Articles Tagged "2010 Forecast"
Saturday, September 29th 2012, 9:23 AM EDT
Global warming set to continue
– Met Office
Global warming continues to pose a real threat that should not be ignored – a claim reinforced in a new study by scientists, reported in a supplement of the August issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. This is despite very small global temperature rises over the last 10 years.
the Met Office’s decadal forecast predicts renewed warming after 2010 with about half of the years to 2015 likely to be warmer globally than the current warmest year on record.
Steve Goddard: So far, the Met Office has been wrong on 93% of the days since 2011, with only 20 days warmer than the same day in 2010, and 635 days cooler than 2010.
Tuesday, December 28th 2010, 3:00 AM EST
The last phases of the strong 2009-2010 El Nino in early 2010 made this year another possible contender for the warmest year of the century. However, December 2010 has been one of the coldest Decembers in a century in many parts of the world, so 2010 probably won’t be warmer than 1998. But does it really matter?
Regardless of which year wins the temperature adjustment battle, how significant will that be? To answer that question, we need to look at a much longer time frame-centuries and millennia.
One of the best ways to look at long-term temperatures is with isotope data from the GISP2 Greenland ice core, from which temperatures for thousands of years can be determined. The ice core isotope data were obtained by Minze Stuiver and Peter Grootes from nuclear accelerator measurements of thousands of oxygen isotope ratios (16O/18O), which are a measure of paleo-temperatures at the time snow fell that was later converted to glacial ice. The age of such temperatures can be accurately measured from annual layers of accumulation of rock debris marking each summer's melting of ice and concentration of rock debris on the glacier.
to download PDF file from IceCap.us and read FULL report from Dr. Don Easterbrook
1934 has long been considered the warmest year of the past century. A decade ago, the closest challenger appeared to be 1998, a super-el nino year, but it trailed 1934 by 0.54C (0.97F). Since then, NASA GISS has “adjusted” the U.S. data for 1934 downward and 1998 upward (see December 25, 2010 post by Ira Glickstein) in an attempt to make 1998 warmer than 1934 and seemingly erased the original rather large lead of 1934 over 1998.
Monday, August 9th 2010, 8:00 PM EDT
Yahoo StumbleUpon Google Live Technorati del.icio.us Digg Reddit Mixx Propeller Forest and peat blazes continue to devastate large swathes of Central Russia, with a record-breaking heat wave forecast to go on until at least next week.
Russia's deadly wildfires, smog-filled cities and poor harvest are being seen by some environmentalists as signs of man-made climate change.
But astrophysicist and founder of the Weather Action Foundation Piers Corbyn puts the heat wave down to climate cycles.
“The climate has always been changing, but it has nothing to do with man,” Corbyn told RT. “In fact we predicted that there will be extreme heat in Russia and eastern Europe. It's caused by circulation patterns, caused by a combination of solar activity and the phases of the moon.”
See below YouTube
The thick blanket of acrid smog caused by relentless wildfires which has settled across the Russian capital has shown no sign of dispersing.
Monday, December 20th 2010, 3:01 PM EST
Take time out to read the following letters from Canada, as they debate the impact of less weather surface stations, mentioned here, Surface Temperature Records: Policy Driven Deception?
, last week
Re: " 'lIllogical approach' fills void left by climate authorities,
" by George Witt, Letters, Dec. 14.
In this letter, George Witt made several misleading and incorrect allegations concerning the reliability of the global temperature record, as well as the credibility of groups who produce them. I do share Witt's concern about the rapid decline of monitoring sites used to generate these global analyses, especially given that the Canadian Arctic is among the fastest warming regions of the world.
And it is a mystery why so few of the available Canadian stations make it into the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) database used by NASA. Regardless, the Clear Climate Code team (Nick Barnes) has demonstrated that the exclusion of monitoring sites from Canada has virtually no impact on temperature trends for regions of the globe north of 64 N. Their analysis showed that region is warming at over 5 C per century (30-year trend), compared to the long-term global warming trend near 2 C per century.
Witt refers to a recent study which suggests that inappropriate station location makes U.S. temperature trends unreliable. However, a peer-reviewed paper (Menne et al. 2010) has shown that the temperature trend over the U.S. derived using all data is almost identical to the trend derived using a subset of data with ideally located stations. In fact, including the "problem" sites produces a lower rate of warming.
Friday, December 11th 2009, 1:16 PM EST
Well, you’ve got to hand it to them. Fresh from its wash-out “barbecue summer” the Met Office is predicting that next year is likely to be the warmest one ever, exceeding 1998, which holds the present record.
The logic is that there is forecast to be an El Nino, which always heats things up, next year as in 1998: if it is a strong as it was then, the extra amount of greenhouse gases that have accumulated over the intervening 12 years should ensure a record year. But if – as after a similar forecast for 2007 – the El Nino does not materialise or turns out to be weak, the Met Office will be left with egg on its face again,and sceptics will have a field day.
But just suppose the forecast turns out to be right. What will the sceptics do then? At the heart of their case is a claim that the world is cooling down - based on fixing the starting point in the anomalously warm 1998 and drawing a line from there, even though beginning in 1997 or 1999 would give very different results. Statisticians have condemned the practice, but they have gone on with it.
Friday, February 19th 2010, 5:28 PM EST
A couple of weeks old but of interest for the rest of the year to come!
Sunday, January 9th 2011, 10:03 AM EST
Michael Steketee, writing in The Australian
in January 2011, echoed the BBC (whose journalists’ pension fund is heavily weighted towards “green” “investments”) and other climate-extremist vested interests in claiming that 2010 was the warmest year on record worldwide. Mr. Steketee’s short article makes two dozen questionable assertions, which either require heavy qualification or are downright false. His assertions will be printed in bold
face: the truth will appear in Roman face.
1. BASED ON PRELIMINARY DATA TO NOVEMBER 30, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND AUSTRALIA WERE THE WARMEST ON RECORD LAST YEAR, AS WERE THOSE FOR THE PAST DECADE.
The record only began ten decades ago. As for sea temperatures, they are less significant for analyzing “global warming” than estimated total ocean heat content. A recent paper by Professors David Douglass and Robert Knox of Rochester University, New York, has established that – contrary to various climate-extremist assertions – there has been no net accumulation of “missing energy” in the form of heat in the oceans worldwide in the six years since ocean heat content was first reliably measured by the 3000 automated ARGO bathythermographs in 2003. This finding implies that the amount of warming we can expect from even quite a large increase in CO2 concentration is far less than the IPCC and other climate-extremist groups maintain.
to download PDF file to read FULL reply to Michael Steketee's article in The Australian from Christopher Monckton of Brenchley
Saturday, January 29th 2011, 3:18 PM EST
Dr Benny Peiser and Dr David Whitehouse, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), have written to John Hirst, chief executive of the beleaguered Met Office, asking for an explanation of a press release issued by his organisation on January 20 and headed “2010 – a near record year”. This won headlines by claiming that last year was hotter than any other in the past decade.
When the two men examined the original data from which this claim was derived – compiled by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and the Met Office’s Hadley Centre – it clearly showed 2010 as having been cooler than 2005 (and 1998) and equal to 2003. It emerged that, for the purposes of the press release, the data had been significantly adjusted.
Comparing the actual data for each year, from 2001 to 2010, with that given in the press release shows that for four years the original figure has been adjusted downwards. Only for 2010 was the data revised upwards, by the largest adjustment of all, allowing the Met Office to claim that 2010 was the hottest year of the decade.
I asked the Met Office to comment on what seems like yet another embarrassing example of juggling with the figures. It denied the charge and I shall report on its lengthily evasive reply, once the GWPF has had a more considered response from Mr Hirst.
Friday, December 31st 2010, 1:07 PM EST
Diverging predictions of temperature rise from the IPCC and from Akisofu's hypothesis of continuing natural recovery from the Little Ice Age with multi-decadal oscillations superposed.
(Picture credit: Natural Science).
Global warming during the twenty first century may be significantly less than that forecast by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), according to a new paper.
Physicist and Arctic research expert Syun-Ichi Akasofu of the International Arctic Research Center at the University of Alaska Fairbanks in the US predicts that the temperature in 2100 will be 0.5C ± 0.2C higher than today, rather than the 4.0C± 2.0C predicted by the IPCC.
Akasofu is an acknowledged climate change sceptic – although he prefers the term critic - and his prediction is based on an attempt to separate out the effects of naturally-driven warming from man-made greenhouse warming. Akasofu states that the warming trend recorded during the nineteenth and twentieth century may be a combination of a natural recovery from the so called Little Ice Age mixed in with greenhouse warming.
Click source to read FULL report from Leon Clifford
Wednesday, February 9th 2011, 8:44 AM EST
(Reuters) - Remember 2010? U.S. and international scientists reckon it tied for the warmest year on record, supporting findings of unequivocal global climate change. Climate skeptics remain unconvinced.
Those who study the climate skeptic position say this raises echoes of scientific controversies of the past, including the debate over the health hazards of tobacco.
In Washington, the most vocal denier of human-caused climate change is U.S. Senator James Inhofe, an Oklahoma Republican who has repeatedly dismissed the idea as a hoax.
"Actually, right now we're in the third year of a cooling period," Inhofe said in December, before the January release of statistics from the U.S. National Climate Data Center, NASA and the World Meteorological Organization showing 2010 tied for the hottest year since modern record-keeping began in 1880.
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