Thank you for posting my article from Pravda, "Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age
." When I look at the accumulated data regarding the past history of the Ice Age cycle, I see a repeating pattern of Ice Age maximums and Interglacials that have recurred with considerable regularity of timing and intensity going back more than a million years.
I see no reason to assume, based on dubious evidence such as AGW and other unknowns, like anthropogenic global cooling or changes in solar output, that anything will interrupt the Ice Age cycle as it has been performing for the past million years and more.
Additional Comments below from Gregory Fegel
When I look at the data and the graphs, it appears obvious to me that the earth should be near the end of the current Interglacial and ready to begin the next Ice Age return. Maybe not in our lifetimes, but quite possibly within the next 1000 years. And I see no reason to assume that the return of the Ice Age won't begin within our lifetimes.
No one has shown me any data that proves that the next Ice Age has been postponed. Until I see some believable 'postponement data', I shall assume that the Ice Age shall keep to its usual schedule.
By way of analogy, if the annual frosts normally begin in a certain region around a known date, based on the historic record for that region, why should anyone expect some unproven factor (such as AGW or solar flares) to make an untimely intervention and postpone the annual onset of the frosts?
I don't see why my acceptance of the Ice Age cycle as we know it should inspire others to brand me as an 'alarmist', when most of the evidence we have for the known cycle of Ice Ages shows that our current Interglacial should indeed be near to its end. We also know that dramatic changes in climate can happen in a relatively short period of time.
It seems to me that instead of wasting so much 'hot air' on the dubious idea of AGW, human society would be wiser to at least develop some contingency plans for how the world's nations will respond to the onset of the next Ice Age, an event which is both inevitable and potentially imminent according to the data.
Cheers, and "Keep on the sunny side of life!"
Additional Comments from Gregory Fegel
My goal in writing "Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age" for Pravda was to alert readers to the fact that the known pattern and timing of the Ice Age cycle is still highly relevant to any discussion of long-term or extreme climate change, and that the unsubstantiated theory of AGW does not, and should not, supersede what we know about the Ice Age cycle.
My opinion is that CO2 levels are not likely to have a major impact on global climate, that variations in solar output likely influence climate on the scale of tens to hundreds of years, and that the larger Ice Age cycle is caused by variations in insolation due to the cycles of the earth's orbit and tilt.
I certainly cannot predict exactly when the return of the next Ice Age Glacial will begin, but it appears to me that, based on the previous pattern of Ice Age Glacials and Interglacials, we should be near the termination of the current Interglacial. I assumed that most readers would understand that I didn't specifically state when the next Ice Age Glacial would begin because I don't know precisely when it will begin -- and neither does anyone else.
I tried to keep my Pravda article brief and focused on the issue of well-established climatology versus the very restricted view of the AGW theorists. It was not my goal to provide an alternate explanation for short term climate change outside of the context of the Ice Age cycle.
Some opponents of the AGW theory have criticized my Pravda article for not addressing the issue of variations in solar output as a plausible cause for short term climate change that explains the warming and cooling of our current era more reasonably than the theory of AGW. In hindsight, I agree with those critics, and in any future articles I write on this topic, I shall make a point of addressing that issue.
Perhaps I should have mentioned in my article that variations in solar output may play a part in climate change on the level of the Lesser Dryas; the Medieval Warm Period; the 'Little Ice Age'; the recent late-20th century Solar Maximum, aka 'Global Warming'; and other relatively short-term climate variations, while the variations of the earth's orbit and tilt and resultant changes in insolation described by the Milankovitch cycles are the likely cause of the larger Ice Age cycle.