temperature prognosis by the Hansen Group from 1988. The different scenarios assume 1.5% CO2 increase (blue), fixed CO2 emissions (green) and stopped CO2 emissions (red). In reality CO2 emissions have increased about 2.5% per year, which would be more than depicted the the blue curve scenario. The black curve is the actual temperature (smoothed 5-year mean). The Hansen-Model overestimated the temperature by 1,9°C and is thus a full 150% off. Graph supplemented as to Hansen et al. (1988)
At their Die kalte Sonne website, Professor Fritz Vahrenholt and Dr. Sebastian Lüning present a guest post by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim, who comments on the huge divergence between Hansen’s 1988 forecast and actual observations. I’ve translated his guest post in English:
What ever became of James Hansen’s 1988 temperature forecast? Time for an evaluation by Prof. Jan-Erik Solheim
One of the most important publications on “dangerous man-made climate change” is one by James Hansen and his colleagues in the year 1988 which appeared in the Journal of Geophysical Research. The title of the publication: Global Climate Changes as Forecast by Goddard Institute for Space Studies Three-Dimensional Model.
Click source to read FULL report from P. Gosselin
Wednesday, March 7th 2012, 7:52 AM EST
Relations between the length of a sunspot cycle and the average temperature in the same and the next cycle are calculated for a number of meteorologicalstations in Norway and in the North Atlantic region. No significant trend is found between the length of a cycle and the average temperature in the same cycle, but a significant negative trend is found between the length of a cycle and the temperature in the next cycle. This provides a tool to predict an average temperature decrease of at least 1.0 ◦C from solar cycle 23 to 24 for the stations and areas analyzed. We find for the Norwegian local stations investigated that 25–56% of the temperature increase the last 150 years may be attributed to the Sun. For 3 North Atlantic stations we get 63–72% solar contribution. This points to the Atlantic currents as reinforcing a solarsignal.
Click source to download PDF file, see also Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures
Sunday, December 18th 2011, 3:09 PM EST
Submitted on 14 Dec 2011
)and read FULL report from an-Erik Solheim, Kjell Stordahl & Ole Humlum.
Click source to download PDF file "Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures" (
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