The above extract is from the "Red Warning" report issued at the start of January from Piers Corbyn at WeatherAction.com
You would have noticed that there have been several recent commentators indicating that the current Sudden Polar Stratospheric Warming has induced a change to weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere producing a much colder circulation of air.
According to this report from Piers Corbyn, there will be Additional Stratospheric Warming, making the current conditions even worse, also including in this forecast is a higher chance of M7+ Earthquake, and an enhancement to storms....more to follow.
More energy seems to have been added to Tropical Cyclone "Narelle" as it has now become a CAT4 from CAT2....I have found yet another report concerning some more solar activity earlier today and would not be suprised if this is the "cause" of the additional "power up". It is of interest that this is taking place during the first two lunar phases of the year ("New Moon & Perigee").
Latest report from SolarHam.net..Active Sunspot cluster 1654 continues to produce C-Class and low level M-Class solar flares. Region 1654, now classified as a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic group, produced a moderate M1.2 solar flare at 09:11 UTC, followed by a long duration M1.0 event peaking at 15:07 UTC Friday morning. This region will continue to be a threat for moderate to strong solar flares within the next 24-48 hours.
As promised I will keep track of these Tropical Storms that "power up" when they are OVER CAT1 with a seperate tag (Tropical Storm "Power Up" 2013) so you can track them as they crop up.....the FIRST doesn't disappoint, it has gone from CAT1 to CAT2 TODAY and there IS a solar flare that links to this event.....This YouTube is from SolarHam.net
Sunspot 1654 produced a long duration C8.0 solar flare at 17:46 UTC on Thursday afternoon.
A new paper published in the Journal of Climate examines landfalling tropical cyclones along the eastern Pacific coast between the 16th and 20th centuries and finds the most persistent cycle lasted ~ 12 years and coincided with the ~11-12 year solar cycle.
Numerous studies have been conducted to document long term trends in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. However, the eastern Pacific has not received as much attention as other basins. Here we attempt the identification of TC formation in the Mexican eastern Pacific ocean before 1950. Using bibliographical and historical file consultation, we constructed a catalog of events related to intense storms and possible TCs that made landfall in the Mexican Pacific coasts. Between 1536 and 1948 we found a total of 119 events related to TCs. Then, using the Saffir-Simpson scale and the climatology of the region as the criteria to evaluate each event, we found 85 TCs. Furthermore, we constructed a historical time series of TCs between 1701 and 2010. The spectral analysis showed periodicities of ~2.6, 4, 5, 12, 16, 39 and 105 years, that coincide with some large-scale climatic phenomena and also with solar activity. In particular, the ~12-year cycle is the most persistent periodicity in our study.
This active period was NOT forecast as a Pier Corbyn "Red Warning" R4/R5 period and there is also no current indication of a "power up" of tropical storms going on, although for the past two days we have seen a CAT1 being present.
This looks as if it could be the start of bigger events to come, maybe this is a second peak for SC24?...more to follow
The most active sunspot so far is emerging over the sun's northeastern limb. Crackling witth flares, it unleashed an M1.7-class eruption on Jan. 5th at 09:34 UT that sent a wave of ionization rippling through the upper atmosphere over Europe. More flares appear to be in the offing; stay tuned....
With just a day or so to go before the next Piers Corbyn R4 Red Warning period (see chart below for 1st-3rd January 2013 and YouTube of SolarFlare from 29th December) there would seem to be an indication of solar activity taking place.
The above display from TropicalStormRisk.com shows that Cyclone "Freda" has now become Cat3 in the past day, and from what we have seen during the past year, this is a very good indication that as we enter a high level R4/R5 period we can expect to see storm enhancements and a higher then average risk for Earthquake and volcano activity....more to follow.
BTW, from 1st January I will use a new "tag" so you can keep track of these storm events during 2013, it will be called "Tropical Storm Power Up 2013", and at the end of the year you will be able to list how many of these storms are associated with solar activity. From the results I have seen so far from 2012, I don't think there was ANY events above Cat1 (Cat2+) without an associated solar flare, lets see if we can repeat this again next year, and well done to Piers Corbyn and Ulric for their work in showing the timing of these events
It’s known as the Great Arctic Cyclone, and when it roared out of Siberia last August, storm watchers knew it was unusual. Hurricane-like storms are very common in the Arctic, but the most powerful of them (which are still far less powerful than tropical hurricanes) tend to come in winter.
It wasn’t clear at the time, however, whether the August storm was truly unprecedented.
Now it is.
A study published in Geophysical Research Letters looks at no fewer than 19,625 Arctic storms and concludes that in terms of size, duration and several other of what the authors call “key cyclone properties,” the Great Cyclone was the most extreme summer storm, and the 13th most powerful storm -- summer or winter -- since modern satellite observations began in 1979.
Click source to read FULL report from Michael D. Lemonick (this is a GREEN site, but Michael has put the article together well:)
With the end of 2012 in sight I thought I would give you a quick summary of how the Piers Corbyn Earthquake and Volcano trial went this year. I tried to monitor EQ's from a Magnitudes of 6.5+, and this was not only very messy to try and analyse, I also got a lot of stick from a couple of AGW supporters as regards the stats were concerned, and rightly so. But now I have found something even they will find difficult to argue with.
I have now settled at Earthquakes with a Magnitude of 7+ to show what I consider to be changes of real significance between Solar Activity and Earthquakes using the Piers Corbyn "R" rating.
It's not a perfect situation to make a call and yes there is a flaw in all of this, and that is, the condition of the Earth's crust! This, understandably is an unknown variable, and as you can see below, there was nothing going on above M7 for several months in a row (May, June & July) [Note, I have to conclude this three month period of >=M7 was NOT random as this is a cluster of three months. Maybe a clear sign the Earth's crust was either in a stable condition or that the Sun was not packing any force in her punches!]
As a result of this three month lull, I will have to see what next year brings, and who knows in 2013 I may have to revise this view.
The fact is Piers Corbyn has a skill of pinpointing the monthly periods when he expects there to be high level Earthquakes M7+ associated with high Solar Activity [R4/R5]
The numbers are: There were 16 M7+ Earthquakes during 2012
Associated with Piers Corbyn Solar Activity Rating R4/R5 = 11 (69%)
Average Number of days in month for a R4/R5 Period 8 (27%)
A strong 6.8-magnitude earthquake hit off the coast of the South Pacific island of Vanuatu on Saturday, the US Geological Survey said, but no immediate tsunami warning was issued.
The quake struck at a depth of more than 200 kilometres (124 miles) at around 9.30am (2230 GMT Friday) some 130 kilometres north of Santo, USGS said.
"It's quite deep ... so there's no tsunami," said David Jepsen, a seismologist with Geoscience Australia which measured the quake at 6.6 magnitude.
"I think it's well away from (the capital) Port Vila... but it's closer to some of the islands further to the northwest, but they would have had some moderate shaking really," he told AFP....click hindustantimes.com for more
From the latest information posted at SpaceWeather.com there WAS some CME activity at the end of 20th and at the start of the 21st December indicating a some Solar Climate Change coming our way......more to follow soon